ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

I see a "center" just NW of the western PR and just NE of the coast of DR. Moving generally WNW. Thats the ONLY possible center out there that I see. The spin south of the islands, as of now, totally looks to be the MLC.

Please give us some kind of graphic showing that location.

[deltadog03]

That right there should put to rest the possible LLC stuff south of the islands. Sure, its possible that "could" happen, but this system has done this EVERY day. To be honest I am VERY suprised this little LLC has stuck around for so long. Thats the reason why this is not a TS by now. With all that said, it does appear that the blow up is right over or just south of the "center".

[Chacor]

"TD Developing" in the thread title is VERY misleading. It says "THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION", not "IS DEVELOPING".

[gatorcane]

Right Deltadog but I expect a blowup over or just north of the center over the next couple of hours...lets see if that happens.

[Trader Ron]

FWIW,

CNBC just mentioned, 25% chance 92L goes into the GOM.

[KWT]

Yep interesting to see the NHC state WNW, thats a big clue. Also yeah of course the one thats just to the east of DR is the main vortex without a shadow of a doubt.

IF it is heading WNW then will only clip land, also the other thing to note is they are saying its gotten better organised, if recon can find a closed circulation then we will get an upgrade.

[BigA]

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

I guess that sort of resolves the debate over the llc/llcc. Interesting that they say WNW, which implies somewhat less land interaction. I eagerly await recon.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: That right there should put to rest the possible LLC stuff south of the islands. Sure, its possible that "could" happen, but this system has done this EVERY day. To be honest I am VERY suprised this little LLC has stuck around for so long. Thats the reason why this is not a TS by now. With all that said, it does appear that the blow up is right over or just south of the "center".

looks to be just to the south ..

[dixiebreeze]

"TD Developing" in the thread title is VERY misleading. It says "THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION", not "IS DEVELOPING".

Freudian slip? NHC -removed-? No, actually they probably think development is close.

[Pearl River]

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

DR Radar

[wxman57]

I'll post a few more GFS model projections on the Models thread, but here's one valid 12Z Monday. I plotted the 12Z 700mb-400mb (10,000-20,000ft) steering level winds (mid levels). Pink barbs are predicted wind speeds and directions, yellow lines are the streamlines. I identified surface and upper-level highs/lows and the position of 92L.

Note the strong ridge over the western Gulf with W-NW flow all across the NW Gulf. That would make it difficult for the system to track in that direction. Look across the southeast U.S. at that trough axis extending down to Florida. That's why the models are fixated on a northward turn on Sunday.



Ok, I'm a bit lazy, I'll just post the Tuesday forecast here rather than writing 2 posts. I'll just post the link to the map, though. Note that the disturbance/Fay is disrupting the mean circulation by being over Florida. But generally, the steering currents weaken considerably by Tuesday across the Gulf. Not so strong a westerly wind flow, but not a flow that would take a system into the NW Gulf, either.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gfs12ztueaug19.gif

[gatorcane]

Well folks I see a whole bunch of convection that is about ready to "wrap" or develop around the E then NE then north side of the LLC.....look for it

[cpdaman]

Yep interesting to see the NHC state WNW, thats a big clue. Also yeah of course the one thats just to the east of DR is the main vortex without a shadow of a doubt.

IF it is heading WNW then will only clip land, also the other thing to note is they are saying its gotten better organised, if recon can find a closed circulation then we will get an upgrade.

just because it is heading WNW does not mean it will just clip land KWT, these things are notorious for having their heading deflected in some direction (when approaching the big islands) , i would be surprised to see this only skirt, the island, i think it will be "sucked in" but who knows

[KWT]

Whatever happens that southerly eddy will get snuffed out by DR anyway very shortly.

Still needs to pick up more latitude and without an exact center any talk about exact directions can clearly only be guesses, though at least ther eis lots of obs to choose from.

[txwatcher91]

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

DR Radar

I see where the NHC may see, an area about 50miles NE of the radar there is some banding of some sort developing.

[gatorcane]

I'll post a few more GFS model projections on the Models thread, but here's one valid 12Z Monday. I plotted the 12Z 700mb-400mb (10,000-20,000ft) steering level winds (mid levels). Pink barbs are predicted wind speeds and directions, yellow lines are the streamlines. I identified surface and upper-level highs/lows and the position of 92L.

Note the strong ridge over the western Gulf with W-NW flow all across the NW Gulf. That would make it difficult for the system to track in that direction. Look across the southeast U.S. at that trough axis extending down to Florida. That's why the models are fixated on a northward turn on Sunday.



Ok, I'm a bit lazy, I'll just post the Tuesday forecast here rather than writing 2 posts. I'll just post the link to the map, though. Note that the disturbance/Fay is disrupting the mean circulation by being over Florida. But generally, the steering currents weaken considerably by Tuesday across the Gulf. Not so strong a westerly wind flow, but not a flow that would take a system into the NW Gulf, either.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gfs12ztueaug19.gif

So the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS looks to be where we should put our money on at the moment. Rightfully so they are the better of the tropical model guidance suite. I personally am going with those models which bring it very close or through Southern FL. I see no reason either to go with the BAMMs, CMC, or UKMET at the moment.

[Brent]

000
WONT41 KNHC 151500
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER
OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

It's about time.

[cycloneye]

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

DR Radar

A great radar shot of the low.

[Blown Away]

What is the Lat/Long of this position?

[haml8]

If the system was to track near Cuba, what effect would that have on airspace for the Hurrican Hunters? I would assume it would have some effect as airspace is restricted.