ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Steve]

>>With this shallow/unorganized a system one living here in the Panhandle can't help but grow concerned that Fay tracks further west with a more gradual turn into the weakness.

I don't know. I wouldn't let my guard down, which you obviously aren't going to do. I checked out some of the upper charts, but the Water Vapor is going to be the live action satellite that eventually tells the story. Link to 1km Continental shot:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

If it's going North or East of the forecasted track, I think it would be in the wake of the Upper Low splitting off SSW of Isle of Youth. Also, there is the +/- stationary front with some push out of the NNW near the confluence of the rivers bordering IL/MO/TN/AR/KY. Behind that trough, there is another push out of Canada heading toward Upstate NY which would/should usher in either the reinforcing block or second tug. Not saying that's going to verify, but the Gulf flow is already out of the SW - recent upper air data here:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8wxc.GIF

& would seem to show an alley out within 36 hours or so. If the trough lifts out and the zonal flow into the SE Trough were to lift up or flatten, with the upper high over Mexico sliding west or northwest, you guys have a better shot.

- not the only possibilities, just some of the players on the field and potentially some of their influence

Steve

[Noles2006]

Does anyone think that this may turn out to be a storm like Ernesto? Miami media hyped it up so much, and we got nothing more than a rain storm, as it couldnt get uts act together. Im not saying to back down and forget about Fay, but anyone think its a possibility?

P.S.: Here in Miami my local publix is packed, and almost out of water already.

Would not surprise me... I actually predicted it wouldn't get past 55kts in the prediction thread... even when some models (I'm talking to you, GFDL, "Mr. 119KTS in Apalachee Bay") were trying to scare us...

[funster]

WXMAN57, thanks for the work on the model graphic- good job.

His model graph is cool. However, he'll probably be eating crow soon on his intensity forecast. He says no more than 50kt before Cuba landfall with all that hot water. Not buying it

[carversteve]

Don't want to jinx it but the situation is looking a lot better from what the consensus was yesterday. A more eastern track into the peninsula means a much weaker storm with beneficial rains and the northern Gulf coast is spared from a big hurricane. Everybody west of Pensacola can breathe a sigh of relief now.

Do you have anything to back up such a statement??

[Sanibel]

Heads up. I'm seeing organization that suggests looking again at GFDL. That surface spiral that has been noted as the center may not be and it looks like a better center is coming together ala GFDL. It should be clearer as the center thickens. Could be getting more of Cuba here. Not sure.

[Emmett_Brown]

I see a track currently on NHC trop points headed for a strengthening to allow it to survive a clip of Cabo Cruz, Cuba near Pilon and onto the hottest SST's in the Caribbean.

Actually, I am seeing the same thing. Granted, I would be more worried if it were going gangbusters right now, but Monday/Tuesday is still a while off. If it regroups tonight, I think we may still see a potentially dangerous storm. I think it may actually stay a little left of the NHC track, and stay in the water tonight and tomorrow morning.

A couple more reds returning...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is of no surprize to me that DR/Hati torn the "innercore"/heart out of Fay. But if it can make it south of that "piece" of land that sticks out in remerge into the waters south of cuba with a west to west-northwest track below 285 degree's, it could have about 36 hours over water. In which are really hot. Will it get its act together; maybe a little. But I don't expect a hurricane. It is not impossible. Now the gulf is a whole different animal.

[cycloneye]

Cuban radar:

[Lowpressure]

WXMAN57, thanks for the work on the model graphic- good job.

His model graph is cool. However, he'll probably be eating crow soon on his intensity forecast. He says no more than 50kt before Cuba landfall with all that hot water. Not buying it

I would argue that 50kts is a solid estimate before Cuban landfall. It is not organized well at all at the surface yet.

[Jason_B]

Don't want to jinx it but the situation is looking a lot better from what the consensus was yesterday. A more eastern track into the peninsula means a much weaker storm with beneficial rains and the northern Gulf coast is spared from a big hurricane. Everybody west of Pensacola can breathe a sigh of relief now.

Do you have anything to back up such a statement??

Models continue to shift east, and the trough is digging down into the Gulf...this has Tampa and points southward written all over it. And with it dealing with so much land I don't see it reaching a major hurricane before hitting Florida, probably a storm very similar to Dolly.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

She's filling in as forcasted....

[Lowpressure]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

She's filling in as forcasted....

Upper pattern is excellent- great outflow- almost channeled at times.

[jinftl]

all in all the models are actually quite clustered in my opinion....there looks to be no more than 200 miles spread between the models going out 72 hours....fay, whatever she will be, clearly has florida in her sights.

I plotted the 18Z models, minus the garbage BAM, NAM, and some experimental NOGAPS models.

GFDL is definitely out on its own. The two green tracks across the eastern FL peninsula are 18Z variations of the blue 12Z GFDL track over Miami.

[Vortex]

the beginning stages of re-intensification are underway..Latest Hi-Res imagery indicated convection firing on the east side if the circulation center. In addition, the center has tightened up based on radar..If the system can manage to stay just offshore cuba then intensification overnight is a good bet..

[funster]

WXMAN57, thanks for the work on the model graphic- good job.

His model graph is cool. However, he'll probably be eating crow soon on his intensity forecast. He says no more than 50kt before Cuba landfall with all that hot water. Not buying it

I would argue that 50kts is a solid estimate before Cuban landfall. It is not organized well at all at the surface yet.

Yup, I'm probably going to wrong and wxman57 will be right. No surprise there at all I still think Fay's unhindered access to hurricane fuel could make 50kts a little low though - even though Fay is a little sloppily put together right now.

[Steve]

Dean,

I saw you mentioned NOGAPS and UKMET. You can see what the NOGAPS is doing. Even though this is from the 00z run, I think it paints a good interpretation of how Fay could get to you guys. I'm not saying I agree with it, I don't at this point, but if you look at the streamlines at different heights, it shows what the process would be to lead it to NW FL.

850:
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... pstriso850

700:
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... pstriso700

500:
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... pstriso500

200:
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... pstriso200

I'm just going to say that if on the off chance that if the 00z NOGAPS wasn't a left outlier and I think it is, it would appear the upper support would be there for a fairly strong system.

Steve

[Sanibel]

I think it's slightly right ala GFDL.

[marciacubed]

Which model over the years as been consistently on target?

[Sanibel]

Which model over the years as been consistently on target?

I combine GFDL with real time observations.

[Vortex]

euro, gfdl