ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Normandy]

Rainfall is gonna be deadly for Hispanola....seems like Fay is deepening for some odd reason despite being over DR. Satellite presentation has only improved since it came ashore.

[HURAKAN]

[DESTRUCTION5]

my concern for the peninsula would be a cleo type track feeding off the extremely high oceanic heat content just south of cuba then a north turn up the spine..


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Cleo_1964_track.png

She's feeding on something right now Vortex..LOL

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

As I said normandy before DR really won't hurt this system as much as many think it would have as its bursting right now which is keeping the circulation going...but it will weaken when it goes over the mountions I'd have thought down to a TD I reckon.

[Dean4Storms]

I see only a west movement as well.

This is going to be a tricky intensity forecast.

[KWT]

my concern for the peninsula would be a cleo type track feeding off the extremely high oceanic heat content just south of cuba then a north turn up the spine..


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Cleo_1964_track.png

Actually thats the BEST case to happen, it'd only get about 12hrs over water in Cuba which won't be enough time to totally sort out its core again after being over DR for 24hrs or so, then back over Cuba which will maybe only slightly weaken it then another 18hrs of maybe quick strengthening possibly to strong TS strength...much better option then going west, getting 24hrs over water before Cuba, then another 2-3 days over the loop current as well.

[Shockwave]

With this thing still bursting convection, the more time over the waters could only mean ONE thing...a rapid intensification process and possibly major hurricane status. Are most of the models leaning towards a gulf tracker or are they 50 gulf/50 florida? The bad thing is, is that this will affect the US in some shape form or fashion.

[artist]

artist,

I am involved in Disaster Management here where I live in the Turks & Caicos. I had prior experience in DM back in the States where I hail from (New England) and now with a different flair, this being the Caribbean where we live.

At a recent seminar I attended which was hosted by USAID, the subject of animal behavior prior to a weather event (more speciafically disasters in this instance)was discussed at length.....it made mention (of course) of the tsunami several years back and also, on patterns of animal behavior which have been observed prior to earthquakes. It is said the animals' behavior is a type of "sixth sense" which we humans have somehow lost.

There are currently some studies underway on animal behavior in these types of situations, but nothing is "set-in-stone". So, you are definately on to something....

The threat to us here in the T&C is now over (for this storm at least) and I wish everyone to be safe and well in the path of Fay.

greels, how interesting! I do seem to recall how the elephants sought higher ground or something along those lines with the tsunami. I don't doubt we have lost that sense ourselves sinc ewe have the NHC, etc., etc. to rely on anymore rather than ourselves. It's kind of sad in a way. To have the USAID to bring it up makes me think we do need to study it further. So glad you are safe now, just remember things can still change and it is just close enough to you to keep your eye out.


LSU - now that is funny!

[Dean4Storms]

The major models, GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UK, CMC have been trending over the Gulf toward the NE Gulf coast.

THat could entirely change though at this point.

[OuterBanker]

Wow, just returned from vet. Really like tpc track. Only a ts through Fl and probably providing much needed rains in se. Great scenario.

[fasterdisaster]

This will sound horrible of me but if this hits me as a puny 40 mph storm I'll be depressed as it had so much potential.

[HURAKAN]

[txwatcher91]

Convection maintaining very well so far. Will be interesting to see what it looks like tomorrow morning. Gonna be some long nights ahead for those in the cone.

Slighly OT, but does anyone think it is wrong to joke about a Cat 5 hitting and causing alot of destruction?

[HURAKAN]

Wow, just returned from vet. Really like tpc track. Only a ts through Fl and probably providing much needed rains in se. Great scenario.

60-knot TS.

[KWT]

Of course the NHC has a 60kts *just* off the Florida coast, if this gets too far west then its going to have a far better chance of becoming a hurricane...

[HURAKAN]

The images are being updated every 10 minutes or less in some occasions.

[RL3AO]

Wow, just returned from vet. Really like tpc track. Only a ts through Fl and probably providing much needed rains in se. Great scenario.

60-knot TS.

But if it was 65 knots, the reaction would be OH MY GOD A HURRICANE INTO FLORIDA!!!. But its "only" a tropical storm.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is my basic equation for the next 24 hours regarding Fay:

The stronger it gets, The more north it goes.

btw, the new GFS is pointing at SFL.

[greels]

Artist,,,,,

Exactly! The reason why this was pointed out to us,in particular, is that we do not have the all the "tools " you folks have back in the States to give us the immediate weather data we might like to have...the majority of the population here does not have access to internet, much less some of them....televisions...so...when it's back to the very basics...."watch the animals" so to speak .....