ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

You can just make out the top of the center circle on this shortwave loop. Right on the NHC trop points. Headed right over the highest peaks. There is zero chance this is reforming south of the island:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

If that little dark spot above the first forecast point is the center than it has moved a little north of the track so far.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dr. Neil Frank was NHC chief for a while, and when he was, there was a relative lull in big hurricanes hitting the US. Then, IIRC, he retired from the government, Bob Sheets took over, and now every few years a big hurricane hits the US, sometimes multiple hits.

[lbvbl]

what would be the difference in the track if the center did reform south of the island?

At this point 50 miles of latitude N or S could make a big difference, IMO.

yes i agree that 50 miles of latitude makes a huge difference. Is there a chance that the center could be found more to the north than previously expected, which would shift the track east?

[Bocadude85]

What happens if fay ends up on the north side of eastern cuba?

[HURAKAN]

47 knots FL wind found to the north of Hispaniola.

043930 1931N 06922W 6962 03218 0124 +094 +000 132046 047 027 004 00

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks pretty good for a tropical storm interacting with 3000 meter mountains, but I sure don't see an "eye".

[haml8]

Dr. Neil Frank was NHC chief for a while, and when he was, there was a relative lull in big hurricanes hitting the US. Then, IIRC, he retired from the government, Bob Sheets took over, and now every few years a big hurricane hits the US, sometimes multiple hits.

"So he was a hurricane shield!" j/k Thanks for the feedback Ed, I always enjoy your posts.

What are your thoughts on this talk of the center re-locating South?

[jinftl]

Fay is moving at a good clip...from 5pm to 11pm, she moved 1.4 degrees West (from 69.4W to 70.8W). If she continues at that clip, she could very well be moving off of the coast of Haiti by 11am Saturday, particularly if she misses the southern peninsula of Haiti which jets out further west.

The speed she is moving may limit the effect of the mountainous terrain.

[Sanibel]

If that little dark spot above the first forecast point is the center than it has moved a little north of the track so far.

That "dark spot" is the top arc of the "eye" being uncovered by clouds. It's headed right down the money on the NHC trop points and is in no way reforming to the south.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think reformation to the area roughly South of the Haiti/DR border is better than a 50/50 shot, even though my understanding is most center reformations around Hispaniola occur to the North.


Hard to make pronouncements with great certainty from nightime IR, and today, it was hard even w/ visible.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can someone circle the 'eye' they think they see?

[Sanibel]

The satellite loop is plainly obvious.

[Brent]

I don't see an eye either.

[HURAKAN]

044930 1952N 07015W 6968 03201 0126 +080 +000 114051 051 028 002 00

51 knots FL

[Ed Mahmoud]

I can see the old circulation center losing convection inland. Sure as heck wouldn't call it an eye. It is reaching the highest peaks of the Central Cordillera now. It might survive and continue as the main center.


But pronouncements from on high about things being certain, an 'eye' on a tropical storm, and the 'eye' being obvious, well, I wouldn't make them. Yo digo.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't want to speak for Sanibel, but I don't think they mean a literal eye (such as with a hurricane). By putting parenthesis around the word, I think they are referring to it as an "eye" more in terms of a center of circulation. If that is indeed the case, then I definitely do agree with them. It looks like the center is still pretty close to where the NHC placed it and not south of Haiti.

[txag2005]

I take it recon data is being posted. Are those gusts or sustained wind speeds? If they are sustained, it almost seems like Fay has strengthened.

[Scorpion]

51 kt FL and not even close to the center

[Sanibel]

But pronouncements from on high about things being certain, an 'eye' on a tropical storm, and the 'eye' being obvious, well, I wouldn't make them. Yo digo.

I defy you to explain what exactly makes that center you acknowledge "old"?

[RL3AO]

19kt surface winds from dropsonde.