ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[storms in NC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008




LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM FRIDAY...TWO SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES HERE...BETWEEN THE COASTAL
LOW ADVERTISED BY THE GFS FOR MONDAY...AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
RECENTLY NAMED T.S. FAY.

REGARDING MONDAY...THE GFS LOW LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE FEEDBACK AND
NAM SHOWS NOTHING OF THE SORT. WILL REJECT THE GFS SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT OR CONTINUITY...AND MAINTAIN AN E/NE WIND
DIRECTION.


LATER IN THE PERIOD...FAY WILL NEED TO CHOOSE ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER
OF FLORIDA. NEW NHC SOLUTION IS WEST OF FLORIDA...BUT GIVEN THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA... THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY AS THE SWELL
STARTS TO COME INTO PLAY.

[AL Chili Pepper]

if this goes over land the whole way, how can it not get ripped up by hispaniola and then cuba? It would have to stay to the south over water but I think it will stay acrossed land. and then we may not have to worry about this whole thing.

It would hold the intensification down, but not necessarily rip it up. If the core survives, it can intensify in short order once it emerges over water. Frederic in '79 traversed the mountains of Hispaniola and the entire length of Cuba, and attained Cat 3 status shortly after.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19796.asp

[DAVE440]

I save everything. That's probably why my hard drive keeps saying FULL Please delete some files....

Found these tracking charts for TS Chris. Note anything similar?
Almost exact same position Fay is now and projected to be east of
or target S.Florida. Then the track continued to shift west.
Don't know what the conditions were then to influence it but I'm guessing a high was in place or built in to the east of Florida.

Just thought it was an interesting comparison. 5 Maps attached. Click to enlarge each.

[artist]

now you have got to get a picture of that for us here shrimper! lol (I miss my bassett - we lost her about 3 years ago.)

[hial2]

People, it's too early to say what could happen to Florida. Fay could easily stay south of the track, more water to travel, or in a more northern track, more land to travel. Fay's LLC could easily dissipate over the mountains and develop over the southern side of Hispaniola. There are a lot of things that may happen between now and Wednesday.

Wednesday Hurakan? West Florida maybe but what about the Keys or SE Fla? Do you think the TC will slow down that much?

[cycloneye]

Here is Federic in 1979.It tracked over Puerto Rico,Hispanola and Cuba,then in the GOM became a cat 3.

[Aric Dunn]

and then there this guy!!

[cycloneye]

Winds increase to 45 mph.From 8 PM advisory.

SHIP OBERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING MAINLY OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY IS OVER HISPANIOLA.

[dizzyfish]

I forgot to add about the squirrels! (not your dog shrimper - LOL, and I do remember you posting about that!)

We were boarding up the back of the house in 2004 and I kept hearing this thunk, thunk and it was the durn squirrels knocking the pine cones out of the pine tree. lol

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is it me or is fay moving on a WNWWARD movement??????

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

are systems like these able to "bounce" off these mountainous areas?

The mountains tend to disrupt well formed storms that require continuous warm moist inflow from the low levels, and outflow out of the top. Hurricanes that is. Thats because land isn't wet! And mountains are high and they block the low level air!

The disruption is what is likely to cause a change in direction, so its not the mountains that does it, but the change in synoptics, which might change the timing of troughs, ridges, steering flow, etc.

So no - a TC never bounces off anything. It might suddenly change direction, I'm thinking Wilma off Yucatan, and Jeanne 2004. They both suddenly changed direction due to land interaction.

[Ed Mahmoud]

and then there this guy!!

I give up, who?

[maxx9512]

Is it me or is fay moving on a WNWWARD movement??????

I was noticing that myself and was wondering the same thing.
Sure looks like that.

[sunny]

and then there this guy!!

I give up, who?

Georges - 1998

[Aric Dunn]

and then there this guy!!

I give up, who?

georges

[AdamFirst]

Is it me or is fay moving on a WNWWARD movement??????

Upper Level Circulation looks like it's going WNW but the Low Level is still going west, although (I've already said I tend to see things) a few frames on the Dominican radar show jogs to the WNW...I'm not certain

[HURAKAN]

People, it's too early to say what could happen to Florida. Fay could easily stay south of the track, more water to travel, or in a more northern track, more land to travel. Fay's LLC could easily dissipate over the mountains and develop over the southern side of Hispaniola. There are a lot of things that may happen between now and Wednesday.

Wednesday Hurakan? West Florida maybe but what about the Keys or SE Fla? Do you think the TC will slow down that much?

Wednesday, meaning, when everything is set and done in the track.

[maxx9512]

Is it me or is fay moving on a WNWWARD movement??????

Upper Level Circulation looks like it's going WNW but the Low Level is still going west, although (I've already said I tend to see things) a few frames on the Dominican radar show jogs to the WNW...I'm not certain

We will probably do a this way, that way, alot more while it interacts with the land areas.
This storm is very hard to judge just from the satellite images for sure.

[TheShrimper]

I'll keep a real observant eye and ear as to what is going on tomorrow. I'll be outside all day and this summer for some reason has hosted a hell of alot more birds (mocking, bluejays, wrens) than I have ever seen previous. Come to think, it was pretty quiet today, but I wasn't really looking out for the possible deviation.....tomorrow I will be, and if the hound is doing his gymnastics once again, I'll be taking some sh-t inside.

[storms in NC]

As far as Fay goes she could do any thing. She has been the hardest thing to pin down. I still don't see the center but that is not saying much.

To the people of Dr and Haiti & Cuba I pray you will come out safe and sound.