#4710 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 15, 2008 10:41 pm
>>I hope you are wrong as I lie directly between P'Cola and PCB just west of Destin. But that is a great job and I cannot find any argument toward your reasoning at this point. All I can hope for is that the weakness doesn't verify and Fay heads off further west, sorry LA.
Heh. Biggest problem throughout LA is the lost of coastal protection. People have no idea the strategic importance to the United States of America points on our coast are. From the salt mines that hold much of the national oil reserves to Port Fourchon, there just isn't that much protection anymore. Forget what a map looks like. Any land away from highways is swampgrass these days. We lose like 2 football fields an hour or something, so everyone is exposed. No telling how the levees would hold up either. Would be tough.
At the same time, I've been in and out of the Panhandle a few times since Ivan (Pensacola Beach and Navarre Beach) and it's still pretty bad over there. Real Estate has taken an insane hit further over in Walton and Okaloosa Counties - particularly Santa Rosa Beach and much of the 30A corrdior, and another hurricane could be major trouble up that way. I've seen many properties take 2% per month reductions in value for over 2 years. A lot of developers and land speculators have gone belly up.
Coastal Mississippi is mostly still destroyed - particularly Hancock and Harrison Counties. Jackson County (Pascagoula/Ocean Springs/Moss Bluff) was quicker to recover, as was Mobile County north of the river. Mobile County suffered mostly in the low-lying rural areas such as Grand Bay, Dauphin Island and Bayou La Batre with Katrina, though Baldwin County was mostly untouched (had some problems with Ivan on that side of Mobile Bay).
IMHO a major hit almost anywhere between Panama City to southern Terrebonne Parish (Dulac, Cocadrie, etc. - which got hammered by Rita Surge) would cause a lot of suffering for northern Gulf Coast people who don't really need anymore for a while. St. Mary Parish (south Central LA) hasn't taken that much though Lili caused some problems. Obviously farter west Rita did serious damage through Vermilion and Cameron (SW LA) Parishes along with Orange, Jefferson and Chambers Counties, Texas.
Whatever happens - this isn't to say I'm even calling for a north Gulf Landfall (sticking with my Bahamas/Miami to NC/SC Border until it's no longer a possibility {e.g. going down with the sinking ship if necessary}) - it could be bad for a lot of people depending on intensity.
Steve
Last edited by
Steve on Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I still don't think the models have a handle on this thing. Yea, I can only see the MLC but the cloud blob is moving / drifting / shrinking southwest.
