ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[haml8]

As a wave, this feature has generated news here in south florida....if we have a named system and south florida is in the 'cone' at 5pm, this is really going to take off as a news item down here.....the onslaught will begin in less than an hour

LOL and The Weather Channel just showed their "It Could Happen Tomorrow" this afternoon - with a cat 5 hitting Miami.

I saw that... talk about timing huh?? Just coincidence mind you...not official prognosis... thank the maker!

[loro-rojo]

Officially TS Fay according to the NHC site.

[Dean4Storms]

Tropical Storm FAY Forecast/Advisory
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000
WTNT21 KNHC 152030
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR
THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH
COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES
NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 68.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.9N 71.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 74.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 82.0W...OVER COAST OF FLORIDA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 69.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Derek Ortt]

NRL has it as NONAME, not Fay

[gatorcane]

peninsula FL...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents

[Air Force Met]

they did check north of the island though

i figured about an hour or so ago it was just a vorticy that i was tracking as it started to acclerate.

Of course they checked north of the island...they fly an alpha pattern...and they often fly in areas they don't need to.

[CrazyC83]

35 kt is really conservative with the data out there...I wonder what the discussion will say.

[Brent]

[haml8]

Officially TS Fay according to the NHC site.

Lots of "Image not ready!" Wouldn't want to be in anyones shoes who has to predict this. This storm has been VERY unpredictable..

[Steve]

>>That would be fun but unlikely.

It's happened before (early 2000's) with a storm that bred a couple of others. You usually see the mid/upper level split off from the surface - often seen in/near the fall with EPAC systems where the "naked swirls" continue on but the upper energy heads into the US.

JMO

Steve

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like NHC split down the middle of most of the guidance and takes it into SW Florida.

[Ptarmigan]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 152030
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR
THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH
COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES
NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 68.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.9N 71.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 74.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 82.0W...OVER COAST OF FLORIDA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 69.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Link

[SkeetoBite]

[BigA]

As much as I hate playing politics with meteorology, I have to commend the NHC for predicting 70mph at landfall in Florida. This way, the irresponsible media will not scream "Hurricane expected to hit Florida" when Fay may well dissipate into an open wave over Hispaniola (and may well reform later)

[storms in NC]

I said I was sorry too if I steped out of place too. In which I did (step of of place). Sorry again.

[Extremeweatherguy]

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST #1 (FORECAST #3 FOR THE SYSTEM OVERALL):


**Times are based on an 18z timescale. For instance, 24 Hrs would indicate where this is at 1pm on Saturday, not 5pm**

92L has finally become well enough organized to become Tropical Storm Fay this evening.

Track: The track of this storm has been shifted slightly west in response to the center being found ever so slightly to the south of where it was initially expected to be. In the long-term, this will mean a path much closer to the west coast of Florida rather than the east coast.

Strength: The storm should be slow to strengthen over the next 48 hours as it traverses the islands. However, beyond 48 hours there does appear to be a 24-72 hour window where this could try and get its act together. At this time, I do predict that Fay will reach minimal hurricane strength just west of Florida where warm waters and favorable upper-level winds will help to enhance the storm.

Final Landfall: I expect a final landfall to take place in the big bend of Florida (a rare spot for hurricanes) sometime on Wednesday morning or afternoon. Keep in mind though that small deviations in the track can make a huge impact in the eventual landfall spot. Because of this, the entire eastern Gulf coast and southern section of Florida should watch this system closely.

INTENSITY FORECAST:

INITIAL: 35KT (40mph)
18Z SAT: 40KT (46mph)
18Z SUN: 40KT (46mph)
18Z MON:60KT (69mph)
18Z TUES: 70KT (81mph)
18Z WED: 70KT (81mph)

[Vortex]

As much as I hate playing politics with meteorology, I have to commend the NHC for predicting 70mph at landfall in Florida. This way, the irresponsible media will not scream "Hurricane expected to hit Florida" when Fay may well dissipate into an open wave over Hispaniola (and may well reform later)

definetely a psychological factor given the high uncertainty forecast with all the landmass.

[OuterBanker]

Looks like it was named for DR's sake because of TS conditions. No advisory or discussion yet.

[SouthFLTropics]

Vivian Brown in TWC just said that if you stay with them you will be the FIRST to know if the disturbance becomes a depression.

I guarantee you that if you stay with us you will be ALWAYS THE FIRST to know when a cyclone has formed.

This was not paid by SK2 and HURAKAN approves this message

Yeah...That's what I'm talking about...You laid it out there just right HURAKAN... I think S2K needs a round of applause

Maybe TWC needs some competition...I think S2K should start a TV channel...

[AdamFirst]

WPEC in West Palm Beach interrupted Family Feud to tell us that Fay has formed.

It's showtime.