ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its been overland for about 6-7 hours, I expect it will be moving back over water within the next 6-7 hours. Also the way the southern convection appears makes me believe that the system will likely keep moving westward. So between Jamaica and Cuba is looking slightly more likely, Dennis 2005 track.

That last part was just a guest on what could happen.

I believe it will move south of Cuba in some of the hottest surface waters in the Atlantic. I believe it could be possible for a landfall near where Dennis hit, but so far not going to put any money on it. It all comes down to track and does it move south of Cuba.

on the Dennis 05 track, do you think it could possibly make landfall in the same area, or are you just talking about in the Cuba/Jamaica area?

[gatorcane]

Wxman it has been a *long* time since the Greater Tampa Bay area has seen hurricane force winds. Even Elena stayed far enough away to prevent any winds higher than TS.

Climatology says NO to a West Coast of Florida hit.

[Ivanhater]

I think the NHC will nudge the track a little west on the next advisory, probably just grazing the western peninsula near Sarasota and Clearwater then inland into the far eastern panhandle. That should allow it to become a hurricane with a path that rakes the entire western peninsula. Of course, as we saw with Charley, only a tiny course change would make a tremendous difference in the prime impact area.

Do you think the westward trend will continue, or start locking in where they are now?

[lonelymike]

Hey WX57 you still think this could past 85W? I believe you said the other day that the winds above would be blowing west to east? Thanks always appreciate your obs:)

[Windtalker1]

I think the NHC will nudge the track a little west on the next advisory, probably just grazing the western peninsula near Sarasota and Clearwater then inland into the far eastern panhandle. That should allow it to become a hurricane with a path that rakes the entire western peninsula. Of course, as we saw with Charley, only a tiny course change would make a tremendous difference in the prime impact area.

Do you think the westward trend will continue, or start locking in where they are now?

I think it will go back and forth all weekend with the end result up the middle of the state.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Of course I have a class at Eckerd College Thursday night on the ground floor.

IF this heads up the west coast of Florida, when would be the timeframe for largest impact in Tampa Bay?

[jaxfladude]

I think the NHC will nudge the track a little west on the next advisory, probably just grazing the western peninsula near Sarasota and Clearwater then inland into the far eastern panhandle. That should allow it to become a hurricane with a path that rakes the entire western peninsula. Of course, as we saw with Charley, only a tiny course change would make a tremendous difference in the prime impact area.

wxman57, does Fay mean that you will be working long, long hours again?

Hopefully you will get a break to eat and sleep during Fay!

[storms in NC]

I think the NHC will nudge the track a little west on the next advisory, probably just grazing the western peninsula near Sarasota and Clearwater then inland into the far eastern panhandle. That should allow it to become a hurricane with a path that rakes the entire western peninsula. Of course, as we saw with Charley, only a tiny course change would make a tremendous difference in the prime impact area.

Do you think the westward trend will continue, or start locking in where they are now?

I think it will go back and forth all weekend with the end result up the middle of the state.

I will see this Fay in the Am. Maybe then I can see the center. I have never had trouble see the center. But I am having trouble with Fay Girl. So Good Night all. See ya around 5 AM

[Sanibel]

Big track shift since this morning. Has me under the gun but see it shifted more west again.


Always watch storms that burst while over land. Not what you want to see when you are downrange.

[Rainband]

Off topic posts will be deleted without warning

[HurricaneQueen]

Wxman it has been a *long* time since the Greater Tampa Bay area has seen hurricane force winds. Even Elena stayed far enough away to prevent any winds higher than TS.

Climatology says NO to a West Coast of Florida hit.

Gatorcane:

Go Gators!!!! Could you please explain your comment? I like what you are saying but don't understand the thought process. Thanks,
Lynn

[marciacubed]

Off topic posts will be deleted without warning

I wish you had deleted it a few minutes earlier. I was recording it now I know what happened.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

A station on the southern coast has turned out of the east. That means one of two things 1# It has reformed near 18.2/71 in is now over water or 2# it is no longer closed.

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Hey WX57 you still think this could past 85W? I believe you said the other day that the winds above would be blowing west to east? Thanks always appreciate your obs:)

I wouldn't forecast west of 85 now, but I'd say it has about a 30% chance of moving inland west of 85W. Steering currents get weak in the Gulf by Tuesday (not as much W-NW winds in the mid levels by then.

[canegrl04]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM//rmsdsol/tropical.html

A station on the southern coast has turned out of the east. That means one of two things 1# It has reformed near 18.2/71 in is now over water or 2# it is no longer closed.

# 1 is the worst possible news

[Dean4Storms]

Wxman it has been a *long* time since the Greater Tampa Bay area has seen hurricane force winds. Even Elena stayed far enough away to prevent any winds higher than TS.

Climatology says NO to a West Coast of Florida hit.

Well we have had a fall like Trough in the east most of August so far so I wouldn't bank too much on climatology with this one as it has been more like late Sept. than mid August.

[robbielyn]

Wxman it has been a *long* time since the Greater Tampa Bay area has seen hurricane force winds. Even Elena stayed far enough away to prevent any winds higher than TS.

Climatology says NO to a West Coast of Florida hit.

Gatorcane:

Go Gators!!!! Could you please explain your comment? I like what you are saying but don't understand the thought process. Thanks,
Lynn

If you lay a 3d map flat and you see how the us looks kinneycorner, you will see just how hard it is to get a west coast hit minus your area you are more prone but say north of ft meyers the storms have to make a sharp right turn that without a trough to push it in that direction doesn't happen it will go n into the panhandle. Now if it were oct the troughs would make this far south and could push it into west coast of fl. Wish i could draw a picture for you to better help you understand what I am saying. It can ride up the coast but to have the center make landfall you need a trough or steering currents.

[cpdaman]

what time is 22:42 ATC = in UTC

this dominican radar looks to show a turning motion building South as the LLC gets to the mountains

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman, if the currents get weak wouldn't that slow fay down and she really not move one way or the other? Also isn't the ridge supposed to be getting stronger by the middle of the week?