ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

Best Track and dvorak positions are in line with the 5 AM track of NHC.

[Sabanic]

If the NHC track is going to verify Fay needs to start moving WNW soon. If not there may be a slight shift westward in the models later.

[Emmett_Brown]

NHC did a great job tracking the center over HISP within all that convective confusion. Their track looks good so far.

[O Town]

Best Track and dvorak positions are on 5 AM track of NHC.

Yeah that was 4 hours ago, looks like its now S of Hispaniola looking at this visible.
But looks can be deceiving.

LINK

[Weatherfreak14]

If the NHC track is going to verify Fay needs to start moving WNW soon. If not there may be a slight shift westward in the models later.

Its right on track, in a way it looks it may go north of the NHC forcast over the next, i seea very slight northward turn maybe by 1 or 2 degrees.

[Shawee]

If the NHC track is going to verify Fay needs to start moving WNW soon. If not there may be a slight shift westward in the models later.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lay48.html

yes, but not immedietely. on the latest update, TWC Lyons had it actually tracking a wee bit wws as it shoots the Jamaica/cuba gap them being recurved by the low in the gulf... still only predictions obviously. i''m inclined to stick with the NHC track for now and watch here more runs.

BTW, nice avatar, but sabin should not to be trusted!

[RL3AO]

Were not even sure where the center is so there is no point in wobble watching and trying to see where it is according to forecast. The center could be 100 miles away from the advisory position for all we know.

[storms in NC]

If the NHC track is going to verify Fay needs to start moving WNW soon. If not there may be a slight shift westward in the models later.

Its right on track, in a way it looks it may go north of the NHC forcast over the next, i seea very slight northward turn maybe by 1 or 2 degrees.

Yeah I seen that too but it also could be just building up to the north making look like it is moved north. But I still think a turn to the North will be vvery soon anyways. JMO

[Aquawind]

Fay is highly annoying now. She takes days to orgainize enough to be classified and then just before land it does. Now after going over a pretty mountainous island it was barely phased. Amazing Fay..

[Ed Mahmoud]

I still think center could reform under deeper convection about a degree South of NHC position.

Decent concensus, especially if center doesn't reform under deeper convection, from 6Z models that this will bend WNW then NW soon, and pass near Keys and Miami.

[canegrl04]

Fay is highly annoying now. She takes days to orgainize enough to be classified and then just before land it does. Now after going over a pretty mountainous island it was barely phased. Amazing Fay..

And if the current NHC track verifies,she could be able to get to major hurricane strength before reacjhing the Panhandle

[Shockwave]

Fay is highly annoying now. She takes days to orgainize enough to be classified and then just before land it does. Now after going over a pretty mountainous island it was barely phased. Amazing Fay..

And that is what has me most concerned. If the intercation with land didn't phase her much at all, then once she hits water (which she already has) I see a, possible, big intensification process for today.

[txwatcher91]

Interesting, the HPC takes it east of Florida, even though the models mostly don't show that.

[TheShrimper]

Very few signs of any birds around here today.......something may be up.

[cycloneye]

[cpdaman]

not so sure Fay has made it away from the DR yet, even if she reaches water near that patch around port au prince she would be surrounded by mountains with limited inflow from the southeast and east especially, but also NE and SW (surrounded by land still) at least in my amateur opinion, it's not like she is emerging into a wide open ocean, but so long as she stays mostly west (say s of 19) she may dodge most of cuba, (may)

[Aquawind]

Fay is highly annoying now. She takes days to orgainize enough to be classified and then just before land it does. Now after going over a pretty mountainous island it was barely phased. Amazing Fay..

And that is what has me most concerned. If the intercation with land didn't phase her much at all, then once she hits water (which she already has) I see a, possible, big intensification process for today.

Looks like it will still go over Cuba's mountains but quickly and with nothing but hot water after.

[Emmett_Brown]

Track is a big concern, but to me, with some part of FL squarely in the cone, i am more concerned about track relative to what it means for intensity. The model shift to the E would suggest less time over water, meaning weaker. We have to hope that Fay stays bogged down in land long enough to be another Ernesto, and not another Charley.

[HURAKAN]

[Aquawind]

Nice radar shot Luis! Clearly over water now.