ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[artist]

thanks senor! I have really enjoyed these.

[Brent]

Hispaniola seems to be having no effect yet. Looks pretty good still:

It's got one thing going for it, great structure.

[jlauderdal]

Hispaniola seems to be having no effect yet. Looks pretty good still:

it just started interacting with hispanola so that would be expected

[Steve Cosby]

Hispaniola seems to be having no effect yet. Looks pretty good still:

Bastardi says, and I believe this has been borne out before, that Hispaniola does not do to weak TC's what it does to strong TC's because they are "already weak".

My own warped mind suggests this is because a weak TC is not stacked up well yet and is still bouncing around trying to form itself anyway.

[HURAKAN]

AF RECON getting there.

For more information, visit the RECON thread. viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102461&p=1770710#p1770710

[AtlanticWind]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Pretty sure we have a tropical storm near the tip of the DR.

[hurricanefloyd5]

So where is the llcc??????? I am having a hard time picking out the LLCC now?????

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hispaniola seems to be having no effect yet. Looks pretty good still:

Bastardi says, and I believe this has been borne out before, that Hispaniola does not do to weak TC's what it does to strong TC's because they are "already weak".

My own warped mind suggests this is because a weak TC is not stacked up well yet and is still bouncing around trying to form itself anyway.

Yeah, weaker systems can survive land much, much better. Elena from 1985 proves that...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Elena_1985_track.png

[txwatcher91]

So where is the llcc??????? I am having a hard time picking out the LLCC now?????

Possibly NNW of the DR radar.

[Weatherboy1]

Not to be a "Debby Downer," but doesn't this situation look a lot like what happened in 2000 with that storm? It sure does to me. I don't see how this thing survives a tussle with the DR, which is what it looks like we're going to see here.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2000atl.gif

I'm not going to worry too much here in South FL unless it A) starts clearing away from the DR pretty quickly, either to the south or north and B) reorganizes rapidly after emerging from land.

[weatherguru18]

It appears the MLC is going to cross the entire island of Hispaniola...that could spell the death of this system.

I second what was just said about Fox. I just heard them call it a depression and that "Fay" could impact the U.S. Then he went on to say..."and right on Fay's heels is another developing storm."

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Pretty sure we have a tropical storm near the tip of the DR.

Hey Bob. I think your right. It's just NE of that little Island. I think it's moving west and could very well travel down the south side of the DR.

[GreenSky]

Can someone update me on 92L's current location and possible changes in long term model guidance?

To me, it looks like 92L moved West Southwest and is heading into the Caribbean.

[AtlanticWind]

It appears the MLC is going to cross the entire island of Hispaniola...that could spell the death of this system.

I second what was just said about Fox. I just heard them call it a depression and that "Fay" could impact the U.S. Then he went on to say..."and right on Fay's heels is another developing storm."

Sounds like Fox news , all hype all the time.

[weatherguru18]

Don't look at the end of the track...I'm not saying it's coming to Houston, but look at the track. It treked right over the DR and all of Cuba and still hit Galveston as a "Cat. 4." Just goes to show you that 92L may still be a force wherever it goes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1900 ... _track.png

[vbhoutex]

On DR radar I see what is left(not much) of a llcc just to the N orf the coast less than 30 km NW of Punta Cana. The MLC is definitely almost on top of PC and unless my eyes are decieving me it is moving WSW or W.

[NEXRAD]

With the visible satellite imagery, I'm seeing the low level circulation being near 19.3N, 68.5W. You can tell by watching the lower level cloud bands in that region rather than the circulation associated with the larger mesoconvective cluster to the south.

- Jay

[Ed Mahmoud]

looks more and more likely this gets into the gulf either via a florida or cuba connection and from there need i say more in mid august...

I don't think so. I am pretty sure from staring at visible the LLC is on or North of the Northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic.


The exact path isn't certain yet, but I'm unofficially leaning the way JB has been, Bahamas, close to Florida but no landfall, and a Carolinas threat.

[vbhoutex]

It appears the MLC is going to cross the entire island of Hispaniola...that could spell the death of this system.

I second what was just said about Fox. I just heard them call it a depression and that "Fay" could impact the U.S. Then he went on to say..."and right on Fay's heels is another developing storm."

IMO, there should be FCC rules against that kind of hype!! But this is a thread about 92L, so back to that.

[tolakram]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Pretty sure we have a tropical storm near the tip of the DR.

You're looking at the mid levels so that's the MLC which has been vigorous for days now. The radar beam rises with distance.