ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

Moving north of due west according to the first 2 fixes from recon.

[PTPatrick]

If you look at 18z nam so far vs 12z and compare 18z Monday position, the 18z would have it almost 100 miles south of central cuba, as opposed to 12 z position emerging offnorth cuba coast....could Nam be falling in line finally?

[Jason_B]

I wish this thing would hurry up and develop, I dont like it continuing west..I guess like the military says..hurry up and wait

The continued westward movement may mean trouble for the panhandle.

Since Fay looks pretty weak and pathetic right now, she will probably keep moving more westerly....who knows, if this "northwest" turn gets more delayed, maybe Mobile to Pensacola might have to deal with her in the future.

I don't see any reason why Pensacola/Mobile need to be worried about this one, models continue to trend eastward...obviously a pretty decent trough is coming down to sweep this NE before it gets that far north, same thing we saw with Charley.

[MWatkins]

And pressure is down to 1006mb...down 2 mb from the last fix.

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

Moving north of due west according to the first 2 fixes from recon.

Dropped 2 MB...

[Noles2006]

I think Fay is currently showing signs of being slightly right ala GFDL. This could get more of Cuba (weaker).

You're the only one seeing this at the moment... props to you if you're correct.

[TCmet]

I see another vortex moving westward at about 15 kts near 19.3N/75.6W. It'll probably dissipate like the last one did. That's not a sign of a strengthening TS, though squalls are a bit heavier over SW Haiti.

My best interpretation of the previous (first) recon center fix HDOBs was that there are multiple centers (at around 1006mb), with none dominant right now. We'll need to see some more organization before intensification - perhaps the new convection over SW Haiti will help one of the centers take hold.

[gatorcane]

ramping up and models trending E. This was not surprise to me....The mountains of Eastern Cuba should do an number though on this, then the FL straits will be interesting.

Ernesto de ja vu?...kept meantioning Ernesto several time during the past week....

[Aric Dunn]

amazing what happens with the southerly inflow is no longer inhidited by the peaks on that penisula.. once it opened up convection has really started there

[ronjon]

I didn't see the euro in wxman57 's graph. If the gfdl has been the most consistent why is everyone dis regarding it?

The Euro doesn't publish a TC track, at least nothing freely-available. But it has been jumping all over the place the past few days, same as the GFDL. Today's 12Z takes it into SW Florida.

wxman57, you must have the high resolution version. Can't tell from the low resolution 72-240 hr european centre site.

[Agua]

Which model over the years as been consistently on target?

There is no magic bullet. The idea is to look at all of them and try to discern what the particular model is doing and why - how far do the features operating within the model's environment stray from what is actually happening - what features is the model working with going forward and how likely is it to occur?

[Steve]

As per models continuing to trend eastward and helping my guesscast, not necessarily per the 18z early cycle track guidance.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Not saying I agree or am putting stock into this, just throwing it out there.

Steve

[TCmet]

I see another vortex moving westward at about 15 kts near 19.3N/75.6W. It'll probably dissipate like the last one did. That's not a sign of a strengthening TS, though squalls are a bit heavier over SW Haiti.

My best interpretation of the last (only) recon center fix HDOBs was that there are multiple centers (at around 1006mb), with none dominant right now. We'll need to see some more organization before intensification - perhaps the new convection over SW Haiti will help one of the centers take hold.

Most recent center fix a few min ago was a lot cleaner - but center is still diffuse. No reason for a downgrade to TD based on most recent pass. FL and SFMR still around 40kts.

[marciacubed]

A drop of 2mb correlates to an increase of what intensity in mph because I don't understand knots ?

[PTPatrick]

I respectfully disagree Gatorcane...If anything looks to pass south of the eastern Cuba mountains and head more over the flatter central or easter cuba...I actually could see it going between Cuba and the Isle of Youth which is pretty far west. cuba would give a nice punch if it passed over the western end, but not knock her down in that case

[jinftl]

any thoughts on 5pm update track....similar to 11am update or enough of a shift to put a new area in the cone and take some area out?

[NDG]

Still looks as if the LLC is still a little west of the MLC.

[Blown Away]

If you had to draw a path for a storm to be destroyed by land it would not be much different than the path Fay is taking. East to west through PR and Hispanola and IMO looks to be moving down the spine of Cuba, and Cuba is only about 60 miles wide from N/S.

[TCmet]

any thoughts on 5pm update track....similar to 11am update or enough of a shift to put a new area in the cone and take some area out?

GFDL should be discounted due to poor initialization (as Derek said), so if anything, maybe a nudge back left (west).

[Wthrman13]

A drop of 2mb correlates to an increase of what intensity in mph because I don't understand knots ?

1 kt = 1.15 mph

A 2 mb drop in this case is not likely to have a measurable impact on the wind field. It will take a while for the system to "close ranks" and re-organize.