ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Steve]

>>BTW- I have a hunch as well....

LMAO. Tell me you didn't photoshop that "L" on there and are joking about the CMISS plot itself.

Steve

[fci]

Anyone remember Irene back in 1999.. I know the syptonic setup is different but just remember how it was supposed to ride up the west coast of Florida but ended riding up the east coast.. just thought I would point out that nothing is written in stone and unexpected things can happen.

I think a big difference between Fay and Irene is that Irene was an October storm which more naturally forms in the West Carib and rides NE. Much less common for that to happen in August.

[Category 5]

If that little dark spot above the first forecast point is the center than it has moved a little north of the track so far.

That "dark spot" is the top arc of the "eye" being uncovered by clouds. It's headed right down the money on the NHC trop points and is in no way reforming to the south.

I think you maybe incorrectly using the term "eye" here.

Incorrectly would be a gross understatement. In fact I wouldn't know what to call it.

How this thing is holding up over Hispaniola has me puzzled. Heck it's already strengthened over land.

One more thing, this to everyone

CALM DOWN

[Scorpion]

Recon seems to be supporting a southern reformation.

[mattpetre]

Southern track was adamantly supported from myself. I still see a possible threat to LA that most aren't willing to talk about. I'm not a proffesional and this should not be taken as a forecast, just a suggestion as to a possibility.

[CajunMama]

*sigh* The invest/TS wars are over and the "eye" wars have begun

[Ed Mahmoud]

*sigh* The invest/TS wars are over and the "eye" wars have begun

I was, and am, totally willing to concede the old center may never die. I just thought a reformation South and West seemed possible, as I figure the deepest thunderstorms do the best job evacuating air from the surface.


I was just forwarding a possible outcome, and, if I say so myself, I was the model of decorum and tact while doing it.

[lbvbl]

apparently the Euro model takes Fay EAST of FL... interesting to see how this one will play out

[Bocadude85]

apparently the Euro model takes Fay EAST of FL... interesting to see how this one will play out

where do you see that? only model i see east of florida is the nam

[Steve]

>>where do you see that? only model i see east of florida is the nam

I saw it on yesterday's 00z run (the one they have up on the PSU site), but I don't have access to get anything past the 12z solution. Would also like to see.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

Southern track was adamantly supported from myself. I still see a possible threat to LA that most aren't willing to talk about. I'm not a proffesional and this should not be taken as a forecast, just a suggestion as to a possibility.

Looking at the model thread, the spread between the models is pretty small. But if the center reforms 40 or 50 miles further West and South, which could happen, but might not happen, I would think perhaps the model tracks might shift a similar amount.

I don't feel confident making any prediction, and I don't think even the East Coast of South Florida is totally in the clear yet. All I can say is keep an eye on it, and be prepared to make preparations. Thanks to S2K, I made my Edouard preps on Sunday, and avoided the rush Monday. Edouard turned out pretty minor, and I have a funny feeling Texas may have seen its last hurricane threat this year, but if that funny feeling is wrong, I have a fresh supply of batteries, canned food and bottled water from my Edouard preps, and except for the flashlight batteries, which might get weak sitting a year or two, it'll all get put to use one way or the other eventually.

[Stratosphere747]

[Ed Mahmoud]

>>where do you see that? only model i see east of florida is the nam

I saw it on yesterday's 00z run (the one they have up on the PSU site), but I don't have access to get anything past the 12z solution. Would also like to see.

Steve

As Derek Ortt noted, NAM isn't super well regarded as a tropical model. Note also PSU regional site cuts Florida off at Orlando.



NCEP site


Model loop of 0Z NAM/WRF

[SouthFloridawx]

[lbvbl]

apparently the Euro model takes Fay EAST of FL... interesting to see how this one will play out

where do you see that? only model i see east of florida is the nam

I'm going by whats being said in another forum on a different site. Apparently it was posted on a pay site.

[Steve]

I knew what was up with the NAM. That's been an Eastern Outlier (more along my prediction) for a couple of days. lvbvl mentioned the ECMWF. That's what I wanted to see. But thanks anyway.

Steve

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Tropical storm Fay
Forecast 2#
12am pst/3am est
8-16-2008

Winds 40 knots
pressure 1007 millibars
movement west near 275 degree's
location 18.7/75.5


Fay holds her own as she moves westward over the mountains of DR/Hati. Expected to make it to water within the next 6 hours.

Based on surface data and night time visible the LLC is placed at near 18.7/71.5 moving at near 275 degree's. Winds reported by recon to the north at flight level had a max of 51 knots, but a surface wind no higher then 25 knots. It is likely tropical storm force winds at near 40 knots are within the cluster of convection south of the center. A ob about 50 nmi to the northwest of the LLC shows a south-southeast wind confirming this.

Overall outflow is great in all directions, in fact a anticyclone is almost over the cyclone as of this moment. If it was not over land we would be dealing with a serious system tonight. A tutt to the northeast is moving slowly westward with the system allowing a northly outflow channel to form on our system. The enviroment over this system is very very favorable for a IRC. All this needs to do is get off land for about 24 hours to do so. Once into the gulf models forecast a very favorable environment still...IF this system can stay off land and move over the loop this could become a very powerful cyclone. Right now we will only move the max strength up to 80 knots between 96-120 hour time frame.

The Gfdl 00z brings the center off the coast around 12z or around 8am. It takes it westward south of Cuba. In which case over some of the warmest waters in the whole Caribbean that are around 88-90 degree's. The new run is slightly east of the old one and shows it still becoming a hurricane south of cuba. In which might not be impossible if this can regain a centeral core and stay over water. The Gfs 00z also shows the westward turn under Cuba. Then slides the cyclone up the coast of florida throughout the 120 hours. While the cmc takes the cyclone over the spine of Cuba. Recurving it much sooner into Florida This May become more likely if the northern MLC forms a new LLC. But we believe the old LLC is likely to be the one to watch. We will shift our forecast track slightly rightward as of this forecast to go closer to the core of the models. To be noted the HWRF shows a close southern Florida landfall. But we don't believe we will shift this far east yet. So more inline with the Gfs, Gfdl. Most close to the Gfs.


Forecast
0 40 knots 18.7/71.5
6 35 knots 18.8/72.2
12 35 knots 18.9/73.1
24 45 knots 19.4/75.8
36 55 knots 20.1/78.6
48 60 knots 21.2/80.3
72 65 knots 23.5/82.4
96 75 knots 26.8/83.6
120 80 knots 29.5/84.2

[canetracker]

Recon seems to be supporting a southern reformation.

Are you referring to the MLC they found? Sure likes it could relocate. Can't wait for the final outcome.

[lbvbl]

okay i found a link for the track i'm referring to... does anyone though how reliable this has been in the past? This just proves once again that anything can happen

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ecmwf.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bed time, and while I am still willing to entertain the possibility the old center remains the main center, looking at recon thread, I bumped my 50/50 odds to 60/40 odds of a new center South of Haiti.