ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, the "center" is farther south and east from where you've indicated, as the deepest convection near your circle is moving south.

- Jay

nope

[NEXRAD]

Aric, the "center" is farther south and east from where you've indicated, as the deepest convection near your circle is moving south.

- Jay

nope

Have you checked the San Juan 88D long range loop?

- Jay

[Sanibel]

Close Aric. Just a touch south and smaller.

[gatorcane]

Good image showing proximity to the SE Conus. Still looks very menacing to me. As the NHC indicates Southern florida needs to closely monitor this things progress

[txwatcher91]

Aric, the "center" is farther south and east from where you've indicated, as the deepest convection near your circle is moving south.

- Jay

Did you even look at the DR radar loop? I did and the center Aric circled appears to be correct as you can see it beginning to wrap bands on the east side of it. Don't look at the San Juan loop as it is 120 miles from the "circulation" while the DR radar is maybe 40-50 miles at best.

[cpdaman]

jay perhaps you are watching something at the mid levels?

[Pearl River]

Aric wrote:

Pearl River wrote:
http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

DR Radar


you know how long i have been looking for that.. years.. i have literally 30 radar sites and for some reason could never find that..lol

I'm persistent when I google.

[cheezyWXguy]

Close Aric. Just a touch south and smaller.

No im pretty sure aric's right. I just looked at the radar loop myself. Becoming more defined with each new frame

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, the "center" is farther south and east from where you've indicated, as the deepest convection near your circle is moving south.

- Jay

nope

Have you checked the San Juan 88D long range loop?

- Jay

san jaun to far away now..

and yes.. i have a wonderful radal loop always running

[KWT]

I think Aric's center is pretty close, I'd have personally placed it about 15 miles further SW but its not a big deal with a ill defined LLC I suppose.

Gatorcane, yep still looks good, really impresive outflow as well, think if it can avoid land for any amount of time then surely its going to develop down the road at some point.

[gatorcane]

Here is a nice loop showing a WNW movement:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

the only thing hindering it now is land interaction (thankfully)

[Air Force Met]

high confidence .. in the location of the center

How is that the center according to radar? The echoes south of that location are moving west...as are the echoes north of it. If it is anywhere...it is in the Mona Passage where the NHC says it is.

If by some chance there is a LLC there...it is doomed. Skirting the northern coast of Hispaniola with no convection is a death sentence. It would be a dead man walking...a naked swirl that would dissipate.

[perk]

Question for AFM, there's been alot of debate back & forth about how 92L will be affected by the ridge. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

[Sanibel]

Makes no difference. We'll watch for center quirks due to island shadow and possible attempts of the center to stay just offshore. The synoptic is pushing the high tops south of the island that should provide for heavy rain from mountain uplift.

No need to spend all day on this. Should be interesting tonight.

[cpdaman]

Here is a nice loop showing a WNW movement:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

the only thing hindering it now is land interaction (thankfully)

well done...nice loop........ let's really hope this gets further disrupted by land (while weak) instead of staying off the N coast of the dR and cuba

also ARic it appears clear to me that is the center and that the convection developing to the south of the center (while the center is still developing and getting better organized) creates the impression of westward moving convection to the south ( i think that convection is building west) and will soon be part of a souther inflow to the LLC

[NEXRAD]

Mia culpa - I didn't realize the DR radar "buttons" actually gave the animation. The page initially loaded as image only for me.

Yes, Aric's center is very close, though judging from the larger band forming to the west and the recent movement of the deepest convection, I'd still say it's more south. I realize, too, that the San Juan 88D shows mid-levels at this range. For three years I conducted tornado research using radar data for over 16,000 different storm cell data points.

- Jay

[Sanibel]

It would be a dead man walking...a naked swirl that would dissipate

Not sure. The perfect upper could carry it.

[BatzVI]

Don't know if it means anything, and a little off-topic, but the clouds here are racing and got to see a "sundog"....way cool!

[Air Force Met]

Question for AFM, there's been alot of debate back & forth about how 92L will be affected by the ridge. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

Nobody can answer that question yet...because 92L hasn't decided what it wants to be. I think its going right over the back of Hispaniola. It will remain an open wave (although it may be closed for sometime today until that interaction)...until it clears Cuba. It is way too early to say. One thing I do think...I don't think it will get caught by the shortwave.

[Aric Dunn]

high confidence .. in the location of the center

How is that the center according to radar? The echoes south of that location are moving west...as are the echoes north of it. If it is anywhere...it is in the Mona Passage where the NHC says it is.

If by some chance there is a LLC there...it is doomed. Skirting the northern coast of Hispaniola with no convection is a death sentence. It would be a dead man walking...a naked swirl that would dissipate.

wow are you seriously looking and the deep convection ... you need to look and the shallowest areas of rain as those are the closest to the surface..
also ... the rain north of it is much shallower that the stonger echos south but if you look at it correctly you will see the shallow echoes moving east on the south side//


right north coast is not good for it..