Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
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Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
you know,..... every hurricane season the bahama's /Fl. strait water's can support a monster of a storm and one year everyone in SE. florida/keys (i live there as well) luck will run out in a almost unbelievable and catastrophic way i am afraid. Sorry to shock anyone with this random post...but it is the truth IMO, and i am constantly curious (not ashamed) by knowledge of this...because i am knowledgeable that should this happen i would face a great loss (of house/investment that i would incur) yet my excitment and awe when things have potential is always there.
Seems Wilma was the strongest storm to effect many in Broward county and Southern and central palm beach county's as well in over 40 years! And the whole region (minus a very unlucky section near homestead in miami dade) has luckily not seen a cat 4 or 5 in a very long time. people grow complacent with decades of relative safety. And i think begin to imagine that it really wont happen. The reality is that the waters to our SE are very fertile and could support a monster cat 5 that would shut down the area for a long time, and hopefully we don't see one for another 40 years!
Seems Wilma was the strongest storm to effect many in Broward county and Southern and central palm beach county's as well in over 40 years! And the whole region (minus a very unlucky section near homestead in miami dade) has luckily not seen a cat 4 or 5 in a very long time. people grow complacent with decades of relative safety. And i think begin to imagine that it really wont happen. The reality is that the waters to our SE are very fertile and could support a monster cat 5 that would shut down the area for a long time, and hopefully we don't see one for another 40 years!
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You'd think so, but, many in the public are more concerned with going to Chili's to drink than preparing for an emergency of any kind - unfortunately, that seems to be a part of our secular "party" society that is very short-sighted when it comes to any danger...
On the other hand, after 9/11, many (myself included) let fear rule the roost, which is not right, either, so, in the end it's a balance of being prepared but not letting the fear of what might happen ruin how we live from day to day...
As the scouts say, "Be prepared", since that's advice from the Bible...
Frank
On the other hand, after 9/11, many (myself included) let fear rule the roost, which is not right, either, so, in the end it's a balance of being prepared but not letting the fear of what might happen ruin how we live from day to day...
As the scouts say, "Be prepared", since that's advice from the Bible...
Frank
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
Frank your right, it is that delicate balance............and i think perhaps the idea that they would have a battle to stay out of the 'fear zone' should they contemplate the seriousness of the potential uncertain threat we face every year....but then again this threat is not one that will up and shock people w/o some sort of warning and lead in time.... they will either have enough time to find a safe place/shelter worst case...or in most circumstances drive north.....as you pointed out it may seem as human nature that people gravitate toward the extreme's as far as attitude's/ fear goes
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
I was prepared to start a "south florida watching possible Fay" thread but this looks like the place.
I'm calculating 1,034 miles to the upper keys, at 13 knots steady, that's 3 days, 8 hours away, or landfall early Monday morning.
[BTW, i got slammed once for extrapolating a landfall down to the minute. If you think it's ridiculous because we don't know where it's going, too bad. If a ballpark guess on arrival time helps someone prepare, that's all I care about]
Someone in another thread mentioned possible evac timing. It looks to me like if a threat is established the Keys EOC will want to get tourists out on Saturday early and locals out Sat night maybe. Prudence would require a day sooner, but that means starting evacs tomorrow. It would have to become a cane overnight and the models would have to show continued speed above 10k and a Cat 2 threat for Key West to Miami. They actually won't order an evacuation in my experience unless there's a hurricane warning, which may not come until Sunday morning. Then it'll be everyone for themselves.
There's plenty of time for the UK to clear, but could be a mess trying to get the Lower Keys cleared in a day.
I'm calculating 1,034 miles to the upper keys, at 13 knots steady, that's 3 days, 8 hours away, or landfall early Monday morning.
[BTW, i got slammed once for extrapolating a landfall down to the minute. If you think it's ridiculous because we don't know where it's going, too bad. If a ballpark guess on arrival time helps someone prepare, that's all I care about]
Someone in another thread mentioned possible evac timing. It looks to me like if a threat is established the Keys EOC will want to get tourists out on Saturday early and locals out Sat night maybe. Prudence would require a day sooner, but that means starting evacs tomorrow. It would have to become a cane overnight and the models would have to show continued speed above 10k and a Cat 2 threat for Key West to Miami. They actually won't order an evacuation in my experience unless there's a hurricane warning, which may not come until Sunday morning. Then it'll be everyone for themselves.
There's plenty of time for the UK to clear, but could be a mess trying to get the Lower Keys cleared in a day.
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
You all are absolutely right about the danger in S/E Florida. Maybe some people try not to think about it - avoiding the subject is more "comfortable" than confronting the truth of it. S/E Florida had an awful hit back in '92, but what if the storm had been larger, struck an even more populated area (or more of it)? Personally I think being a too afraid is better than being apathetic, if we had to choose either one - IF that fear was motivation to prepare.
I'm in St. Petersburg and if anything, the complacency is worse here! When I was shopping for hurricane shutters, I asked someone about them and they said, why not ask your neighbors what kind they use. My neighbors? Hah!! No one near us has any shutters at all!
I'm in St. Petersburg and if anything, the complacency is worse here! When I was shopping for hurricane shutters, I asked someone about them and they said, why not ask your neighbors what kind they use. My neighbors? Hah!! No one near us has any shutters at all!

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- LSU2001
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- Age: 57
- Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:01 pm
- Location: Cut Off, Louisiana
Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
I hope and pray that ya'll never have to read a NWS warning like this. It is very, very scary when you see official products sounding like TEOTWAWKI. Thank God it did not pan out quite like this but it was bad.
Tim
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!
Tim
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!
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- AdamFirst
- S2K Supporter
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Unfortunately many South Floridians use the philosophy of "if we don't see it, it ain't there"
Nobody cares about it until it's knocking on your door with a special delivery of death and destruction...why do you think so many people stay during hurricanes down here? Not to mention those that stay on the barrier islands defying police orders to evacuate...
For the so many close calls that we've gotten we certainly haven't learned our lesson yet.
Nobody cares about it until it's knocking on your door with a special delivery of death and destruction...why do you think so many people stay during hurricanes down here? Not to mention those that stay on the barrier islands defying police orders to evacuate...

For the so many close calls that we've gotten we certainly haven't learned our lesson yet.
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
Not just south Florida but the west coast as well as well as everyone in Hurricane alley. Point being be ready every year.
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-
- Tropical Wave
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
So I just sold a condo in Naples that went through Charlie and Wilma with no damage (owned it for nine years), but I am having a roof replaced on my Kansas City home from damage caused by a tornado that passed within 300 yards..then there are the earthquakes in California, blizzards in the Great Plains, etc. You folks in Florida live in paradise, and occasional bad weather is the price you pay. Buy some bottled water, make sure your flashlights and portable radios have fresh batteries, stock up on groceries, and watch the weather forecasts. Having done that, go on with your lives. Acts of nature can occur anywhere at anytime.
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
I am a member of CERT- Community Emergency Response Team. CERT teams throughout South Florida train and are ready to assist if and when a disaster like a tropical storm or hurricane strikes the local area. Right now CERT teams throughout South Florida are quietly getting ready for this latest threat. Here in Boca Raton, we have our first radio check already scheduled and we will be standing by until we are otherwise informed by the Fire Department.
Since Frances Jean and Wilma, I think most people have a much healthier respect towards storms. No more criss-cross taping of windows with masking tape and sitting idly by. Just about everyone I know has a hurricane supply kit at home and everyone is prepared to live without power for at least a few days. Ditto on evacuation and shelter plans.
No one wants this crazy storm here in South Florida. No one. But most people I've talked to have an idea what they'll do if it blows through and how they'll live afterwards.
Personally, I'm hoping South Florida is in the clear! That all the prep work is for nothing….
BocaGirl
Barbara
Since Frances Jean and Wilma, I think most people have a much healthier respect towards storms. No more criss-cross taping of windows with masking tape and sitting idly by. Just about everyone I know has a hurricane supply kit at home and everyone is prepared to live without power for at least a few days. Ditto on evacuation and shelter plans.
No one wants this crazy storm here in South Florida. No one. But most people I've talked to have an idea what they'll do if it blows through and how they'll live afterwards.
Personally, I'm hoping South Florida is in the clear! That all the prep work is for nothing….
BocaGirl
Barbara
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
In a nutshell:
Katrina was a T.V. show and Andrew was 16 years ago...160 years in human psyche. And the last 2 year's busted forecasts only serve to enhance the complacency among citizens..
I'm concerned about my family and friends in SFla.
Katrina was a T.V. show and Andrew was 16 years ago...160 years in human psyche. And the last 2 year's busted forecasts only serve to enhance the complacency among citizens..
I'm concerned about my family and friends in SFla.
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
I don't see how anyone in Florida can become complacent when, on average, 1 out of every two storms that hit the Conus hits Florida.
It boggles my mind when people on here jump on Floridians for being so paranoid. You're not. You've got a reason to be jumpy.
It boggles my mind when people on here jump on Floridians for being so paranoid. You're not. You've got a reason to be jumpy.
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-
- Tropical Wave
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I don't think anyone is being accused of being paranoid, just suggesting that situational awareness is necessary anywhere you may live. Each area has its local dangers and you should take all appropriate precautions. Once you do that, proceed to enjoy the fact you have chosen to live in paradise.
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-
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
From a preparedness standpoint the folks of the Fl. Keys seem to be some of the most prepared I've spoken with. The lines at the gas stations are starting and are very orderly. Local gorcery store is well stocked as are many homeowners. Haven't heard anything yet from the county gov. but I expect that tomorrow morning. Personally I'll be closing up a vacant home I have for sale first thing in the am. Next will be pulling out the boat at high tide and then putting away the few things around the house that need doing. It will be interesting to talk to my buddy at the liquor store to see how business is for him.
So let's see...stored fuel, check...food and water, check...genny runs, check...and on it goes...the price of paradise.
Scott
"Tryin' to reason with hurricane season"
So let's see...stored fuel, check...food and water, check...genny runs, check...and on it goes...the price of paradise.
Scott
"Tryin' to reason with hurricane season"
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
All I have to do is look at the historical tracks to grasp the danger. Also, I realize fully that 2004 and 2005 could have been a lot worse, had a couple of bounces (especially with Wilma sitting over the Yucatan) not gone our way. If that hadn't happened, Wilma would have blasted the entirety of S. FL as a Cat. 4 or even 5.
Look at the frequency with which we were hit, often times by major hurricanes, between 1920-1950. And the 1960s were tough too, with Donna, Cleo, Betsy.
Then came 1966-1992. Lot of complacency built up, figuratively and literally. What I find ridiculous, having been here for Andrew, is that a lot of people acted like it didn't even happen, and the big, unwarranted, poorly planned, greed-stoked housing boom continued unabated. I bet that there aren't even that many people left here who remember Andrew.
As for Fay.....I'm not worried. This storm has chosen a difficult path for herself. Rain event if anything, IMO. Worst case scenario, by my reckoning, is a Katrina 1.0. Lot of rain, a little wind, 1-2 days without power. I wouldn't worry. Unless something changes drastically track-wise, it's not gonna bomb to a Cat. 3+.
Look at the frequency with which we were hit, often times by major hurricanes, between 1920-1950. And the 1960s were tough too, with Donna, Cleo, Betsy.
Then came 1966-1992. Lot of complacency built up, figuratively and literally. What I find ridiculous, having been here for Andrew, is that a lot of people acted like it didn't even happen, and the big, unwarranted, poorly planned, greed-stoked housing boom continued unabated. I bet that there aren't even that many people left here who remember Andrew.
As for Fay.....I'm not worried. This storm has chosen a difficult path for herself. Rain event if anything, IMO. Worst case scenario, by my reckoning, is a Katrina 1.0. Lot of rain, a little wind, 1-2 days without power. I wouldn't worry. Unless something changes drastically track-wise, it's not gonna bomb to a Cat. 3+.
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- DanKellFla
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The most complacent people I know are recent arrivals to Florida who have survived blizzards in New York. "How much worse can it be than a blizzard?" Not once has I ever convinced anybody that a blizzard and hurricane are not comparable.
Of course, after 2005, I did have a few that did admit to me that I was right about being prepared for storms. Otherwise, most people I know are aware of the issue and prepare in some way. As was said earlier, no matter where you live, you need to be prepared. The boy scouts say it, the red cross says it, and I even think that there is a bible passage or two about being prepared.
IMHO, the biggest problem that we have in South Florida is decades of poor regulation that allowed inadequate construction all over the place. Why was it ever possible to build a wodden structure just off the intracoastal? And I am not talking about good Dade Couty Pine construction. This is 1980's condos done on the cheap.

IMHO, the biggest problem that we have in South Florida is decades of poor regulation that allowed inadequate construction all over the place. Why was it ever possible to build a wodden structure just off the intracoastal? And I am not talking about good Dade Couty Pine construction. This is 1980's condos done on the cheap.
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- Jinkers
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
Patrick99 wrote:
Then came 1966-1992. Lot of complacency built up, figuratively and literally. What I find ridiculous, having been here for Andrew, is that a lot of people acted like it didn't even happen, and the big, unwarranted, poorly planned, greed-stoked housing boom continued unabated. I bet that there aren't even that many people left here who remember Andrew.
I sure remember Andrew, I was in Homestead at the time, after that I've never been complacent, but your right, I was born and raised here, and I've seen alot of those hurricanes, most people I work with weren't here during Andrew, and some even came after 2004/2005 so they aren't prepared, I tried to warn them, but they know it all.
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Re: Do people really grasp the hurricane danger we face in SE fl
If you think folks along the coast are complacent you should live in the center of the state. Even after having 4 canes come within 50 miles of us in 2004, the people here are still not very prepared.
BTW--Last week I started having an uneasy feeling that I should go through the Hurricane supplies to upgrade them and to get a Food Tote together. It got so strong that this Tue. night I pulled everything out of my hurricane closet and got started. I've also started packing a Grab and Go kit--something I've never done before. I pray I don't need any of it but at my age I've learned not to ignore uneasy feelings.
MomH
BTW--Last week I started having an uneasy feeling that I should go through the Hurricane supplies to upgrade them and to get a Food Tote together. It got so strong that this Tue. night I pulled everything out of my hurricane closet and got started. I've also started packing a Grab and Go kit--something I've never done before. I pray I don't need any of it but at my age I've learned not to ignore uneasy feelings.
MomH
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- knotimpaired
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What amazes me about the Keys is the attitude by the residents and that makes me think back to Hurricane Andrew.
My husband and I with another couple rented a house for a week in Marathon. On Thursday of that week while out diving we heard the first forecast (the house came with a 22' Aquasport). Out of the blue a warning. Nothing major but enough to worry me.
I decided that it may be prudent to return home to Jupiter and make sure the house was taken care of. My husband and our friends decided to stay and wait it out because they felt that it would turn.
I chartered a plane out of Marathon to take me to WPB. While they stayed and partied with most of the other residents, late saturday they decided it was time to leave. They along with every other fool who decided to stay.
Needless to say they were caught on 1, in bottleneck traffic along with many others that waited till the last minute.
I distinctly remember flying over Elliott Key and thinking it would probably be the last time it looked so beautiful.
I was right.
My husband and I with another couple rented a house for a week in Marathon. On Thursday of that week while out diving we heard the first forecast (the house came with a 22' Aquasport). Out of the blue a warning. Nothing major but enough to worry me.
I decided that it may be prudent to return home to Jupiter and make sure the house was taken care of. My husband and our friends decided to stay and wait it out because they felt that it would turn.
I chartered a plane out of Marathon to take me to WPB. While they stayed and partied with most of the other residents, late saturday they decided it was time to leave. They along with every other fool who decided to stay.
Needless to say they were caught on 1, in bottleneck traffic along with many others that waited till the last minute.
I distinctly remember flying over Elliott Key and thinking it would probably be the last time it looked so beautiful.
I was right.
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