ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

Two of the local channels here in Miami are already doing hourly updates on this system, and are calling for people to start preparing for a possible hurricane...

You have got to be kidding me.

It is over hype like this that kills the credibility of "real" threats.
This is not even a Tropical Storm or even a Tropical Depression and there are hourly updates.

Sheesh!!!!

Good point fci --- if this one doesn't happen, it may end up going down as another "bust" and credibility will be further lost.

[NEXRAD]

SSD dvorak:

15/1745 UTC 18.1N 68.6W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

Right about where I thought it was.

18Z surface observation from La Romana, just north of that position, has a light west wind, however.

- Jay

[storms in NC]

My best radar-estimated possible LLC is near 18.8N, 68.7W. On visible imagery, though, it seems like it might be a little north and west of this position, though.

- Jay

18.3 68.5

This is where I have been looking all for the past 3 hours. I asked about it and was cut down. But I do think that is the center. and it has been moving WNW most of the day.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

okay I give in --- this thing does look like it is trying hard to dance south around the big island and not go completely through it....if it manages to miss the bulk of Hispaniola it could crank up that is for usre...geez what an unpredictable system.

[fci]

This is likely TS Fay now per reconnaissance data. Data seems to confirm a center and TS winds at the surface. We merely need an upgrade.

If the NHC has not upgraded this system by now, do you really think they will as it is moving into Hispanola and could likely be gone after passing through? What lat/long is the LLC?

All I can say is that if 92L was in GOM, the NHC would have upgraded this thing like 2 days ago

I really can't see how you can justify a comment like that.

Why would there be a reason to use two different sets of measures for upgrading???

[senorpepr]

This is likely TS Fay now per reconnaissance data. Data seems to confirm a center and TS winds at the surface. We merely need an upgrade.

How is that? Maybe I'm missing something, but I've yet to see any sort of west wind.

I'm going to bring this up again since you haven't answered. There has been NO data to remotely confirm a center. NONE. Your statement is purely misinformational. To roughly quote something you said a few weeks ago, we have a responsibility NOT to spread incorrect information.

Now, where is this supposed data that confirms a center per recon data?

[Air Force Met]

One thing I am noticing from recon:

The extrap pressure from NOAA...which is up at 700MB is much lower (by 3-4 mb) than the low level invest from the AF. In other words...the upper level circulation is still awesome...and the lower level circulation is still garbage.

[artist]

as I stated in the 92l invest thread 2 of my dogs that always sense when a biggie is coming or is going to be near are already sensing this one. The last time this has happened was with Wilma. Has anyone else noticed their animals that do sense such acting pecular yet or an absense of birds, etc. yet? How ine are acting - not wanting to leave my side, hiding under things, hesitant to go outside and will only with me by their side. Sniffing the air immediately after going outside.

[gatorcane]

Well AFM that is one way of ensuring survival across the big mountains.....keep a strong MLC but junk LLC....the MLC will be much higher than the highest mountains Hispaniola has.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm going to bring this up again since you haven't answered. There has been NO data to remotely confirm a center. NONE. Your statement is purely misinformational. To roughly quote something you said a few weeks ago, we have a responsibility NOT to spread incorrect information.

Now, where is this supposed data that confirms a center per recon data?

Punta Cana data indicated a wind shift earlier. Additionally, radar from that site indicates a circulation inland and west of the station.

Unfortunately, I can't find the radar link... can anyone post it?

[dixiebreeze]

quote="MiamiensisWx"]

Everyone should keep in mind the unpredictability of tropical storms. There was no "good reason" to think Hurricane Charlie would suddenly take a hard right into Punta Gorda, Florida -- but it did.

Bolded statement is false. There was abundant evidence for the turn. Additionally, 1933 likely featured more than 21 NS, so I always believed (rare) seasons with more than 21 NS were possible.

I have yet to see any conclusive evidence supporting the possibility of a major hurricane from this one. I'm not condescending; I'm merely asking for proof or possible answers.[/quote][/quote]


Miami, I have no clue what your response means. My comment referred to track direction -- not intensity. I generally like your analysis, BTW.

[AtlanticWind]

One thing I am noticing from recon:

The extrap pressure from NOAA...which is up at 700MB is much lower (by 3-4 mb) than the low level invest from the AF. In other words...the upper level circulation is still awesome...and the lower level circulation is still garbage.

Which could lend this to rapidly intensify if gets away from land interaction .

[Brent]

okay I give in --- this thing does look like it is trying hard to dance south around the big island and not go completely through it....if it manages to miss the bulk of Hispaniola it could crank up that is for usre...geez what an unpredictable system.

I just noticed that, perhaps the GFS is onto something.

[JonathanBelles]

No changes here yet.

[fci]

Enough of this questioning the NHC and making assumptions you have no way of proving. This is the final warning to EVERYONE concerning this.

It is one thing to discuss how one thinks the NHC is incorrect and provide support. It is another to make statements that you have no way of proving. Let's stay with the first part of this paragraph please!!

I remember a discussion here on Storm2k about how systems in the GOM are usually handled more aggressively and upgraded sooner than Atlantic invests...this speculative view was shared by many credible posters on Storm2k. I tried looking for it but it is buried somewhere in the annals.
Other pro-mets have also chimed in their surprise, especially yesterday, about 92L not being upgraded. Not bashing the NHC, but just wondering what's on their minds. I think its fine to question as long as it is done respectfully.[/quote]


I have been wading these pages the last few days and do not remember any Pro Met questioning 92L not being upgraded. Most have been bullish on development and expecting it but I do not recall any saying they were surprised that it had not been upgraded.
Surprise that it had not risen to the level of being upgraded but not questioning the lack of an upgrade.
In fact, the Pros have been voices of reason defending the status of the system as an Invest and not a TD.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

[Blown Away]

SSD dvorak:

15/1745 UTC 18.1N 68.6W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

Only 30+ miles S of the previous position of 18.65N and you can't pinpoint a broad low. 18.1N or 18.6 N is about the same thing with a disorganized system.

[jasons2k]

Let's put the upgrading discussion to rest please and get back to 92L.

[MiamiensisWx]

I have been wading these pages the last few days and do not remember any Pro Met questioning 92L not being upgraded. Most have been bullish on development and expecting it but I do not recall any saying they were surprised that it had not been upgraded.
Surprise that it had not risen to the level of being upgraded but not questioning the lack of an upgrade.
In fact, the Pros have been voices of reason defending the status of the system as an Invest and not a TD.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

I think you're mostly correct; I also agreed that the system was not a TD/TS when it was over the Leewards at the time.

On topic: Can anyone post a link to Punta Cana radar? Thanks!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

My cat was staring at the wall... Of course that's pretty much normal, with an occasional running across the living room and swiping at mysterious invisible objects in the air. The trained attack cat is currently trying to attack anything and everything insight (including knocking down the dvd player and computer speakers grrr...) My sisters dog is chilling out, but I'll let you know if i see any changes in the birds/dog/cat.

[greels]

My pup is pretty much staying by my side......

HE does not like thunder & lightning, which I hope we do not get much of with this storm over Hispaniola.