ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Noles2006]

19.4/75.0 is what I got...

moving nearly due west...

[vbhoutex]

That is 3(make that 4) for the almost exact same exposed location. It sure seems pretty obvious to me. I guess that is why I posted it without the loop link.

Anyone that is thinking otherwise please post your reasoning and any supportive data you may have. I am always open to new information!!!

[Dean4Storms]

Sure looks like the center is exposed to me, near 19.5N/75W. Observations along the southern coast of Cuba seem to confirm the LLC there. If this is the case, then we likely have TD Fay now, unless there's a small pocket of TS force winds in that squalls south of the Haitian peninsula.

thats nearly exactly what i was about to post

Pretty close Aric just maybe a bit further west, you see that cloud band SW to NE just to the west of that circle? That is a feeder band going into it to the WNW of your circle.

[hurricanefloyd5]

FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL
ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.


This is what's in the 11am. discuss. towards the end and if this happen this COULD be a hugh problem for FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

The debate about where the center is will be over in less than a half an hour when recon arrives.

[twister]

It does not look too healthy atm. Keeping the eyes peeled, though.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... t_enhanced

[Derek Ortt]

at about 19.2N and 74.8W... right where the tight spiral is

[Aric Dunn]

Sure looks like the center is exposed to me, near 19.5N/75W. Observations along the southern coast of Cuba seem to confirm the LLC there. If this is the case, then we likely have TD Fay now, unless there's a small pocket of TS force winds in that squalls south of the Haitian peninsula.

thats nearly exactly what i was about to post

Pretty close Aric just maybe a bit further west, you see that cloud band SW to NE just to the west of that circle? That is a feeder band going into it to the WNW of your circle.

posted the wrong update

[Dean4Storms]

The center is exactly under that burst of convection north of the tip of that peninsula in Haiti.

The LLC is NW of that, you can clearly see the wrapping in of low level clouds and the convection to its west is spiraling inward toward it. It is near 19.5 74.7


Watch the floater here...... (It is so plain my half blind grandma can see.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Check your URL

ooppss, Sorry, here ya go......


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

[JonathanBelles]

Governor Charlie Crist is doing a live press conference now!!

[perk]

That is 3(make that 4) for the almost exact same exposed location. It sure seems pretty obvious to me. I guess that is why I posted it without the loop link.

Anyone that is thinking otherwise please post your reasoning and any supportive data you may have. I am always open to new information!!!

I can't see how anyone can produce any supportive data that can argue that the center is not exposed. It's definitely exposed.

[tailgater]

That is 3(make that 4) for the almost exact same exposed location. It sure seems pretty obvious to me. I guess that is why I posted it without the loop link.

Anyone that is thinking otherwise please post your reasoning and any supportive data you may have. I am always open to new information!!!

I'm not saying it's not the LLC but it's possible that it's only a vortex rotating around a broader center I'll have to see more of a loop to be sure.

[wxman57]

If Fay has weakened to a TD this afternoon, even if still may have a few pockets of TS winds well SE of the center, then the chances of it becoming a hurricane before reaching Cuba are very low. And the chances of its circulation falling apart over Cuba are increasing. The threat to Florida may be decreasing significantly.

[Dean4Storms]

Pretty close Aric just maybe a bit further west, you see that cloud band SW to NE just to the west of that circle? That is a feeder band going into it to the WNW of your circle.[/quote]

[/quote]


Close, take that blue circle north a tad and you are on it.

[jaxfladude]

Governor Charlie Crist is doing a live press conference now!!

Well that almost dooms Florida, how bad or little is the only question....Fay is Florida bound!

or or even

[JonathanBelles]

The State EMC has been activated to level 1. Storm warnings may be issued tonight or tomorrow. Both said by FL Governor.

[Derek Ortt]

take that blue circle south a tad and you have the center. it is quite clear on high res visible data

[wxman57]

That is 3(make that 4) for the almost exact same exposed location. It sure seems pretty obvious to me. I guess that is why I posted it without the loop link.

Anyone that is thinking otherwise please post your reasoning and any supportive data you may have. I am always open to new information!!!

I'm not saying it's not the LLC but it's possible that it's only a vortex rotating around a broader center I'll have to see more of a loop to be sure.

You're correct, tailgater. Sometimes weak tropical storms with broad centers can have multiple vortices rotating around. I can't see any evidence of another center to the southeast, though. Even if there was another center, the fact that it has multiple vortices rotating around (and I only see one center) would indicate a weaker storm.

[mavidal@mac.com]

Howdy all:

New to this board, but not storms. I am in Miami, have been here since 59 so I have been through a few storms (especially the eyewall adventure with Andrew), and have not seen any songbirds (my barometer) since yesterday am. Still quiet this morning. This has been a consistent pattern that I have noticed with every approaching hurricane, not tropical storms. My gut is telling me that Fay is headed this way and will be a hurricane when it gets here.

BTW, what I have never figured out is why doves and pigeons don't leave?

MV

[ekal]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I like what I see this afternoon, although preparedness is still important for everyone within the forecast cone (as always).

As many have noted today, the LLC and MLC of Fay appear to have temporarily decoupled due to the passage of the system over the extremely mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. I would be surprised to see any significant intensification today, and I expect that it will take at least 18 hours for Fay to begin to stack again, now that it is moving over water. Note, however, that the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, home to mountains well over 8,000 feet, will severely impede the southern inflow of this system, further slowing the intensification process.

Once the system begins to clear Haiti and approach Cuba, I believe a small window for modest intensification will exist. However, I do not see Fay becoming a hurricane as it approaches Cuba. The system has been too disrupted and will still be subject to land interaction, particularly as it approaches more mountainous terrain in the southeastern tip of Cuba (6,000+ feet). IMHO, no more than 50 knots at landfall in Central Cuba (still a major disruption, however). There, a few mountain peaks of 3500+ feet exist -- enough to cause some weakening and disruption, although transit time over this area is expected to be brief.

If Fay does indeed follow the forecast track, it then has, at best, 24 good hours over the warm waters of the Florida Straits after emerging Central Cuba. I do not see this being enough time for strengthening to hurricane status, although it cannot be ruled out. I am going to stick adamantly to my expectation yesterday that this storm will be no more than 45-60 knots for SW Florida.

Admittably, if Fay gets out over the warm Gulf waters and heads farther north than, say, Fort Myers, all bets are off.