ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[dkommers]

She looks like a slice of pizza right now wth a big meatball. (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg ) Let's see how fast she decides to get her act together as she leaves the coast.

[jaxfladude]

A direct hit on Fort Myers, where I live. Well, Given that its still 60 hours away thats probably a good sign since the track is bound to change..... right?

Hope so, but be prepared for a nasty visitor................

[cpdaman]

With 24 hours over the FL Straights as a hurricane, I would think cat 2+ is very possible. Cat 1 seems a bit low. Of course, this storm has always been slow to organize...

? 24 hours, is this your opinion, or some crazy model

[curtadams]

It's the NAM... utterly worthless!

The NAM is so bullish it's basically a joke for intensity. But I don't recall it being particularly bad for track.

[weatherwoman]

east coast towards the carolinas jb is sticking with his ideas

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing possible shift east - but don't hold me to that.

[greels]

We are still under a tropical storm watch here and it is verry windy........

I cannot believe that our hummingbirds are out and searching for food as I speak.....those little critters are incredible, despite the windy conditions here.....they are even perching for a "rest" on some of our bouganvilla plants off our front porch!

[gatorcane]

Climo support:

But if you look at only August not one system has impacted the West Coast of FL. All have been Southern FL or E coast of FL. I am not saying this will happen but just wanted to point that out. I certainly think peninsula FL is the risk area and have been saying that for several days now...

[Emmett_Brown]

With 24 hours over the FL Straights as a hurricane, I would think cat 2+ is very possible. Cat 1 seems a bit low. Of course, this storm has always been slow to organize...

? 24 hours, is this your opinion, or some crazy model

I was looking at the latest NHC position forecast. Calls for a Cat 1 near the N coast of Cuba 8am Mon, and a Cat 1 nearing the SW FL coast 8am on Tuesday. Perhaps i should have said Straights and SE GOM. Anyway, their forecast calls for a Cat 1 during this time. Seems a little conservative to stay Cat 1 with full day over that warm water.

[Windtalker1]

It's the NAM... utterly worthless!

The NAM is so bullish it's basically a joke for intensity. But I don't recall it being particularly bad for track.

Isn't the NAM good at showing weakness in the ridges????

[Scorpion]

My cat was acting crazy last night. Literally jumping around my room and hitting stuff. Also jumping onto everything. Still acting a little strange this morning lol.

[Blown Away]

A 100 mile shift east would put Fay moving along the Gulfstream and into very warm waters.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_3W.shtml

[gatorcane]

Latest obs along SE FL coast indicate some light east winds have kicked in -- but still would expect to see them in the 10-20mph range if this thing would pass by well to the south.

NAPLES MOSUNNY 85 74 69 NE7 30.04S
W PALM BEACH MOSUNNY 86 74 67 N5 30.04R
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 90 73 57 N8 30.03R HX 98
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 86 73 65 E5 30.04R
OPA LOCKA MOSUNNY 87 76 69 NE7 30.04R HX 97
MIAMI MOSUNNY 86 75 69 VRB5 30.04R HX 95
WEST KENDALL MOSUNNY 85 77 77 E7 30.04R HX 95
HOMESTEAD PTSUNNY 86 77 74 E7 30.04S HX 97

[gatorcane]

Latest obs along SE FL coast indicate some light east winds have kicked in -- but still would expect to see them in the 10-20mph range if this thing would pass by well to the south. As the pressure gradient kicks in between Fay and the Bermuda High, I think they will be on the increase over the weekend...look for that especially by later on Sun.

W PALM BEACH MOSUNNY 86 74 67 N5 30.04R
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 90 73 57 N8 30.03R HX 98
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 86 73 65 E5 30.04R
OPA LOCKA MOSUNNY 87 76 69 NE7 30.04R HX 97
MIAMI MOSUNNY 86 75 69 VRB5 30.04R HX 95
WEST KENDALL MOSUNNY 85 77 77 E7 30.04R HX 95
HOMESTEAD PTSUNNY 86 77 74 E7 30.04S HX 97

[caneman]

Gator,

that simply isn't true. That climo map is august

[jinftl]

Any idea when the Keys might be put under presumably a hurricane watch? I am thinking could happen by tonight...given the time it takes to safely evacuate the Keys.

At this point, both southeast and southwest florida seem prime candidates for a hurricane watch tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

Gator,

that simply isn't true. That climo map is august

ahhh yes but its taking into account tracks well south of the actual current center of Fay which would favor the Western Coast of FL, EGOM, or Northern GOM near the FL panhandle.

do a search within a more realistic 65NM of Fay's current position. The tracks do shift to the east

okay here is the link see for yourself:

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

It wouldn't surprise me if Fay somehow missed Southern FL to the east either

[Ed Mahmoud]

It may be August, but the pattern is more like September.



I seem to recall and unusual late Summer/early Autumn like cold front in 2004 around the time of Charley...

[jaxfladude]

If I could I would have this be a crawl on the bottom of all TV broadcasts, OTA/Cable/Sat(if possible) non stop:
..........The whole state of Florida should closely watch Fay for possible direct or indirect impact..Please watch and/or listen to your local media outlet for the latest info on TS Fay and possible paths the TS may take in the next several days...

[Ed Mahmoud]

If this is something like Charley, a nearly parallel angle to the Florida West Coast means a tiny variation in direction means a big change in final landfall location.