ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[canegrl04]

You can see the LLC on your graphic. It's moving WNW just N of the second forecast point.

I agree shes going to cane status before she crosses any land over Cuba

[Weatherfreak14]

Watch the visible loop and turn on the tropical forecast points and the Lat/Long's. I think I see the LLC at 19.2N/74.9W, just north of the second forecast point. Looks like a little dark circle. Just an observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Cuban radar shows it WELL SOUTH of there

This is NOT going to make landfall along the EC of Florida.

Well derek you also said that this wouldnt not develop and "next please" a couple of days ago

[Derek Ortt]

I said next a full week ago... not 2 days ago. I was saying MH then

this is not going to give you guys a direct hit. TS winds and heavy rain? probably

this looks to be a lower keys and WC of Florida storm

[Aquawind]

When the next big convective burt occurs to the west or north of the system we will notice a change in direction. It would be fairly typical for the convection to expand towards the direction of movement

[ALhurricane]

Watch the visible loop and turn on the tropical forecast points and the Lat/Long's. I think I see the LLC at 19.2N/74.9W, just north of the second forecast point. Looks like a little dark circle. Just an observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Cuban radar shows it WELL SOUTH of there

This is NOT going to make landfall along the EC of Florida.

Very much agree. For one, an EC Florida landfall does not jive with me given the lack of a deep trough to help turn it so abruptly north and east. Yes there will be a weakness in the ridge, but I prefer a more gradual turn. I definitely think the FL panhandle is at much greater risk, but I wouldn't rule out a little further west either.

[Just Joshing You]

I just woke up, but the proposed NHC track has it over water for a very long period of time now, with Hurricane hitting Cuba and an 80 kt hitting the pan handle. I smell danger

[cpdaman]

don't we need recon to confirm where the llc is now, instead of radar, or do we have enough obs.

[Blown Away]

[img][/img]

If that is not the LLC, show me where it is.

[Shockwave]

If Fay misses Cuba all together and stays mostly on water, there's not a good path to go by. It would be bad all the way around.

I don't think ther is much chance at all it will miss Cuba. However if it goes far enough west it will have flatter terrain to cross and much less impact on the structure..not good. Then it will also have much more time over water pre and post Cuba.

Ok, I was miss placing the LLC. Sorry. If Fay moves westward, is the the biggest concern for the NHC mets as well as us weather fanactics? Or is there another senerio that could be worse? Other then my proposal of Fay missing Cuba all together.

[Air Force Met]

Watch the visible loop and turn on the tropical forecast points and the Lat/Long's. I think I see the LLC at 19.2N/74.9W, just north of the second forecast point. Looks like a little dark circle. Just an observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

No way. I'm looking at the 1KM vis and its just north of the peninsula where the radar shows it...not even close to your position. At your position there are numerous low level clouds streaming SSW....and also east of there. Closer to 18.9...73.5...give or take 20 miles.

[SkeetoBite]

This is NOT going to make landfall along the EC of Florida.

Well derek you also said that this wouldnt not develop and "next please" a couple of days ago

Derek is correct. If this was going to FL East coast it would have had to begin a turn to the north over night. Didn't happen and nothing in the currently available data points to this happening.

The NHC record over the past 4 seasons for the immediate 72 hour forecast period is pretty darn good. That's who I'm sticking with.

Let's not take swipes at the Pro Mets. This has been a VERY difficult system.

[cpdaman]

[img][/img]

If that is not the LLC, show me where it is.

btw that's 73.9 not 74.9 like in your post

[Air Force Met]

If that is not the LLC, show me where it is.

Well...that certainly isn't at "74.9"...is it?

Your position is at 73.9...and a little more believable.

[HURAKAN]

Excellent Loop: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Blown Away]

[img][/img]

If that is not the LLC, show me where it is.

btw that's 73.9 not 74.9 like in your post

Sorry, sorry, I meant 73.9.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the radar already shows this west of Haiti, then this system seems to be moving slightly faster than the 5am track had predicted. Fay may wind up reaching its 2AM Sunday forecast point by as early as this afternoon or evening...



radar loop: http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Pie ... AXw01a.gif

[cpdaman]

[img][/img]

If that is not the LLC, show me where it is.

btw that's 73.9 not 74.9 like in your post

Sorry, sorry, I meant 73.9.

that doesn't look to be it either, look at hurrakan's loop

[Frank P]

Excellent Loop: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Very interesting loop with that link.. what the heck is going on with the convection rotating in the SW quad of this system.. or at least the tops appear to be doing something weird..

Also apprecate all the posts by our pro mets... you are definitely the voice of reason and sanity for many.... thanks

[Emmett_Brown]

If the radar already shows this west of Haiti, then this system seems to be moving slightly faster than the 5am track had predicted. Fay may wind up reaching its 2AM Sunday forecast point by as early as this afternoon or evening...



radar loop: http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Pie ... AXw01a.gif

Excellent point, Fay does seem a bit ahead of schedule.

[txwatcher91]

This steering chart shows a weakness in the ridge East of FL if I am looking at it right, meaning a WNW or NW turn should commence once it gets to around 76 or 77W. Also, if Fay is moving faster than anticipated would that mean a more N or a more W track?