ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[NEXRAD]

From San Juan long range, I'd place the "center" of the apparent circulation near 18.2N, 67.8W. This is a bit southeast of where it'd be suggested on the Dominican Republic radar still-shot, but on San Juna 88D the deep convection near the Dominican Republic eastern tip is moving south.

- Jay

[JPmia]

"THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM."

That is the first time they mention southern florida

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

appears 19N 67.6 or so

my guess is that it moves into NE dR then gets sucked into the center of the island, but again i really don't know anything, and am basing this off of one or two situation's with storm's of different stregnth on different islands

[Pearl River]

Punta Cana Airport

Latitude: 18.56666666
18° 34' 0" N
18 degrees, 34 minutes, 0 seconds North


Longitude: -68.38333333
68° 23' 0" W
68 degrees, 23 minutes, 0 seconds West

[Frank2]

Thanks for that loop - though the NHC term "better organized" has to be taken with a grain of salt in this case, since the system is still more of a mess than anything...

[gatorcane]

Well I have been calling this to impact Southern Florida in some way for days now and see no reason to change my forecast reasoning at this time. NHC now mentions southern Florida --- the big million dollar question is just how strong will it be?

[haml8]

Recon airborn...

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

DR Radar

you know how long i have been looking for that.. years.. i have literally 30 radar sites and for some reason could never find that..lol

[Blown Away]

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

DR Radar

A great radar shot of the low.

Looking at that view, I don't see how the low skirts the coast, looks almost down the middle

[HURAKAN]

If the system was to track near Cuba, what effect would that have on airspace for the Hurrican Hunters? I would assume it would have some effect as airspace is restricted.

They cannot fly in Cuban airspace except the Cuban government allows.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

DR Radar

you know how long i have been looking for that.. years.. i have literally 30 radar sites and for some reason could never find that..lol

also the center is much more visible out of that radar site and is going to be north of DR

[cpdaman]

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

DR Radar

A great radar shot of the low.

Looking at that view, I don't see how the low skirts the coast, looks almost down the middle

seems a true WNW would have it just skirting the coast, i would be surpised if it doesn't bend back in

[KWT]

DR radar does suggest this is probably scrape along the NE side of DR at least, probably very close to land now, I'd guess only a little while till it reaches DR.

[cpdaman]

also over dominican republic 70W appears to be the dividing line between low lands and mountains.

[Aric Dunn]

high confidence .. in the location of the center

[Chacor]

If the system was to track near Cuba, what effect would that have on airspace for the Hurrican Hunters? I would assume it would have some effect as airspace is restricted.

They cannot fly in Cuban airspace except the Cuban government allows.

The Cuban government has generally been co-operative regarding weather flights though, as they themselves are going to be affected by any system in their airspace.

[Sanibel]

I think this is going right across the back of Hispaniola. The north quadrant is dry and suffering because of this.

Amazingly the upper is still well-formed with a symmetrical and expanding outflow.

[KWT]

I don't think its going to the north, I'd place the center only a little east of the coast now, center looks like its going to clip the northerly part of DR that sticks out and carry along fairly close to the coast.

Aric, I'd place it further SW then that but not too different.

[NEXRAD]

Aric, the "center" is farther south and east from where you've indicated, as the deepest convection near your circle is moving south.

- Jay