ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[txag2005]

I sure hope this thing doesn't head over to Texas. I really think the next big storm that hits the Houston area will be bad. There are still many people who claim they will never evacuate again after Rita (10-20+ hours in the car and the storm ended up going east).

I'm sure that's common, but I just have to think tropical weather isn't taken as serious here as it is in other locations such as Florida.

[gatorcane]

it sounds like the consensus is...if the center forms north of Hispaniola, current model guidance is good...but if the center forms south of Hispaniola maybe a more western track into the GOM (or Eastern GOM)???

[cpdaman]

Check the SJU radar loop. If you utilize your mouse cursor and plot the movement of the LLC (evident off NW Puerto Rico per QuikSCAT) on the radar, you can clearly detect the fact that the movement is north of due west. If you extrapolate the movement from the LLC's current position in the Mona Passage, it would imply a brief landfall on the extreme eastern edge of Hispaniola, but it would mostly scrape the eastern coastline.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA...11&loop=yes

Does anyone concur? I'm sticking with my original "scrape" call.

Regardless, this will be a significant heavy precip event for Hispaniola, unfortunately.

I will go with Aric Dunn's "tether ball theory" i.e when a storm get's close enough to one of these islands, it gets sucked in toward the land mass...as opposed to continuing on it's current motion (where the continuation of such motion would otherwise have brought this back over water after a brief "scrape") i.e like ernesto over eastern cuba than bending back toward the spine for 18 hours

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is where the general area of the center appears to be based on radar (IMO): http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3166/276 ... d8.jpg?v=0

I may be getting tricked by an illusion, but to my eyes that definitely appears to be where the greatest spin is at the moment.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

The Best Track position was 18.65N/67.5W a few hours ago, so 92l has to be near the E DR coast.

[vacanechaser]

through the next 36 hours, the chances of development are fairly small (If I were writing the NHC outlook, I'd drop it from red to yellow for the time being). Will not get development over Hispaniola.

However, I fully expect development to begin on Sunday afternoon, IF THIS DOES NOT HIT CUBA. I am also not convinced that this misses Cuba any longer

This may increase the threat to the Gulf of Mexico, however

This is what I am thinking as well. Give it a couple of days...but the longer it takes...the more the GoM threat.

Also...I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the low levels try to get going on the south side of the DR.

although possible.. im not buying it.. the dynamics ( lateral forces) will be more pronuced on the north side of the island ( assuming there is anything with the frictional theory) .. as the winds run into the mountains of hispanola you will have and up slope as well as a lateral wind components. the lateral wind winds will likely casue the center to become more defined ( in the scenario that it just scurts the northern coast) breifly before the center moves farther west and the southerly inflow is cut off. it is quite likely that as the "center" approaches the the northern coast or the coast in general we may see a more wnw motion as it interacts and moves around the high peaks.

thanx there aric bastardi!!!

nice explantion...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

This is where the general area of the center appears to be based on radar (IMO): http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3166/276 ... d8.jpg?v=0

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

very likely..

[Stormcenter]

Honestly every scenario is possible including the GOM with this tropical mess.
The good thing is the longer it takes 92L to finally organize if it ever does the
less likely this is to become a powerful system. IMO Another good thing is it may keep on moving over those nice mountainous islands. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

[txwatcher91]

This is where the general area of the center appears to be based on radar (IMO): http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3166/276 ... d8.jpg?v=0

That is what I was thinking, that area appears to be moving WNW right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

This is where the general area of the center appears to be based on radar (IMO): http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3166/276 ... d8.jpg?v=0

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

thats where I see it too. That area appears to have the strongest rotation and is moving wnw. This could mean that it could spend less time over land, but i wont predict anything since I expected this to be clearer of land by now.

[KWT]

Yeah shear won't be an issue with this system, the only issue is going to be the one of land interaction..

To put it very simply IMO:

A: reforms further north, tracks like the globals
B: tracks over DR, then over E. Cuba but eventually lifts and hits Florida probably as a fairly weak system I'd guess.
C: Stays weak and hits Cuba as well, eventually emerges into the gulf, maybe as only an area of Voricity...

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is where the general area of the center appears to be based on radar (IMO): http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3166/276 ... d8.jpg?v=0

That is what I was thinking, that area appears to be moving WNW right now.

I said this earlier..and it origionated from MiamiWX..LOL

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed,

What is JB's cuurent thinking, he still married to the east coast, or is he talking of GOM possibilities?

As of early AM, still a near miss on Florida and very possibly a major, hitting the Carolinas.

[x-y-no]

From the HPC Preliminary discussion:

THE EARLY AND UPDATED MORNING PRELIM FCSTS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY
WITH YDAYS 16Z TPC/HPC COORDINATION REGARDING A TROPICAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK...HAVE
ADJUSTED/FCST DAY 7 ON A MORE NWD TRACK AS PER TRENDS OF ECMWF/06Z
GFS/GHM/HWRF AND MOST OTHER HURCN MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE EAST
AND NORTH TRACK. DIFFICULTIES OCCUR IN INITIALIZATION DUE TO THE
SYSTEMS CURRENT PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER ANTILLES AND DAYS 6 AND 7
COULD EASILY BE WELL WEST IN THE GLFMEX ALTHO TRENDS AND MODEL
CLUSTERING SEEMS TO BE ON THE RIGHT HALF OF THE ENVELOPE SO DAY 7
IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM YTDAS CONTINUITY OF THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS.
SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS/OUTLOOKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLN... ALONG WITH OVERALL
PREFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TROFS AFFECTING THE WEST AND
NORTHEAST... LED TO STARTING THE DAYS FOR EASRLY PRELIMS 3-7 FCST
WITH A 70/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 12Z/14 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN RESPECTIVELY. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL TROPICAL FEATURE NEAR THE SERN COAST AND TO IMPROVE
DEFINITION OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CANADA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.

HPC day 3-7 forecast:

[rockyman]

Just throwing this out there...the track of Frederic 1979:

[Sanibel]

I expect 92L to do another warm-up d-min as it passes Hispaniola and gets its clouds cooled by the high mountains. Then it should blow-up again past Hispaniola. The center axis is probably tilted towards the islands and the convection that seems to be organized south of the weak semi-surface center.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

~~~~~~~~~~
I think that suppossed center NW of PR is nothing but an eddy as you can see it spinning around the circulation which I think is centered below PR and moving west. 92L may very well go below the DR or maybe up the bottom edge. That would definitely change the models and maybe increase the threat to the GOM or Florida if the turn to the north is only delayed.

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

So very close to a depression now looking at the latest SAT pics, despite its close proximity to land, I think this is the best it has looked.

[rockyman]

And David 1979 (notice how both David and Frederic did weird things over Hispaniola):