ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm not sure they will upgrade yet since it is onshore

Evidence says they have too..No?

[Derek Ortt]

based upon surface obs, the center is closer to the south shore of the DR than the north shore

[txag2005]

based upon surface obs, the center is closer to the south shore of the DR than the north shore

Do you think this system can survive passing over DR and possibly Cuba?

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow:

If the cloud tops are warming it means there are less deep reds in the IR loop which means its probably on a weakening trend (maybe)

of course the weakening trend is just temporary, but you may be right...

Not if the center (if there finally is one) stays over the islands for a good period of time.

That's why I said temporary, until it once again emerges into open water...., but I'm starting to side with Derek on the more south track, and also that it looks like re-development won't start occuring for another couple of days

[Vortex]

this is a DR NIGHTMARE! A very deadly situation unfolding tonight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm not sure they will upgrade yet since it is onshore

Well if this system is in fact a tropical storm, then isn't the NHC obligated to give the public the truth? To just pretend that this system is not a TS when the data points to it being one would be somewhat silly, IMO.

[gatorcane]

to me it seems this system as slowed down some. Not sure what that means though but what does everybody think?

Theres also a TUTT low off to the NE on the move towards the Caribbean -- wonder if it will catch 92L and seriously hamper it?

[Vortex]

hope everyone enjoyed the brief lull...from here on out for the next several next many of us will be on 24/7 adrenaline.

[terstorm1012]

this is a DR NIGHTMARE! A very deadly situation unfolding tonight.

More so for Haiti as this low passes by it then the DR. The DR at least still has forests on its hillsides that can help absorb all that water that's falling from the sky. Haiti, unfortunately, not so much.

we can only hope it fizzles.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not sure they will upgrade yet since it is onshore

Well if this system is in fact a tropical storm, then isn't the NHC obligated to give the public the truth? To just pretend that this system is not a TS when the data points to it being one would be somewhat silly, IMO.

The way they would do so right now is with a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement. They are not going to issue a special advisory only an hour before the scheduled advisory.

[SouthFloridawx]

[alicia83]

based upon surface obs, the center is closer to the south shore of the DR than the north shore

Just what I'd been thinking for some little time now. Glad to hear confirmation. I never did believe in the little semi naked swirl north of the island some were claiming as a center. The clouds training south and then across DR/Hispanola begged to differ in my meager opinion.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe they will fix this in post season to add it to its track, or if it don't make it add it to the overall season.

[physicx07]

I'm sure they will declare it with sufficient evidence, which I would guess exists now. They have nothing to gain by downplaying an actual system.

edit: Ooops, somehow I quoted the wrong message. Sorry Gatorcane.

to me it seems this system as slowed down some. Not sure what that means though but what does everybody think?

Theres also a TUTT low off to the NE on the move towards the Caribbean -- wonder if it will catch 92L and seriously hamper it?

[Category 5]

Hello Fay

AL, 06, 2008081518, , BEST, 0, 185N, 686W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 0, 0, 75, 1013,

[seaswing]

to me it seems this system as slowed down some. Not sure what that means though but what does everybody think?

Thinking about which direction she should go

[cpdaman]

based upon surface obs, the center is closer to the south shore of the DR than the north shore

yes but on the eastern side of the island , there can't be much more than 35 miles that separate's the north and south side, the question i have is which coast will it be closer to when the LLC reaches 73 W (western side of island)

whatever this storm becomes declared in the next 30 minutes, it will be introduced to the mountains when it gets west of 70W unless some erratic motion causes it to jog south or north , which these things have been known to do in this part of the world.

[SouthFloridawx]

AL, 06, 2008081518, , BEST, 0, 185N, 686W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 0, 0, 75, 1013, 150, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[artist]

AFM:
So if 92L tracks south of of DR what does that say to an expected future track?

I think the Fl panhandle or possibly as far west as AL could have issues. ...but somewhere along the west coast of FL would be my guess...

A little Bold statment for a pro. From a non pro is par for the corse. That would really up set a few people. Would make some who really don't have the money go out and buy things when they could use it on their bills. Some people don't think like that. I think till NHC knows where the center is I wouldn't say where it could go.

Sorry if I steped out of place.

For you all in the Islands I hope you stay safe.

how is that bold? He was asked IF it tracked south of the DR. He answered what the likely course could be.

[OuterBanker]

Isn't it Haiti that has cut all their trees down to use for charcoal and have no defense against rain?