ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Noles2006]

:uarrow:

MiamiWx keep in mind only 1 system has affected the panhandle of FL in 150 years of systems forming where Fay is located (month of August). It happened, way way back in 1851, most either head to the Western GOM or impact Southern FL or stay east of Southern FL....

This would be a big exception if this track to the panhandle verified.

Since when does climo control storms of the present? If the NHC forecasted everything based on climo then they would be wrong a lot.

Yeah... especially these last few years... how many times have we seen "firsts" since 2004?

[jaxfladude]

the disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


If I were the Governor of Florida, I would send this memo out to all media right now due to the weekend and possibly of an major impact fay may have on my state....
ALL RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TS "FAY" THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FORECAST TRACK AND AND HOW SEVERE OR NOT THE IMPACT WILL BE FOR THE STATE. PLEASE TAKE SOME TIME TO WATCH YOUR LOCAL MEDIA NEWSCAST AND/OR GO ONLINE TO THE NHC/TPC WEBSITE FOR THE VERY LATEST INFO ON TS "FAY"

[cycloneye]

Pic at 11:45 PM EDT:

[Evil Jeremy]

Isnt there suppoused to be a Gulfstream Recon flight tonight? When is the next time that we get a plane out there?

EDIT: Posted just as the Recon thread was brought back up to the top lol. I have my answer now lol.

[Brent]

Isnt there suppoused to be a Gulfstream Recon flight tonight? When is the next time that we get a plane out there?

The Gulfstream is tomorrow night. Recon is due for a fix at 2am ET, should be leaving very soon.

[bahamaswx]

Looks like the LLC is still well inland. How likely is a relocation under the deep convection over water?

[timeflow]

Thanks, I went to the archive and found it was Ernesto that got disrupted by Haiti, but also from SW shear due to an ULL near the Bahamas. It reached Hurricane strength and was progged to remain a Hurricane after Cuba, but the disruptions permanently rendered it a TS.

Here's how its track projection evolved over time...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/graphics/al05/loop_5W.shtml

[Sanibel]

On further review the south center is wrong. It's an island quirk.

Edit: A closer look at Shortwave loop shows the center slightly north of west maybe as much as 272* or so. Track is N of W.

Edit: close enough to NHC track on even further review to not change their prediction.

[SouthFLTropics]

the disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


If I were the Governor of Florida, I would send this memo out to all media right now due to the weekend and possibly of an major impact fay may have on my state....
ALL RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TS "FAY" THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FORECAST TRACK AND AND HOW SEVERE OR NOT THE IMPACT WILL BE FOR THE STATE. PLEASE TAKE SOME TIME TO WATCH YOUR LOCAL MEDIA NEWSCAST AND/OR GO ONLINE TO THE NHC/TPC WEBSITE FOR THE VERY LATEST INFO ON TS "FAY"

Shouldn't it read "or go online to NHC/TPC or Storm2k.org website for the very latest information" LOL...Shameless Plug...

[robbielyn]

could someone give me the climo for wilma in 1921? What made that storm hit tampa directly? If I knew that then it would be easy to cancel out a hit with fay. Obviously it's a rare occurence so something must have been special that year. Anyone have a track also?

[HURAKAN]

GFS agrees with the NHC forecast.

[HURAKAN]

could someone give me the climo for wilma in 1921? What made that storm hit tampa directly? If I knew that then it would be easy to cancel out a hit with fay. Obviously it's a rare occurence so something must have been special that year. Anyone have a track also?

October is very different from August. You get much stronger cold fronts in October allowing for a stronger weakness in the ridge.

[HurricaneBelle]

could someone give me the climo for wilma in 1921? What made that storm hit tampa directly? If I knew that then it would be easy to cancel out a hit with fay. Obviously it's a rare occurence so something must have been special that year. Anyone have a track also?

The 1921 hurricane (not named Wilma) was a classic October west coast of FL hit from the SW ahead of a trough.

Nothing in common with the current synoptic setup.

[El Nino]

GFS agrees with the NHC forecast.

Only a 1008mb low ! Is that possible ?

[Blown Away]

Alot can happen!! Fay only makes it to Key West in 72 hours, that's Monday night! Plenty of time for Fay to fool everybody again.

[Wthrman13]

Only a 1008mb low ! Is that possible ?

The GFS has way too coarse of a resolution to resolve the inner core of a TC, where the tightest pressure gradient lies. At best, it will only predict a representation of the outer circulation of the TC, which is typically good enough for track purposes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not saying it will happen, but I think it could, maybe 50/50 chance. New center develops South of Haiti/DR border region soon, following deepest convection, which could, if it happened, shift risk area further West, Panhandle to Mississippi.


Maybe. I have heard it mentioned that center reformation South of Hispaniola is relatively rare.

[SouthFLTropics]

Alot can happen!! Fay only makes it to Key West in 72 hours, that's Monday night! Plenty of time for Fay to fool everybody again.

With the Lower Keys under the gun I would think that some very important government decisions will have to start being made tomorrow AM with regards to evacuations, etc.

[robbielyn]

could someone give me the climo for wilma in 1921? What made that storm hit tampa directly? If I knew that then it would be easy to cancel out a hit with fay. Obviously it's a rare occurence so something must have been special that year. Anyone have a track also?

October is very different from August. You get much stronger cold fronts in October allowing for a stronger weakness in the ridge.

Oh ok it was in october that would make some sense but still how many octobers have gone by with no landfalling storms they seem to go to the panhandle. something different happened with wilma in 1921. oh someone posted the track. That would make even more sense since the track was near the bay of campeche making a wide right turn instead of a sharp wide turn that this storm would have to do. Ok I am satisfied this won't even ride the coast. Think it's a panhandle storm

[Sanibel]

I have heard it mentioned that center reformation South of Hispaniola is relatively rare.

Run a shortwave loop. NHC is reasonably close. Any IR shot you see that looks like reformation is just island tricks.