Stephanie wrote:gator - I think that's a pretty big miss and a heck of a right turn. There will need to be something that will have to kick it that way, even if the ridge is breaking down.
Mets??
my impression of the cone is that NHC has a general sense of their average track uncertainties, and then just apply those to their best guess fcst path. I don't think they put too much thought into the actual boundaries of the cone beyond that.
therefore - i wouldn't read too much into the exact boundaries of the cone - just that they are allowing for significant uncertainty in the later periods of the forecast.
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