ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Bocadude85]

wonder what the chances of this falling apart and not really amounting to much of anything?

[Stephanie]

We've seen storms ripped apart only to come together again, though maybe not as strong.

That latest image has all of the convection to the east and southeast. The last satelite loop did look like a WNW direction of movement.

[Dean4Storms]

the center is not exposed

Yes it is.

[Stephanie]

Does anyone else see the LLC near 19.5 74.5?

It shows up well on the Ramsdis floater........

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

Yep, pretty clear to me moving WNW, exposed center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Based on that loop I see 19.4N, 79.8W or very close to that. Once the consolidation begins I wouldn't be surprised if it actually "moves" a little SW of where it appears now. Honestly after three different visibles it is not easy to pinpoint it. When the plane gets in we will know more(DUH!!! ).

It's hard to see in the visibles. The loops have shown two different circulations though in an North/South alignment.

[cycloneye]

Here is a closeup view.As HURAKAN points up,the center is where you see that little white blob,just north of the Penninsula of Haiti.

[tailgater]

Latest Rainbow loop shows feeders developing for the MLC .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[Dean4Storms]

The center is exactly under that burst of convection north of the tip of that peninsula in Haiti.

The LLC is NW of that, you can clearly see the wrapping in of low level clouds and the convection to its west is spiraling inward toward it. It is near 19.5 74.7


Watch the floater here...... (It is so plain my half blind grandma can see.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Using the GOES East 1 km Visible Weather Satellite Picture is really easy to see the circulation. I don't know why there is a debate about it.

[Noles2006]

Dean - before you make that your final answer... read what Derek said on page 257 regarding it possibly being a transient feature...

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is hard to tell where the exact center is, but looking at several satellite loops, it seems like the current motion would take the storm along the extreme southeastern coast of Cuba...probably staying far enough offshore to still be able to get its act together later today:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

NHC track still looks pretty good, IMO.

[Blown Away]

I like Accuweather and Joe B, there informative and entertaining, but their tropics page has 2 maps with the first moving Fay up the W side of FL into the Panhandle and the other pointing up the E coast of FL. Weather info should not be that confusing, IMO.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-hea ... 8-16_08:41

[Dean4Storms]

Dean - before you make that your final answer... read what Derek said on page 257 regarding it possibly being a transient feature...

I saw what Derek said. But it is a clear LLC and I know a LLC on Sat imagery when I see one. It is very simple to see the Low level flow going into it and the banding just to its west fedding into it as I type.

[Brent]

the center is not exposed

Yes it is.

Agreed and the storm looks downright awful right now.

[Dean4Storms]

That ball of convection. If you look you'll see a SW to NE line of thin convection moving swing East but individually moving NE to wrap around the center to the NW of that ball someone pointed out. Any convection to the west of a LLC would be swinging in a band to the South.

She does appear to be moving almost due west.

[wxman57]

Sure looks like the center is exposed to me, near 19.4N/75.1W. Observations along the southern coast of Cuba seem to confirm the LLC there. Clear rotation on satellite. If this is the case, then we likely have TD Fay now, unless there's a small pocket of TS force winds in that squalls south of the Haitian peninsula.

[cycloneye]

Latest pic at 1:02 PM:

[jlauderdal]

I like Accuweather and Joe B, there informative and entertaining, but their tropics page has 2 maps with the first moving Fay up the W side of FL into the Panhandle and the other pointing up the E coast of FL. Weather info should not be that confusing, IMO.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-hea ... 8-16_08:41

its called ensuring you will be right...

[Aric Dunn]

Sure looks like the center is exposed to me, near 19.5N/75W. Observations along the southern coast of Cuba seem to confirm the LLC there. If this is the case, then we likely have TD Fay now, unless there's a small pocket of TS force winds in that squalls south of the Haitian peninsula.

thats nearly exactly what i was about to post

[tailgater]

The center is exactly under that burst of convection north of the tip of that peninsula in Haiti.

The LLC is NW of that, you can clearly see the wrapping in of low level clouds and the convection to its west is spiraling inward toward it. It is near 19.5 74.7


Watch the floater here...... (It is so plain my half blind grandma can see.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Check your URL

[Dean4Storms]

Sure looks like the center is exposed to me, near 19.4N/75.1W. Observations along the southern coast of Cuba seem to confirm the LLC there. Clear rotation on satellite. If this is the case, then we likely have TD Fay now, unless there's a small pocket of TS force winds in that squalls south of the Haitian peninsula.

Thank you for the clarity wxman57.