ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[SkeetoBite]

11am = Approximately 60+ miles to the East after the 72 hour plot

[Dean4Storms]

It looks to me like the center is just emerging off the coast of the Ile de la Gonave (the island north of the peninsula that juts out to the west of Haiti). Nice map here if you're looking for a geography lesson:

Concur, and I think we'll see the center become more obvious from that initial point. This is good because it clips more land - and - bad because it confirms NHC track which goes right over me.


Dean, Katrina being a good case of underestimating the High.

Yep and just this year Bertha comes to mind where the models had her turning into a weakness long before she ever did and she eventually just missed Bermuda to the east.

[Weatherboy1]

Now that the apparent LLC is back over water and the mountains of Hispanola are almost behind Fay, I think we could see her really pop in the next few hours. Hurricane strength before hitting Cuba? I doubt it. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see her get to the upper end of TS strength.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nasty track!

[DESTRUCTION5]

with all the persistent convection overnight south of hispanola - wouldn't be surprised to see the center has nudged slightly south of NHC track at 11am.

They have it further N actually..

[Sanibel]

Why do you think Texas? Just wondering...

You misread what I said. I don't think it will go anywhere near Texas.


We on Sanibel, a flat island that sticks out in front of hurricanes on this track in the Gulf, have to start worrying that NHC hasn't changed its direct hit track in over 12 hours. Historic storms have deposited sea bed shell across the whole island in the past before there were so many houses.

That category 1 suggestion is laughable considering what Charley did. And this one is probably half the forward speed.

[NDG]

Does anyone has a graphic of the topografy of Cuba especially how tall are the mountains of the Sierra Maestra in Eastern Cuba?

I have Microsoft Virtual earth which tells me elevation & 3D of terrain as I move the cursor.
Mountains along the Caribbean coast of eastern Cuba are as high as 6,000'

[cycloneye]

[stormy1970al]

I am just assuming this is going to be a wait and see situation. Things have to play out and and when it starts to turn more north I will be a happy camper....Sorry Florida....I am not wishing her on you but I do not want a storm here either.

Does anyone know if and when the recon will get there? I am assuming they are flying into her today.

[edbri871]

NHC 11am track slightly further east....interesting to note that the system is still moving west of north at landfall

A direct hit on Fort Myers, where I live. Well, Given that its still 60 hours away thats probably a good sign since the track is bound to change..... right?

[sphelps8681]

If this could be true, how will this alter current landfall projections?

Maybe a hundred miles further west. But I think Texas is WAY clear on this and follow official weather sites for real life and limb information.

Why do you think Texas? Just wondering...

No, just trying to understand how it all works and learn a little more.

[SouthFloridawx]

Why do you think Texas? Just wondering...

You misread what I said. I don't think it will go anywhere near Texas.

We on Sanibel, a flat island that sticks out in front of hurricanes on this track in the Gulf, have to start worrying that NHC hasn't changed its direct hit track in over 12 hours. Historic storms have deposited sea bed shell across the whole island in the past before there were so many houses.

That category 1 suggestion is laughable considering what Charley did. And this one is probably half the forward speed.

Okay got ya... 11am shows that you are right, you might have to worry a little.

[TCmet]

with all the persistent convection overnight south of hispanola - wouldn't be surprised to see the center has nudged slightly south of NHC track at 11am.

They have it further N actually..

Looks to me to be remaining straight on the 5am track. Only significant change was the right shift late in the fcst period.

[edbri871]

Why do you think Texas? Just wondering...

You misread what I said. I don't think it will go anywhere near Texas.


We on Sanibel, a flat island that sticks out in front of hurricanes on this track in the Gulf, have to start worrying that NHC hasn't changed its direct hit track in over 12 hours. Historic storms have deposited sea bed shell across the whole island in the past before there were so many houses.

That category 1 suggestion is laughable considering what Charley did. And this one is probably half the forward speed.

I agree, The water temps are extremely warm just offshore, not to mention virtually no shear. BTW, I'll probably drive by your house in a few hours on my Way to Captiva Island from Fort Myers

[rockyman]

Climo support:

[sweetpea]

NHC 11am track slightly further east....interesting to note that the system is still moving west of north at landfall

A direct hit on Fort Myers, where I live. Well, Given that its still 60 hours away thats probably a good sign since the track is bound to change..... right?

I am actually moving down there on the 22nd!! Have been keeping a very close eye on this. Whoever is it in its path stay safe!!

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, the NHC position look to be dead on. I can make out the circulation just west of that tiny island in that Bay west of Haiti on visibles, look to be moving 275. (Sorry, don't know Haitian topography.)

[cpdaman]

Now that the apparent LLC is back over water and the mountains of Hispanola are almost behind Fay, I think we could see her really pop in the next few hours. Hurricane strength before hitting Cuba? I doubt it. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see her get to the upper end of TS strength.

how large is this storm anyway, unless she is very small i just don't see her having enough open water to get much done (unless she misses SE cuba by a good margin) there are mountains all around her right now (regardless if she is over water or not right?) so how big is this fay anyway, can we tell?

[Sanibel]

Sanibel going to house preparation for hurricane. Back in a few to see center strengthening over water.

[Emmett_Brown]

With 24 hours over the FL Straights as a hurricane, I would think cat 2+ is very possible. Cat 1 seems a bit low. Of course, this storm has always been slow to organize...