Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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ExBailbonds
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#1701 Postby ExBailbonds » Fri Aug 15, 2008 10:58 pm

Oh boy!! Great that means it will cut over cuba wher cuba is relativly flat.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#1702 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 15, 2008 10:58 pm

This run looks about the sameas the last
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Re:

#1703 Postby AJC3 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 10:58 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow:

At 54 hours it makes a NW turn already and the ridge is broken across peninusla FL to the north.....

this run may be more RIGHT actually:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _054.shtml


New H66 850MB vort panel is a wee bit SW of the H72 panel from 18Z
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Re:

#1704 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 10:59 pm

hurricanej wrote:42 hours, looks further south than 18z was:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

i think this will be a bit west of earlier runs.
Yeah, it is further south because the model has Fay take a random SW dip toward Jamaica between hours 18 and 30. Whether or not this dip becomes reality or is just model fantasy is yet to be seen. Personally, I think it will probably wind up being bogus...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#1705 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:04 pm

84 Hours:

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Re: Re:

#1706 Postby AJC3 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:05 pm

AJC3 wrote: New H66 850MB vort panel is a wee bit SW of the H72 panel from 18Z


Still SW of the 18Z run at H84.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#1707 Postby GreenSky » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:06 pm

Doesn't GFS have a bad habit of overdoing weaknesses/troughs...if so, I would take GFS as an eastern outlier.

MW even said, "Also...it is worth noting that the models have had an issue with trying to turn west-moving hurricanes too soon (dating back to 2005 with Ivan and in 2006 with Edouard) moving through this part of the basin. I strongly suspect that a series of small westward adjustments will be made to the forecast track as we move into the weekend."

So I expect to see more and more westward adjustments...Derek has been right on with NHC following up on his track afterwards
Last edited by GreenSky on Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#1708 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:06 pm

Weaker in this run , could explain why it is a tad more west.
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Re: Re:

#1709 Postby hurricanej » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:06 pm

AJC3 wrote:
AJC3 wrote: New H66 850MB vort panel is a wee bit SW of the H72 panel from 18Z


Still SW of the 18Z run at H84.


yep, not a huge shift by most regards, but it is SW of the 18z point.
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#1710 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:10 pm

that little dip that extreme noted could also lead to it being a little further west on this run. Overall though, not much change through 84.
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Re: Re:

#1711 Postby AJC3 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:14 pm

hurricanej wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
AJC3 wrote: New H66 850MB vort panel is a wee bit SW of the H72 panel from 18Z


Still SW of the 18Z run at H84.


yep, not a huge shift by most regards, but it is SW of the 18z point.


The trend continues. New H108 is ever-so-slightly west of the old H114 panel
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Re:

#1712 Postby GreenSky » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:15 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:that little dip that extreme noted could also lead to it being a little further west on this run. Overall though, not much change through 84.


AL, I would be feeling uncomfortable if I were you...my gut feeling is that the models will keep trending west until about your neck of the woods...I am now thinking an Alabama landfall is in the making
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#1713 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:24 pm

00z GFS..further west..hmmm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#1714 Postby AJC3 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Landfall 18Z WED right up Apalachee Bay. Not good.
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#1715 Postby twister » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:27 pm

What chance does Fay have to be a major at LF taking into consideration the mods have been in decent agreement tracking her more west? Thanks.
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Re:

#1716 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:29 pm

twister wrote:What chance does Fay have to be a major at LF taking into consideration the mods have been in decent agreement tracking her more west? Thanks.


Probably rising by the hour.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#1717 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:30 pm

00Z Canadian..still on a NW heading it seems..sigh

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#1718 Postby jinftl » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:55 pm

Would a stronger or weaker system than is currently forecast have any implications on movement....i.e., would a stronger fay be more influenced by factors that could allow a more northerly course or earlier turn...or a weaker fay might track more west and turn north later?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#1719 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:59 pm

Save you a post by posting the Canadian (stinks).

EDIT for SFL: Fay may sink her dentures into west Florida then into panhandle.
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Sat Aug 16, 2008 12:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#1720 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 16, 2008 12:01 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:Save you a post by posting the Canadian...Let's hope Fay stays weak because Florida make get it all it wants out of her.


Huh?
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