ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

If it misses Florida (and Bahamas and Bermuda), that would be the best news..

I would LOVE to see her track right along the east edge of the gulf stream and out to sea...

If there is anything important you guys hear would you let us know?

Does channel 7 ever say anything important? Like now a full 72-96 hours before anything - hourly storm coverage. Way to whip us into a frenzy!

[GreenSky]

Here's a satellite with surface obs plotted. As you can see, not exactly a ferocious wind field around the center. Just 15-20 kts.

Wxman, don't you think Fay will be downgraded to a depression or maybe an open wave....it looks like the LLC has vanished!

Maybe the DR really did kill Fay.

[deltadog03]

Thanks WXMAN...Well, that IS where the 2pm adv.. position is...So, nhc must be thinking the same. Either way, I posted the steering map for the associated strength of fay, this too me still says she should stay generally around 275 degrees for the movement. There is a weakness over the florida straits, but this is not strong enough to feel that right now.

[TampaFl]

Map curtesy of Boatusa.com:

[Extremeweatherguy]

New convection appears to be popping on the SE side of the LLC...

[shortwave]

Fay is a clam, opens in water, closes over land. Maybe because there hasn't consistently been a narrow focus of surface convergence, save for the mid levels.

As always things are changing with this and every system.

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

also appears to be an eddy just NW of NW tip of haiti

[CrazyC83]

It's not a depression as the flight supports 35 kt. It is either a tropical storm or (less likely) an open wave.

[Blown Away]

New GFDL takes the center just east of Miami now. Trend east continues.

I always had my doubts that the LLC could survive a trip over Hispanola and E Cuba, but if it emerges and moves up on the NE side of Cuba and there is plenty alot of warm waters to spin up pretty quick. This was the only scenerio I was worried about.

[wxman57]

Map curtesy of Boatusa.com:

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/upload/6/windfield.gif

Take a look at the actual surface plot I posted and you'll see those forecast winds are about 20-25 kts too high.

[Noles2006]

New GFDL takes the center just east of Miami now. Trend east continues.

I always had my doubts that the LLC could survive a trip over Hispanola and E Cuba, but if it emerges and moves up on the NE side of Cuba and there is plenty alot of warm waters to spin up pretty quick. This was the only scenerio I was worried about.

Fay would have to start the turn almost immediately to move over NE Cuba...

[Derek Ortt]

yet HWRF shifted west of the previous run

[wxman57]

It's not a depression as the flight supports 35 kt. It is either a tropical storm or (less likely) an open wave.

Hang on there, the plane was finding 40-50 kt winds at flight level the other day but couldn't find an LLC. Don't assume those FL winds are translating to the surface.

[cpdaman]

that depends on wether recon verify's the 19.2 74.8 position ...i think it may be further east

[wxman57]

yet HWRF shifted west of the previous run

I think Naomi needs to do more tweaking to HWRF.

[CrazyC83]

It's not a depression as the flight supports 35 kt. It is either a tropical storm or (less likely) an open wave.

Hang on there, the plane was finding 40-50 kt winds at flight level the other day but couldn't find an LLC. Don't assume those FL winds are translating to the surface.

That is because the system was a 40-45 kt tropical wave then.

[Derek Ortt]

and the GFDL assumes we already have a hurricane

not buying that east shift

[Extremeweatherguy]

that depends on wether recon verify's the 19.2 74.8 position ...i think it may be further east

You may be right. According to the recon thread, there was a pressure of 1006mb found at 19.2N 72.6W.

[Emmett_Brown]

Regarding sattelite appearence, here is what i am seeing:

- Land clearly did a number on Fay
- However, banding features that have been absent are beginning to appear in the Bahamas, and to the SW in the Carribean near Jamaica.
- Some bursting is ocurring near the difuse center
- Outflow is still excellent in all directions
- Fay is heading just N of due W, which may keep her S of Cuba for a bit tonight and over hot water
- Dry air is not a problem

Overall, more pros than cons for strengthening. There is still a lot of time. Even if she is steady state and does not strengthen this afternoon, and starts to strengthen tonight, there is all day tomorrow for her to strengthen. Assuming she stays on track over water, it is not unreasonable for Fay to reach miminum Cat 1 hurricane strength by the end of the day tomorrow before landfalling in Cuba.

In short, i dont expect Fay to strengthen until tonight. Too many mountains around. But I dont think she will fall apart either.