ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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HURAKAN
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#3721 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:35 am

This morning:

Image

Now:

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3722 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:37 am

fox13weather wrote:92L is going to travel right over the spine of Hispinola. Despite most models showing a significant hurricane somewhere east of Florida next week, it is certainly a questionable scenario. The models are assuming the wave will be intact and that it will rapidly intensify if and when it moves away from land. Sure, it could happen, but there is also a chance that the wave will be too disorganized.


not to sure about that... looking at the radar loop, it appears that a center maybe developing off the northwest coast of puerto rico and looks to be moving northwest, or west northwest...



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#3723 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:37 am

then RDU has this to say.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
438 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPDATED AS OF 438 AM FRIDAY...

NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

THE LATEST MODEL SUITE CONTINUED THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
THE RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NC. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL FEATURE TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES NEXT WEEK. WE WILL FOLLOW THE TPC/HPC GUIDANCE
SPECIFICALLY FOR OUR WEATHER FORECASTS. THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN
THE COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW... FOLLOWING THIS TPC/HPC GUIDANCE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF A TROPICAL FEATURE THAT COULD BE OFF THE FL/GA/SC COASTS BETWEEN
WED-FRI. MUCH MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS.

OUR FORECASTS OVER CENTRAL NC REMAINED ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE EARLIER FORECASTS. BASICALLY PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 65-70. HIGHS
86-92. SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR CONVECTION WED-THU.
&&
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Re: Re:

#3724 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:38 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:through the next 36 hours, the chances of development are fairly small (If I were writing the NHC outlook, I'd drop it from red to yellow for the time being). Will not get development over Hispaniola.

However, I fully expect development to begin on Sunday afternoon, IF THIS DOES NOT HIT CUBA. I am also not convinced that this misses Cuba any longer

This may increase the threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however


This is what I am thinking as well. Give it a couple of days...but the longer it takes...the more the GoM threat.

Also...I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the low levels try to get going on the south side of the DR.


You are the second pro -met that has suggested this possibility that I have seen today. I don't like the increase in the threat to the GOM if this happens.
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Re: Re:

#3725 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:39 am

Air Force Met wrote:
This is what I am thinking as well. Give it a couple of days...but the longer it takes...the more the GoM threat.

Also...I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the low levels try to get going on the south side of the DR.


Hmm there was an eddy down further south earlier, this seems to have gone but its possible that something new tries to form as the main center goes overland...saying that theres nothing to sugges thaty is going to happen right now and one could equally say there is a better chance of something happening to the north of the island given the more favorable conditons up there for convective development but both needs watching...would really mess up the models if that happened!
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#3726 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:41 am

Now for MoreHead City

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
256 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SO I WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. BY TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE
WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENTER THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE. BIG QUESTION MARK FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3727 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:41 am

Usually I develop an unofficial opinion of where something will go, and ballpark how strong it'll get, from looking at models positions and figuring known biases, heights/steering, SHIPs and GFDL, and seasoned with a little input from Bastardi or a Storm2K pro-met whose thinking is closest to mine for fine tuning.


I am clueless. Not sure if it will even develop, and while I'm still pretty confident that Texas is safe, not even that is etched on tablets, and anyway from Eastern half Louisiana all the way to Newfoundland, plus the Greater Antilles and nearby islands, are all potentially in the path. Heck, it could develop South of Cuba and hit Belize for all I know.

This is a tricky one, alright.
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Re: Re:

#3728 Postby Comanche » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:42 am

vbhoutex wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:through the next 36 hours, the chances of development are fairly small (If I were writing the NHC outlook, I'd drop it from red to yellow for the time being). Will not get development over Hispaniola.

However, I fully expect development to begin on Sunday afternoon, IF THIS DOES NOT HIT CUBA. I am also not convinced that this misses Cuba any longer

This may increase the threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however


This is what I am thinking as well. Give it a couple of days...but the longer it takes...the more the GoM threat.

Also...I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the low levels try to get going on the south side of the DR.


You are the second pro -met that has suggested this possibility that I have seen today. I don't like the increase in the threat to the GOM if this happens.


Make it 3, Jeff Lindner is also leaning more towards GOM, per his morning e-mail.
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#3729 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:43 am

While I agreed earlier that I saw a more west motion, I have got to say that after looking at this loop a little longer, it now appears that there is more of a WNW motion to the "center" of 92L...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Am I just seeing things?
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3730 Postby Comanche » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:43 am

Ed,

What is JB's cuurent thinking, he still married to the east coast, or is he talking of GOM possibilities?
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3731 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:43 am

vacanechaser wrote:
fox13weather wrote:92L is going to travel right over the spine of Hispinola. Despite most models showing a significant hurricane somewhere east of Florida next week, it is certainly a questionable scenario. The models are assuming the wave will be intact and that it will rapidly intensify if and when it moves away from land. Sure, it could happen, but there is also a chance that the wave will be too disorganized.


not to sure about that... looking at the radar loop, it appears that a center maybe developing off the northwest coast of puerto rico and looks to be moving northwest, or west northwest...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team


Yeah but 92L is moving W rate into the heart of the DR.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3732 Postby robbielyn » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:44 am

If it gets into the gulf would it head west from fl panhandle on westward? It's too early for a west fl coast hit right?
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Re:

#3733 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:46 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:While I agreed earlier that I saw a more west motion, I have got to say that after looking at this loop a little longer, it now appears that there is more of a WNW motion to the "center" of 92L...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Am I just seeing things?


yeah I mentioned this possibility --- since the western periphery of the ridge is near to the NW....wouldn't be surprised to see a WNW movement resume.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3734 Postby george_r_1961 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:46 am

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This has both unfavorable conditions to the west of it and interaction with land to contend with over the next 36-48 hours.

It MAY become a TD in this time frame but its gotta get away from land and shear for significant development to occur. And that may be another 48 hours.

I know im going out on a limb here but if it does develop, and by early next week it may very well do so, the landfall question will be when not if. I dont think any of us are seeing this becoming a fish.
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Re: Re:

#3735 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:47 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:through the next 36 hours, the chances of development are fairly small (If I were writing the NHC outlook, I'd drop it from red to yellow for the time being). Will not get development over Hispaniola.

However, I fully expect development to begin on Sunday afternoon, IF THIS DOES NOT HIT CUBA. I am also not convinced that this misses Cuba any longer

This may increase the threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however


This is what I am thinking as well. Give it a couple of days...but the longer it takes...the more the GoM threat.

Also...I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the low levels try to get going on the south side of the DR.


although possible.. im not buying it.. the dynamics ( lateral forces) will be more pronuced on the north side of the island ( assuming there is anything with the frictional theory) .. as the winds run into the mountains of hispanola you will have and up slope as well as a lateral wind components. the lateral wind winds will likely casue the center to become more defined ( in the scenario that it just scurts the northern coast) breifly before the center moves farther west and the southerly inflow is cut off. it is quite likely that as the "center" approaches the the northern coast or the coast in general we may see a more wnw motion as it interacts and moves around the high peaks.
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#3736 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:48 am

Without a center we are all making guesses I suppose, trciky at that!

Simply put the more time it spends over land the further west it should get as it will remain weak, the models that send it north has this getting offland sooner rather then later therefore getting deeper and tapping into a higher steering current, the longer it stays weak the long it'll get steered by the upper high to the west, this flow extends out to about 82-85W so after that no matter what it'll turn.

No defined center is making it hard to tell on radar about the track, if I had to guess I'd say about 275 but thats only a total guess.
Last edited by KWT on Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3737 Postby jeff » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:48 am

GOM threat appears to be increasing slightly. Carolinas threat is not that great. I actually like the CMC track into the E or SE Gulf...as the big islands are going to have some fun with 92L and its development will be greatly contained and held in check...if it survives. I agree with AFM that a center may attempt to form S of the DR at some point which tosses all the track guidance out except maybe the current W outliers.
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#3738 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:48 am

there is no shear over the system
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3739 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:50 am

Without sounding like I'm -removed-, I'd go to statistical odds and say that since so many storms on this track have failed to get strong in the last few years that the possibility of this one having a blow-up post Hispaniola are better. Especially since it showed a blow-up tendency this morning while still weak. The humidity here has been thick lately. - Or it could struggle as it is doing.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3740 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:50 am

george_r_1961 wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


This has both unfavorable conditions to the west of it and interaction with land to contend with over the next 36-48 hours.

It MAY become a TD in this time frame but its gotta get away from land and shear for significant development to occur. And that may be another 48 hours.

I know im going out on a limb here but if it does develop, and by early next week it may very well do so, the landfall question will be when not if. I dont think any of us are seeing this becoming a fish.

Yeah man...shear is an extremely hostile 1kt! :lol:
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