ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[DESTRUCTION5]

euro, gfdl

I aree but don't tell ortt...LOL

[wxman57]

I see another vortex moving westward at about 15 kts near 19.3N/75.6W. It'll probably dissipate like the last one did. That's not a sign of a strengthening TS, though squalls are a bit heavier over SW Haiti.

[NDG]

Starting to look better, with deep convection to the immediate S of the LLC.

[GreenSky]

I see another vortex moving westward at about 15 kts near 19.3N/75.6W. It'll probably dissipate like the last one did. That's not a sign of a strengthening TS, though squalls are a bit heavier over SW Haiti.

Would you say Fay is weakening right now?

[Ivanhater]

I wish this thing would hurry up and develop, I dont like it continuing west..I guess like the military says..hurry up and wait

[jinftl]

Fay could pass over water that approaches 90 degrees in spots if she stays clear of land for a while...and this is deep warm water (2nd map is depth of 26C isotherm)...high octane fuel!

[cycloneye]

The latest at 3:45 PM EDT:

[PTPatrick]

I dont remember exactly but wasnt Charley's turn north do to an unusually low trough for august? Typically I would say this has Northern Gulf written all of it, this time of year. But climatology isnt everything. Its 50 degrees today in Denver and the normal high is 88. Talk about your unseasonable troughs. Our trough is forecast to sit over the plains until Tuesday though I dont think that is the one. In any case, this will be an interesting one to track. Am starting to wonder if the center will refrom a little south, maybe even SW of the SW tip of the DR. Remains to be seen but I think at the very least if it did that would tend to help the East Coasters and Miami, and possibly swing some models back West again.

[GreenSky]

I wish this thing would hurry up and develop, I dont like it continuing west..I guess like the military says..hurry up and wait

The continued westward movement may mean trouble for the panhandle.

Since Fay looks pretty weak and pathetic right now, she will probably keep moving more westerly....who knows, if this "northwest" turn gets more delayed, maybe Mobile to Pensacola might have to deal with her in the future.

[Weatherboy1]

I don't necessarily see the GFDL as completely out on its own. The euro seems to be in the same ballpark right? And also the CMC, though that's clearly not a model with a fantastic track record. Moreover, isn't the trend what's important? It seems to me the trend for all of the guidance has been to shift more eastward today. I don't think in any scenario that I'll get a direct hit here in eastern Palm Beach County. But it seems to me the likelihood of a landfall in SW FL (vs. the Big bend or panhandle) has gone up quite a bit.

[Vortex]

Starting to look better, with deep convection to the immediate S of the LLC.

What an impressive upper-air pattern.

[marciacubed]

I didn't see the euro in wxman57 's graph. If the gfdl has been the most consistent why is everyone disregarding it?

[wxman57]

I see another vortex moving westward at about 15 kts near 19.3N/75.6W. It'll probably dissipate like the last one did. That's not a sign of a strengthening TS, though squalls are a bit heavier over SW Haiti.

Would you say Fay is weakening right now?

No, there's more convection than 2 hours ago. But if you look at a plot of FL winds around the center, I see nothing over 20 kts within 60 miles of the center. It has some organizing to do.

[ronjon]

Which model over the years as been consistently on target?

The FSU Superensemble which is not available in the public domain. In general, no one model is correct - that's why a consensus of all available tracks is usually the best approach.

[Ivanhater]

I wish this thing would hurry up and develop, I dont like it continuing west..I guess like the military says..hurry up and wait

The continued westward movement may mean trouble for the panhandle.

Since Fay looks pretty weak and pathetic right now, she will probably keep moving more westerly....who knows, if this "northwest" turn gets more delayed, maybe Mobile to Pensacola might have to deal with her in the future.

Certainly possible with the delay in develoment, but I still think the best chance is the big bend..this one has very high uncertainty right now..guess it makes it a bit more fun tho(guessing the track wise)

[gatorcane]

I see another vortex moving westward at about 15 kts near 19.3N/75.6W. It'll probably dissipate like the last one did. That's not a sign of a strengthening TS, though squalls are a bit heavier over SW Haiti.

Would you say Fay is weakening right now?

No, there's more convection than 2 hours ago. But if you look at a plot of FL winds around the center, I see nothing over 20 kts within 60 miles of the center. It has some organizing to do.

It does have some organizing WxMan but its about ready to really crank up in my opinion. Warm SSTs, good outflow, lots of moisture and a good amount of time over the water tracking WNW......

models starting to go more with CLIMO on Southern FL particularly the eastern half.....

[Sanibel]

I think Fay is currently showing signs of being slightly right ala GFDL. This could get more of Cuba (weaker).

[Blown Away]

Can you imagine with the upper air pattern what Fay would have been if she had moved N of these islands.

[wxman57]

I didn't see the euro in wxman57 's graph. If the gfdl has been the most consistent why is everyone dis regarding it?

The Euro doesn't publish a TC track, at least nothing freely-available. But it has been jumping all over the place the past few days, same as the GFDL. Today's 12Z takes it into SW Florida.

[jinftl]

all said, considering she traversed all of hispaniola with its mountains, she managed to stay alive and make it back into water (not a small feat)....perhaps the speed at which she was moving helped. but no doubt, fay has had a rough 24 hours....now we wait and see if she can dust herself off and ramp up

I see another vortex moving westward at about 15 kts near 19.3N/75.6W. It'll probably dissipate like the last one did. That's not a sign of a strengthening TS, though squalls are a bit heavier over SW Haiti.

Would you say Fay is weakening right now?

No, there's more convection than 2 hours ago. But if you look at a plot of FL winds around the center, I see nothing over 20 kts within 60 miles of the center. It has some organizing to do.