ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[storms in NC]

The center they have and what I see is at around 19.2 and 74.9. How close am I? Really cause if this is the center it would be the first time I have seen the center. If not I still can't see it. this is the only one I can see.

[Emmett_Brown]

not so sure Fay has made it away from the DR yet, even if she reaches water near that patch around port au prince she would be surrounded by mountains with limited inflow from the southeast and east especially, but also NE and SW (surrounded by land still) at least in my amateur opinion, it's not like she is emerging into a wide open ocean, but so long as she stays mostly west (say s of 19) she may dodge most of cuba, (may)

Yup... dodging Cuba is my concern.

There is a pretty good little short wave trough swinging through the SE at 48 hours, but shear forecast to remain low:

Trough in 48 hours:


Shear still low in EGOM:

[Aquawind]

Track is a big concern, but to me, with some part of FL squarely in the cone, i am more concerned about track relative to what it means for intensity. The model shift to the E would suggest less time over water, meaning weaker. We have to hope that Fay stays bogged down in land long enough to be another Ernesto, and not another Charley.

Exactly.. Best scenario at this point is a shift east right up the middle of the state.. unless it makes a huge shift west into the gulf but that will mean a major hurricane. I like gas prices dropping so I am willing to take one for the team..

[Toyota Thundra]

NO songbirds singing this morning. VERY unusual

[Shockwave]

If Fay misses Cuba all together and stays mostly on water, there's not a good path to go by. It would be bad all the way around.

[HeatherAKC]

I'm more inclined to think the animals are reacting to our excitment and an approaching storm.

That said, I happen to be in Marco Island/SW Florida this weekend (which, btw, is packed with people. I suspect this is the last hurrah before school starts Monday) and my Jack Russel Terrior IS clingy and has been randomly whimpering....

I remember before Andrew (I was in Kendall) the most significant thing to me was the bugs..in the house...coming up through plumbing. Searching for higher ground I guess.

[Blown Away]

Watch the visible loop and turn on the tropical forecast points and the Lat/Long's. I think I see the LLC at 19.2N/73.9W, just north of the second forecast point. Looks like a little dark circle. Just an observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[NDG]

Amazing all of the continuing heavy rains over DR

[hurricanefloyd5]

Track is a big concern, but to me, with some part of FL squarely in the cone, i am more concerned about track relative to what it means for intensity. The model shift to the E would suggest less time over water, meaning weaker. We have to hope that Fay stays bogged down in land long enough to be another Ernesto, and not another Charley.

Exactly.. Best scenario at this point is a shift east right up the middle of the state.. unless it makes a huge shift west into the gulf but that will mean a major hurricane. I like gas prices dropping so I am willing to take one for the team..

I agree I am willing to take one for the home team as well just to keep the gas prizes down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[erik313]

Yeah, gotta be over water. Port-au-prince is reporting east winds

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... ct=WEATHER

[Aquawind]

Well the convection is displaced so actually Fay has taken a hit on structure. But it popping over the water to the west and if/when it fires to the north she will get her groove on.

[crazycajuncane]

Track is a big concern, but to me, with some part of FL squarely in the cone, i am more concerned about track relative to what it means for intensity. The model shift to the E would suggest less time over water, meaning weaker. We have to hope that Fay stays bogged down in land long enough to be another Ernesto, and not another Charley.

Exactly.. Best scenario at this point is a shift east right up the middle of the state.. unless it makes a huge shift west into the gulf but that will mean a major hurricane. I like gas prices dropping so I am willing to take one for the team..

I agree I am willing to take one for the home team as well just to keep the gas prizes down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have plans to boost the New Orleans economy next weekend, so this thing needs to stay on track and head up through Cuba and get torn apart. Then into Florida as a Tropical Storm!

P.S. I like gas prices dropping too!

[HURAKAN]

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think she is going to RI as soon as she hits them bath waters below Cuba...Would not be surprised to see a Cane South of Cuba...

[Aquawind]

If Fay misses Cuba all together and stays mostly on water, there's not a good path to go by. It would be bad all the way around.

I don't think ther is much chance at all it will miss Cuba. However if it goes far enough west it will have flatter terrain to cross and much less impact on the structure..not good. Then it will also have much more time over water pre and post Cuba.

[Blown Away]

You can see the LLC on your graphic. It's moving WNW just N of the second forecast point.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I wold not be surprised to see Hurricane Watches/Warnings go out today for cuba and a possible Hurricane Watch forthe keys tomorrow!!!!!!!!!

[NDG]

Watch the visible loop and turn on the tropical forecast points and the Lat/Long's. I think I see the LLC at 19.2N/74.9W, just north of the second forecast point. Looks like a little dark circle. Just an observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

To me, by looking at the Cuban radar and 1KM high resolution vis loop I see the center near 18.8N & 73.4W, maybe 73.5W. You have to look at different sources.

[Derek Ortt]

Watch the visible loop and turn on the tropical forecast points and the Lat/Long's. I think I see the LLC at 19.2N/74.9W, just north of the second forecast point. Looks like a little dark circle. Just an observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Cuban radar shows it WELL SOUTH of there

This is NOT going to make landfall along the EC of Florida.

[Emmett_Brown]

Nail biter today for folks in the keys... Fay drawing closer, and they are right in the middle of the 72 hour cone. Probably a lot of activity down there today.