ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Based on my latest analysis, it is difficult to believe the center will only cross the extreme northern portion of Hispaniola. Trends are critical. Currently, radar indicates the LLC is centered directly west of NW Puerto Rico over the Mona Passage, and it is moving north of due west. However, look at the mid level circulation to the southwest near Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. Overland friction appears to be affecting the pressure gradient, resulting in a broader low level rotation. This may prevent the system from organizing more significantly over the "main" LLC. In addition, satellite imagery indicates convection is minimal on the northern side of 92L (just N of the LLC), possibly because of inflow disruption (due to Puerto Rico on the east side). In other words, without significant convection on the north side, we won't observe substantive organization and deepening beyond a TD prior to landfall on the Dominican Republic. As a result, the system is also following the east to west steering within the lower levels via the low level trade winds.

The GFS is latching on to trends and a track over the heart of Hispaniola is reasonable.

In the long term, I'm continuing to stick to my original skepticism in regards to a major hurricane; I didn't believe it was plausible, and I'll stick to it.

[cpdaman]

Does appear that a LLC is near 18.2N 68.2W moving West

than perhaps we would have to watch for this thing to go just south of DR and then shoot the gap between Cuba and W. haiti

[MiamiensisWx]

We're going to potentially witness many reports of flooding deaths emanating from Hispaniola in some locations, sadly...

[poof121]

Looking at the vorticity map, you would think any center would be north of puerto rico. I am just wondering why that is not the case.

[HURAKAN]

We're going to potentially witness many reports of flooding deaths emanating from Hispaniola in some locations, sadly...

Absolutely. Not everything is good news.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

We don't really know if or where a center is but the overall system is moving rapidly west, maybe south of west, along the SOUTH coats of the DR.

[fci]

So was I right yesterday? Is 92L now just another "next"?

I would not quite go to the extreme of saying "next"; however 92L's excursion over Hispanola would certainly lessen the threat and doom and gloom that has been reflected for us in South Florida over the past 100 or so pages of the thread.

Another of the long list of systems that does not do what it is supposed to.
A reminder that no one tells these things what to do besides Mother Nature and she does not have a blog to tell us what she is planning!

[cpdaman]

anyone notice some turning S of central puerto rican coast LOL.....but seriously

[MiamiensisWx]

This is a reminder to all that one should NEVER forecast a major hurricane without VERY STRONG SIGNALS for it (ala Andrew, Katrina, etc.).

NEVER forecast one without OVERWHELMING evidence... never!!!

Don't panic because of the (very inaccurate) GFDL/HWRF intensity forecasts in the medium to long ranges!

[Blown Away]

The 24 hour TAFB surface low prediction:
[img][/img]

TAFB link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[MiamiensisWx]

This is a reminder to all that one should NEVER forecast a major hurricane without VERY STRONG SIGNALS for it (ala Andrew, Katrina, etc.).

NEVER forecast one without OVERWHELMING evidence... never!!!

Don't panic because of the (very inaccurate) GFDL/HWRF intensity forecasts in the medium to long ranges!

A weak system tracking over Hispaniola with marginal support (if you rightfully discard GFDL/HWRF) for major hurricane status in the medium/long range (unlike Andrew/Katrina) is NOT overwhelming evidence...

[HURAKAN]

This is a reminder to all that one should NEVER forecast a major hurricane without VERY STRONG SIGNALS for it (ala Andrew, Katrina, etc.).

NEVER forecast one without OVERWHELMING evidence... never!!!

Don't panic because of the (very inaccurate) GFDL/HWRF intensity forecasts in the medium to long ranges!

In this case, then the same also applies for everyone predicting a depression. Better, a LLC!!! Everyone has been wrong in one point or the other with 92L. A major hurricane was possible if it had develop yesterday and had remained in a more northern track.

[Bocadude85]

The 24 hour TAFB surface low prediction:
[img][/img]

TAFB link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

That would be skimming the north coast then...

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't know... Gonna have to wait till it exits DR/Haiti. Throw out all the models till then.

[CourierPR]

We don't really know if or where a center is but the overall system is moving rapidly west, maybe south of west, along the SOUTH coats of the DR.

The NHC says otherwise.

[HURAKAN]

[Sal Collaziano]

No thoughts on this Vorticity map?

Looking at the vorticity map, you would think any center would be north of puerto rico. I am just wondering why that is not the case.

[AtlanticWind]

Center looks to be on the ne coast of DR moving slightly north of west , Interaction with the big island is going to be key to how strong this can get.

[Hyperstorm]

I do see the low level circulation fairly clearly to the NE of the tip of the Domincan Republic. It is moving westward. It looks like it is skirting the north coast over the next few hours. If it doesn't move WNW, it will eventually move inland late this afternoon in central Hispaniola. The system MAY just survive if the main area of circulation stays offshore. That will only happen if it starts moving WNW NOW. Only then, will I see the GFDL/HWRF forecast come to fruition.

[Chacor]

Dominican Republic Met Service:

INSTITUTO DOMINICANO DE AVIACION CIVIL

OFICINA NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA

DEPARTAMENTO DE METEOROLOGIA GENERAL

DIVISION DE METEOROLOGIA SINOPTICA Y PRONOSTICOS

BOLETÍN DE DIFUSION INMEDIATA



AVISO Y ALERTA DE INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS



VIERNES 15 DE AGOSTO 2008…….……………………………………12:00 MERIDIANO



LA OFICINA NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA, A PARTIR DE ESTE MOMENTO MANTIENE UNA ALERTA CONTRA CRECIDAS E INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS DE RIOS, ARROYOS Y CAÑADAS EN LAS ZONAS DE ALTO RIESGO DE LA REGION NORTE, MIENTRAS SE EMITE UN AVISO PARA LAS REGIONES ESTE, NORESTE Y SURESTE ESPERANDOSE VALORES DE LLUVIAS ENTRE 40 Y 125 MILIMETROS, SIENDO SUPERIORES EN ZONAS DE MONTAÑAS, PRODUCTO DE LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS CON TORMENTAS ELECTRICAS Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS OCASIONALES, QUE HAN COMENZADO A REGISTRARSE DESDE PRIMERAS HORAS DE LA MAÑANA Y QUE CONTINUARAN DURANTE EL RESTO DEL DIA DE HOY, COMO CONSECUENCIA DE UNA ZONA DE DISTURBIO TROPICAL, LA CUAL PRESENTA CONDICIONES FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLARSE EN UN CICLON TROPICAL .



EN ESTE SENTIDO, SE RECOMIENDA A LA POBLACION EN LAS ZONAS ANTES MENCIONADAS DARLE UN SEGUIMIENTO CONSTANTE A LOS BOLETINES DE ESTA ONAMET Y A LAS RECOMENDACIONES DEL CENTRO DE OPERACIONES DE EMERGENCIAS.



POR OTRO LADO SE RECOMIENDA A LOS CONDUCTORES DE VEHÍCULOS DE MOTOR TOMAR LAS MEDIDAS DE PRECAUCIÓN POR LA REDUCCIÓN DE VISIBILIDAD Y POSIBLES DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LAS ARENAS DEJADAS POR LAS LLUVIAS.



METEOROLOGO: BOLIVAR LEDESMA