ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[caneman]

Gator,

Love your post but lets try and be a little objective here. SW Florida is West Florida. I'll bet you a nickel it won't hit SE Florida or even the very most Southern tip. It would need to move NW or NNW now to do that. Anywhere from Pensacola to Ft. Myers IMO and prob more Appalach to Ft. Myers

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB still likes East side Florida, maybe to the Carolinas, this morning...

[Sanibel]

The track has been zoned for 18 hours or so. That's a little unusual. But rule of thumb says it is good to be in the crosshairs 3 days out because it will most often change.


Off to gas up car and get bottled water before any mad rush.

[Steve]

>>east coast towards the carolinas jb is sticking with his ideas

Because he stole those ideas from me.

Steve

[cpdaman]

11am disco

19n 73.7

000
WTNT41 KNHC 161507
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS NOW OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THE STORM PRODUCED A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DURING THE NIGHT OVER
THE WATER SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
BURST WAS AT THE FAR END OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT
BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY AROUND 18Z TO
PROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. FAY REMAINS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OR FLORIDA THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ARE FARTHEST TO THE EAST...CALLING FOR
FAY TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE
GFDL IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE GFS...HWRF...FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST
CENTRAL CUBA AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE UKMET AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO
MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THUS...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AFTER 48 HR. EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.

WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON
THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY
FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL
ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 19.0N 73.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.5W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 79.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 22.7N 80.6W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1200Z 26.0N 82.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/1200Z 32.5N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[ericinmia]

Gator,

Love your post but lets try and be a little objective here. SW Florida is West Florida. I'll bet you a nickel it won't hit SE Florida or even the very most Southern tip. It would need to move NW or NNW now to do that. Anywhere from Pensacola to Ft. Myers IMO and prob more Appalach to Ft. Myers

I love how it seems people cheer for their region to get hit and find any information that corrolates.

But what you said is not entirely correct. The GFDL and HRWF right now are cutting up the center, especially more so with the GFDL. Not withholding that they won't change again in the next 6 hours though

[Downdraft]

Forget for now the actual landfall point and forget the forecast track line. If your in the cone get prepared and be ready. Nuff said, end of story!

[cpdaman]

so we got a weakness forecast by most models over EITHER the east GOM or FL (general area) and this is supposed to turn NNW/N within about 36 hours........i hope fay gets burried by cuba

[jinftl]

with the margin of error in 48 or 72 hour tracks....and the risk of not having millions of people be prepared/underprepared. even a west coast of florida landfall (not including a panhandle landfall) could necessitate warnings on the east coast as well.

the nhc says in the 11am discussion all areas of the peninsula have about the same chance of experiencing hurricane force winds....if that is the still the case tomorrow, it is time to take this threat seriously on the east and west coasts.

not -removed- at all....the prospect of dealing with this actually makes me feel sick.

Gator,

Love your post but lets try and be a little subjective here. SW Florida is West Florida. I'll bet you a nickel it won't hit SE Florida or even the very most Southern tip. It would need to move NW or NNW now to do that. Anywhere from Pensacola to Ft. Myers IMO and prob more Appalach to Ft. Myers

[tailgater]

I'm thinking Fay will a bit slower developing and take a path a bit south and west of what most of the models are showing, today and tommorow. I like( agree)with the AEMI solution.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al062008.png

[SouthFLTropics]

A track coming up from the South across Cuba like this reminds me of Irene in 1999. NHC had a very hard time with Irene's forecast and quite frankly missed it significantly. Of course, there were alot of things different with Irene as well, in particular is the fact that when Irene hit it was October.

Side Note: It is interesting to see that JB is sticking to his guns and still calling for a SF east coast and north to the Carolinas track...We shall see if that pans out but it would not be the first time he was wrong if it doesn't...

[Steve H.]

Believe you me, I am not cheering for this to come near me, not after 2004. I was out of power in Palm Bay for 13 days after Frances in 90+ heat, and had my roof torn by Jeanne two weeks later. Not thank you.

[Air Force Met]

But if you look at only August not one system has impacted the West Coast of FL. All have been Southern FL or E coast of FL. I am not saying this will happen but just wanted to point that out. I certainly think peninsula FL is the risk area and have been saying that for several days now...

Not true.

First of all...there have only been 4 storms in Aug w/in 30nm of where Fay is now. ONe of those is Fay and another hit the Panhandle. The other two went into TX.

If you expand that out to 60 miles...there have been 16. 3 went up the east coast of Fl...with one dissipating (of the three) off the east coast...so really only 2. 3 went into the west coast or the panhandle and the rest went into TX, Mex or MS.

[marciacubed]

I'm thinking Fay will a bit slower developing and take a path a bit south and west of what most of the models are showing, today and tommorow. I like( agree)with the AEMI solution.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al062008.png

I was forbidden to see that link. Could you please explain why you think more west?

[sittingduck]

No birds this morning at my house - that is odd - very quiet out there and I am in an older neighborhood with lots of big trees - usually lots of birds. I can't comment on my cats as they are always crazy - lol

location: Venice Florida - about a mile from the coast

[Sanibel]

Before I go for supplies I wanted to mention no one has credited Lushine in spades...


Air Force Met: Good call right across the back of Hispaniola.

[deltadog03]

The ridge is fairly strong to the north of this system still.. NAM looks like it has broken it down way too quickly...

[SouthFLTropics]

Believe you me, I am not cheering for this to come near me, not after 2004. I was out of power in Palm Bay for 13 days after Frances in 90+ heat, and had my roof torn by Jeanne two weeks later. Not thank you.

I'm right there with you Steve...I remember those days with no power and the heat and humidity through the roof. Wasn't fun at all. I know that if my Grandpa was still alive though he would say something like, "we have lived in Florida for 4 generations with no A/C at all...toughen up".

Maybe we are too soft nowdays but I still prefer to have my AC cranked down and be chillin in the house...

SFT

[rockyman]

FYI: 12z GFS is starting now

[cpdaman]

Promets, do you see fay slowing down or accelerating from it's current speed in the next 24-36 hours? thanks for any reply's!