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fox13weather wrote:92L is going to travel right over the spine of Hispinola. Despite most models showing a significant hurricane somewhere east of Florida next week, it is certainly a questionable scenario. The models are assuming the wave will be intact and that it will rapidly intensify if and when it moves away from land. Sure, it could happen, but there is also a chance that the wave will be too disorganized.
Air Force Met wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:through the next 36 hours, the chances of development are fairly small (If I were writing the NHC outlook, I'd drop it from red to yellow for the time being). Will not get development over Hispaniola.
However, I fully expect development to begin on Sunday afternoon, IF THIS DOES NOT HIT CUBA. I am also not convinced that this misses Cuba any longer
This may increase the threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however
This is what I am thinking as well. Give it a couple of days...but the longer it takes...the more the GoM threat.
Also...I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the low levels try to get going on the south side of the DR.
Air Force Met wrote:
This is what I am thinking as well. Give it a couple of days...but the longer it takes...the more the GoM threat.
Also...I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the low levels try to get going on the south side of the DR.
vbhoutex wrote:Air Force Met wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:through the next 36 hours, the chances of development are fairly small (If I were writing the NHC outlook, I'd drop it from red to yellow for the time being). Will not get development over Hispaniola.
However, I fully expect development to begin on Sunday afternoon, IF THIS DOES NOT HIT CUBA. I am also not convinced that this misses Cuba any longer
This may increase the threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however
This is what I am thinking as well. Give it a couple of days...but the longer it takes...the more the GoM threat.
Also...I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the low levels try to get going on the south side of the DR.
You are the second pro -met that has suggested this possibility that I have seen today. I don't like the increase in the threat to the GOM if this happens.
vacanechaser wrote:fox13weather wrote:92L is going to travel right over the spine of Hispinola. Despite most models showing a significant hurricane somewhere east of Florida next week, it is certainly a questionable scenario. The models are assuming the wave will be intact and that it will rapidly intensify if and when it moves away from land. Sure, it could happen, but there is also a chance that the wave will be too disorganized.
not to sure about that... looking at the radar loop, it appears that a center maybe developing off the northwest coast of puerto rico and looks to be moving northwest, or west northwest...
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Extremeweatherguy wrote:While I agreed earlier that I saw a more west motion, I have got to say that after looking at this loop a little longer, it now appears that there is more of a WNW motion to the "center" of 92L...
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
Am I just seeing things?
Air Force Met wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:through the next 36 hours, the chances of development are fairly small (If I were writing the NHC outlook, I'd drop it from red to yellow for the time being). Will not get development over Hispaniola.
However, I fully expect development to begin on Sunday afternoon, IF THIS DOES NOT HIT CUBA. I am also not convinced that this misses Cuba any longer
This may increase the threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however
This is what I am thinking as well. Give it a couple of days...but the longer it takes...the more the GoM threat.
Also...I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the low levels try to get going on the south side of the DR.
george_r_1961 wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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This has both unfavorable conditions to the west of it and interaction with land to contend with over the next 36-48 hours.
It MAY become a TD in this time frame but its gotta get away from land and shear for significant development to occur. And that may be another 48 hours.
I know im going out on a limb here but if it does develop, and by early next week it may very well do so, the landfall question will be when not if. I dont think any of us are seeing this becoming a fish.
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