ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Comanche]

Here is Jeff Lindners Email this morning-

92 L:



Now on to this nightmare!



While the system looks very well organized on satellite images and even the radar presentation out of San Juan, the aircraft nor the San Juan radar can find a closed low level center. There appear to be one…maybe..two mid level centers in this mass…one N of PR and one S of PR. Convection this morning has concentrated south of PR and this may be where a low level center attempts to form today. Upper level outflow has greatly improved and the only negative factor for development is the proximity to the mountainous land areas of PR and DR.



Track:



What was decent clustering yesterday is all but out the window with large spread and at best poor agreement. The way I see there are 3 solutions:



1) 92L tracks along and through the large islands of the Lesser Antilles resulting in little intensification…possibly remaining an open wave. This produces a more westward track similar to that suggested by the CMC and NOGAPS. If the center in fact forms south of PR near the deepest convection…this may be right.



2) The system tracks just N of the large islands remaining over the water and intensifies as it moves into the Bahamas. There is a weakness in the ridge currently over FL this weekend that will lift out to the NE early next week. If 92L is far enough N and moves fast enough it could get caught in this weakness and turn WNW and NW and possibly N as suggested by the GFDL, HWRF and 50% by the GFS. One thing to note is that the GFDL is initializing this system way too intense right now and spins it up too quickly…likely resulting in more poleward movement and trough capture.



3) The system follows # 2 except as the trough lifts out to the NE early next week strong SW ATL ridging builds back westward into FL blocking the system from heading too far N and resulting in a turn back to the west toward FL and then into the Gulf of Mexico. This is supported by the GFS and a few of the tropical models. On this plan the system would reach the Bahamas and slow greatly as it is not fully captured by the trough and steering currents weaken as the ridge builds over top of the system, then it turns west and strikes the state of FL and crosses into the Gulf.



All models show intensification of this system at the middle to end of their runs with the GFDL and HWRF being extremely intense and showing a major hurricane heading for the SE US coast. However the GFDL appears to be tracking a 35kt mid level center and so it is spinning up that when the system is not closed at the surface. The CMC has a deep hurricane over the E Gulf of Mexico turning toward the NW while the rest of the guidance is weaker. SHIPS guidance running off the GFS conditions shows 74kts at 72 hours and then 92kts at 120 hours. Weaker may be the correct route on this one given the potential land interaction.



Your guess is as good as mine on which possibility will pan out. I think 1 and 3 look the most possible at the moment especially given the possible location of a surface center. If the center does form S of PR you can see below that all guidance will be off by 10’s of miles to the north which will have impacts on the downstream track. This reminds me a lot of TS Debby several years ago which killed itself by tracking along the N coast of the DR and then into the mountains of E Cuba. I would sure hate to be NHC having to put a Day 5 forecast point on a map if this is declared today…chances are it will be grossly inaccurate given the variables at play.

[GreenSky]

Here's a current surface plot with satellite overlay. I put an "L" at the location of the LLC. It's there, plain as day, just west of northern PR in the surface obs. Pressure in the area around 1010mb. The LLC is just about in the center of the convection now.

From the location you pointed out and its current west motion, 92L will make landfall in DR....no just scrape the coast, but actual LANDFALL....which will disrupt formation of LLC....its moving way too fast (won't have time to form before hitting DR), and NHC will take another 3 days to upgrade I suspect

[deltadog03]

Derek's position makes much more sense given the trend the last couple of days and there is NO indication that the blob is nothing more than a MLC. We have seen this countless times. That MLC should wind down, I would imagine and convection should begin to blossom with the possible llc north of pr. I can see some sort of a hint of rotation there as well....Man that TUTT to "its" NE is on the move....

[Aric Dunn]

although and east wind at aquidiila does notgo over to well the postion.. possible terrain casuing some problems..
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 6&map.y=99

[Normandy]

If people think going over DR won't hurt this system they might be very disappointed......scraping the N coast of Hispanola will totally kill this systems southern inflow from the Caribbean, and that could be VERY problematic for 92L. My confidence in a potential major hurricane out of this has gone down, at least for the next 4 days.

[alan1961]

Really tough to tell where the actual center is, radar clearly shows something turning down there but also the radar shows a fairly broad but steady ciruclation emerging from PR, which is clearly the circulation the models and the NHC have latched onto.

Who knows what one will form!

EDIT---if the southerly center is the center then given its still heading slightly south of west it may even possibly miss the main mountions of the island to the south....

was thinking that miss of the mountains to KWT..just depends where the main core wants to go..maybe looking at a split here.

[jlauderdal]

If people think going over DR won't hurt this system they might be very disappointed......scraping the N coast of Hispanola will totally kill this systems southern inflow from the Caribbean, and that could be VERY problematic for 92L. My confidence in a potential major hurricane out of this has gone down, at least for the next 4 days.

if its a mid level circ than the damage wouldn't be as intense

[KWT]

I really don't think it'll be a huge deal to be honest Normandy, its going to bursting upon hitting land which will sutatin it for a while and the heat over land will likelt trigger storms as well anyway for a time, if this had a well defined inflow I'd agree but really any inflow isn't that impressive IMO.

[jlauderdal]

Really tough to tell where the actual center is, radar clearly shows something turning down there but also the radar shows a fairly broad but steady ciruclation emerging from PR, which is clearly the circulation the models and the NHC have latched onto.

Who knows what one will form!

EDIT---if the southerly center is the center then given its still heading slightly south of west it may even possibly miss the main mountions of the island to the south....

was thinking that miss of the mountains to KWT..just depends where the main core wants to go..maybe looking at a split here.

haha, a core and 92L shouldnt be used in the same breath

[Sal Collaziano]

Yeah.. It looks like it's moving a lot further west than anybody had planned on...

If people think going over DR won't hurt this system they might be very disappointed......scraping the N coast of Hispanola will totally kill this systems southern inflow from the Caribbean, and that could be VERY problematic for 92L. My confidence in a potential major hurricane out of this has gone down, at least for the next 4 days.

[Normandy]

Yes and if it remains a mid level circulation, it won't develop....DR will hurt the development chances of this system substantially....Interaction with the north coast of DR=very little chance of a good surface circulation forming/sustaining itself.

[GreenSky]

Derek's position makes much more sense given the trend the last couple of days and there is NO indication that the blob is nothing more than a MLC. We have seen this countless times. That MLC should wind down, I would imagine and convection should begin to blossom with the possible llc north of pr. I can see some sort of a hint of rotation there as well....Man that TUTT to "its" NE is on the move....

What influence will the TUTT have on 92L and do you believe 92L will clear DR just to the north...I have a feeling that by the time it starts establishing a well defined LLC for upgrade, the DR will rip it apart and 92L may never be upgraded until it hits the Gulf Stream...I believe that that in the past, too many have downplayed DR land interaction

[Rincon]

Aric -- Not sure about the east wind from Aguadilla. I am in Rincon and have hgad South for the hour or so. 15-20 gustng to 25+. I have a Davis VP 2 Weather station and am also adding my CWOP page so you can see the wind/pressure up until about 30 mins ago when the lights went out. Also is my station homepage.


http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/C8702
http://www.rinconadventure.com/Weather/wxindex.php

Rincon

[JPmia]

Center is definitely just west of northern PR. Outflow looks impressive this morning. It's a TS aloft, but not at the surface. One thing I notice in the many surface obs around the LLC is that the surface winds are up to 15-25 kts now, whereas they were in the 5-10 kt range around the center yesterday afternoon. Maybe it won't be long until it's upgraded. The suspense is killing me. At least I got to sleep past 3:30 this morning.

Track right along the northern DR coast looks good. Big question is when the northerly turn occurs on Sunday. I have a feeling the current model guidance taking it across the eastern Bahamas will be switching back a bit more to the west over the next day or so. Florida's definitely a possible target. The good news about the track close to DR and eastern Cuba is that the proximity to land would slow intensification. But being a small system, if it gets just a little offshore it can strengthen quickly to a hurricane. Possible ETA south Florida late Monday morning if it heads that way.

Ok, you got my attention. That kind of time line will catch many down here by surprise I think. But we should all have our preparations already done by June 1 right? right

[alan1961]

That gfs setup dont half look scary for Florida and the Gulf...almost that K word scenario ...CMC also is alarming too

Betsy (1965) did a loop-de loop out in the atlantic then headed to the gulf... but this far out with this weak a system this far away, any comparisions to "K" or other storms is pure speculation at best. lions and tigers and bears oh my!

better tell that to the guys who draws these maps up shawee..we only look at them

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Yes and if it remains a mid level circulation, it won't develop....DR will hurt the development chances of this system substantially....Interaction with the north coast of DR=very little chance of a good surface circulation forming/sustaining itself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

Looking at the latest loop I'm not sure it's not going due west which could cause it to split the DR right down the middle. That would definitely damage development as well as change the eventual track.

[gatorcane]

Well this is one intimidating looking blob to me

Look for the "LLC" to "dance" along the northern coast of Hispaniola. Land interaction especially with the mountains creates some interesting movements with tropical systems.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric -- Not sure about the east wind from Aguadilla. I am in Rincon and have hgad South for the hour or so. 15-20 gustng to 25+. I have a Davis VP 2 Weather station and am also adding my CWOP page so you can see the wind/pressure up until about 30 mins ago when the lights went out. Also is my station homepage.


http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/C8702
http://www.rinconadventure.com/Weather/wxindex.php

Rincon

sweet you near antonio's !!

[KWT]

Hispaniola didn't exactly destroy the wave that became Elena in 1985 did it?

There probably will be a weak LLC and it may have a hard time doing anything but given the bursting thats occuring and given its only skimming the northern side I don't think it will weaken that greatly.

Even IF it does nothing till after DR, its going to get into super warm waters with a very favorable pattern, I'd still expect a strong hurricane out of this...

[GreenSky]

Well this is one intimidating looking blob to me

Look for the "LLC" to "dance" along the northern coast of Hispaniola. Land interaction especially with the mountains creates some interesting movements with tropical systems.

Isn't 92L moving more west now than west northwest...if that's the case, its digging itself a grave in DR