ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

Yes it is moving west towards DR and land interaction is almost certain at this point but erratic motions can happen so look out for them......

[HURAKAN]

[Rincon]

Near all of the breaks up the hill a few hunderd feet so have a nice view of the Mona Passage Not a big surfer but love to head out and watch when the big swells come in. This has been strange on the west coast with hardly any rain here and mostly wind. Only have 28 MPH as top gust but has been consistently blowing with not too many lulls.

[Blown Away]

Best Track 12z: 18.65N/67.5W, what does this position do to the models that were initialized on the E side of PR?

[KWT]

Heading west for now as others have said, if its forming an LLC now it will wobble about and then as gatorcane said land interaction can cause funnyy tracks, look at Ivan 04 if you waant an example of that when it wobbled around a few islands.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Best Track 12z: 18.65N/67.5W, what does this position do to the models that were initialized on the E side of PR?

the most recent (12z) models were initialized off the WNW coast of Puerto Rico.

[Normandy]

Hispaniola didn't exactly destroy the wave that became Elena in 1985 did it?

There probably will be a weak LLC and it may have a hard time doing anything but given the bursting thats occuring and given its only skimming the northern side I don't think it will weaken that greatly.

Even IF it does nothing till after DR, its going to get into super warm waters with a very favorable pattern, I'd still expect a strong hurricane out of this...

I disagree. Here are my thoughts.
If you look at most model runs, many models have this not only skimming the DR, but also skimming Cuba up until it is SSE of Miami. Assuming it does this, it will spend the next two days traversing the coastlines of very mountainous islands, thus having two days of possible disruption of southern inflow. If it does this, I doubt it will get above 45-50 mph. Once it does that, it has very little time before turning north and impacting Florida, maybe 24-36 hours. Assuming it doesn't do Wilma-like intensification, I doubt it becomes anything major (mind you I am thinking it comes close to S Florida in some regard, if further east then I would have to rethink this). The DR won't destroy this wave, but it will keep it from deepening substantially, you can bet on that. Not bashing just sharing my own thoughts

[CourierPR]

The apparent center looks to be heading north of west on satellite. Don't write this one off yet.

[Air Force Met]

I really don't think it'll be a huge deal to be honest Normandy, its going to bursting upon hitting land which will sutatin it for a while and the heat over land will likelt trigger storms as well anyway for a time, if this had a well defined inflow I'd agree but really any inflow isn't that impressive IMO.

Its a very big deal. Its the difference b/w remaining a wave for the next 36 hours (and disorganizing further) and developing. If this has a date with the island...and I think it does...you can stop worrying about any ind of development in the near term.

Personally...really surprised it did not develop yesterday...but that is why I said 90% and not 100%. You never know. It looked way more impressive than it actually was...and that is still the case.

[Aric Dunn]

Near all of the breaks up the hill a few hunderd feet so have a nice view of the Mona Passage Not a big surfer but love to head out and watch when the big swells come in. This has been strange on the west coast with hardly any rain here and mostly wind. Only have 28 MPH as top gust but has been consistently blowing with not too many lulls.

awsome... Ricon board and surf still there??
your about to get pounded in a little while from the South if it makes it over the hilly terrain there .. looks like its stuck down there on the SW coast..

the center looks to be taking shape there in the mona passsage..

[Blown Away]

18.6N/67.5W moving West, it's going through the spine of Hispanola and may come out to the SE of Cuba. If it goes down the middle of Hispanola I bet it comes out an open wave.

[gatorcane]

Hispaniola didn't exactly destroy the wave that became Elena in 1985 did it?

There probably will be a weak LLC and it may have a hard time doing anything but given the bursting thats occuring and given its only skimming the northern side I don't think it will weaken that greatly.

Even IF it does nothing till after DR, its going to get into super warm waters with a very favorable pattern, I'd still expect a strong hurricane out of this...

I disagree. Here are my thoughts.
If you look at most model runs, many models have this not only skimming the DR, but also skimming Cuba up until it is SSE of Miami. Assuming it does this, it will spend the next two days traversing the coastlines of very mountainous islands, thus having two days of possible disruption of southern inflow. If it does this, I doubt it will get above 45-50 mph. Once it does that, it has very little time before turning north and impacting Florida, maybe 24-36 hours. Assuming it doesn't do Wilma-like intensification, I doubt it becomes anything major (mind you I am thinking it comes close to S Florida in some regard, if further east then I would have to rethink this). The DR won't destroy this wave, but it will keep it from deepening substantially, you can bet on that. Not bashing just sharing my own thoughts

The worst case scenario is that 92L skims or goes along the northern coast or northern part of Hispaniola, maintains itself (it won't strengthen obviously) and then pops out on the NW side of Hispaniola and then moves WNW just north of Cuba over very warm SSTs strengthening rapidly with at least 400-500 miles of real estate to work with before getting up into South Florida or the Central and Northern Bahamas....

A major cane is still not out of the question. Remember Ernesto from 2006? NHC warned it could become a major before impacting South Florida when it was emerging off the NE Cuban coast. At that point Ernesto was a measely tropical storm with 65 mph winds and only about 150 miles of water to work with. NHC and everybody should give much respect for the warm waters of the FL straits and the Gulf stream especially when upper-level winds are very favorable. Ernesto did not become a major, but it doesn't mean another system can't when presented with favorable conditions.

[KWT]

Yeah thats fair enough it won't do any more then possible hold steady overland I agree Normandy.

My main difference is I agree with some of the global models which have this having about 72hrs over warm waters (bar maybe a little disruption from the larger Bahamas islands) to do something. However IF it does end up further west and does make landfall in Flordia then it probably won't have enough time to do anything serious.

AFM...I don't think its a big deal on the grand scale of things, I mean I suppose when it comes down to a named system yeah its does matter BUT then overall structure IMO won't be harmed all that much by land interaction, giving pretty much everything at the mid levels anyway...

[tolakram]

I really think this is going over land. The models that initialized neat the correct location have this going over Hispaniola. What we saw last night was the circulation moving further south than expected. With the Low plotted by wxman I don't see how this is going to get north of the island.

[GreenSky]

18.6N/67.5W moving West, it's going through the spine of Hispanola and may come out to the SE of Cuba. If it goes down the middle of Hispanola I bet it comes out an open wave.

Wow! what a change...it is moving farther west than predicted....if this keeps up, forget open wave, 92L will disappear altogether..

Now even mets are agreeing with this such as Air Force Met, who believes that 92L may never develop if it landfalls in DR

[HURAKAN]

Enough for an upgrade? Maybe the NHC will wait for the RECON to confirm.

Great update as always by Jeff Masters about "The Joker."

Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[weatherwoman]

I agree with the person from beaufort, that is how it happens always, but i think it might end up around carteret county this time, lets wait and see models are getting closer to us each new model run

[Cyclone1]

Looks like any LLC is over land in PR.

[Normandy]

Gatorcane, I would not use Ernesto as an example....because Ernesto actually was severely disrupted by the DR and Cuba. It never even reached hurricane strength after its encounter with Cuba. I'm not ruling out a major hurricane, but one has to admit that the chances of this becoming a major decreases exponentially with the more land it encounters. And an encounter with the DR and Cuba will not help this system become a major hurricane. I'd say 10% chance at best right now imo. That being said, lets not downplay this system, because it likely will cause some tragic deaths in Hispanola today because of heavy rain.

[Aric Dunn]

well for the first time is see much imoroved low level structure on visible .. with lots of curved band to the nw.. extrapolatin the center from sat was much easier today.. casue well something is fianlly reflecting at the surface..