ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[ronjon]

Yeah, that's what I see. Hopefully for those in the coastal and floodprone areas, Fay only hits that area - assuming the current forecast would verify which we all know it won't exactly - as a tropical storm. That would be a really tough track for a major - one which potentially impacts several million people.

Yeah, steve, and that track pushing up Tampa Bay would lead to severe tidal flooding in downtown Tampa if it were a major - especially if the center were slightly west. Most people don't realize how vulnerable Tampa is to storm surge - much of the downtown area is only 5-10 ft above sea level.

[MusicCityMan]

Tampa's going to get lots of rain at least.. How high would surge be for a 1 or 2?..

[PTPatrick]

Curious as how the 5 pm postion is so far north. I guess recon still sees a center there. The real action and spin seems to be mor around 18N not 19.3 north. I cant find a good center on Vis, but IR would look like there is a new low in the ball of convection SW of the tip of HAITI. IF, and IF this were to happen...NHC wouldnt even been in their cone a by late tonight.

[TCmet]

so is the 5pm track basically the same as the 11am? I'm still convinced the GFDL is a possibility

very slight west/south shift.

[ronjon]

fact789, at least you'd be on the weaker side of the storm with winds blowing offshore the GOM.

[Stratusxpeye]

Image of the Tampa-St. Pete Metro. The Blue line is the 5pm forecast track. The pin is where I am.

I am located about 1.3 miles east of that line just north of down town tampa. But Tampa has s bubble around it so I am not agreeing on that track this far out yet.

[Air Force Met]

If you had to draw a path for a storm to be destroyed by land it would not be much different than the path Fay is taking. East to west through PR and Hispanola and IMO looks to be moving down the spine of Cuba, and Cuba is only about 60 miles wide from N/S.

Dude...not batting a .1000 there with the placement of your LLC's...current movements...etc...Fay still moving west...not going down the spine...

Think I would take a break if I were you.

[ronjon]

To all you posters jumping on the GFDL and Euro, looks like the NHC didn't put much stock in those runs today. Perhaps we'll know why in the 5 PM discussion.

[PTPatrick]

OK...nevermind...I think I see the 19 N center now on Visible. Its just that IR has all the convection aroung 18. She certainly is putting on her party dress yet.

[capepoint]

Don't forget the hurricane shield that is over Tampa, no science I'm just playing the odds a hurricane will not end up there.

Well Heck, Tampa should be fine then. I Didn't know that they had one of those there. lol

[Steve]

>>Tampa's going to get lots of rain at least.. How high would surge be for a 1 or 2?..

I never updated all my links on this pc, but if the elect to run the SLOSH Model for the threat, you should be able to find it on one of the NOAA sites. It's one of the coolest hurricane tools there is and wish they'd dump data into it for every storm.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

If you had to draw a path for a storm to be destroyed by land it would not be much different than the path Fay is taking. East to west through PR and Hispanola and IMO looks to be moving down the spine of Cuba, and Cuba is only about 60 miles wide from N/S.

Dude...not batting a .1000 there with the placement of your LLC's...current movements...etc...Fay still moving west...not going down the spine...

Think I would take a break if I were you.

Lol, I know Ive had to take quite a few

[caneman]

Ronjon,

How ya doing bud? Don't know if you remeber but with Jeanne she flooded downtown Tampa and that was what 70 mph with it moving away. Worse case scenario is Pinellas and the Bay just on the right hand side of the storm

[Sanibel]

I think we can discount a direct GFDL track at this point. GFDL can be on drugs some times. Perhaps it is better with higher tops and hurricanes.


Going to move some heavy planters a little earlier than expected with that 5pm track.

[capepoint]

To all you posters jumping on the GFDL and Euro, looks like the NHC didn't put much stock in those runs today. Perhaps we'll know why in the 5 PM discussion.

Not jumping on...just didnt jump on the westward swing last night. mods always go back and forth until they get a feel for the storm, as it were. I agree the 5PM dis will be interesting.

[jlauderdal]

Fla. gov. declares emergency as storm approachesPublished - Aug 16 2008 03:57PM EDT |

AP
Florida's governor has declared a state of emergency for the state due to the threat of Tropical Storm Fay.

Gov. Charlie Crist says in the order that the storm threatens the state with a "major disaster."

Forecasters warned that Fay could bring hurricane-force winds to the Florida Keys as soon as Monday.


Forecasters said Saturday that the storm could hit as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, with winds perhaps reaching more than 100 mph. But forecasters stressed it was too early to tell how intense the storm would become.

I really didn't know where to put this, but it is an unusually early STate of Emergency.

no its not early, its typical practice to put activate govt resources, they better get a move on in the keys if they think its coming that direction as a 2

[PTPatrick]

I just read 5pm disc...its not particularly interesting. I think some of it was copy and pasted from 11

[caneman]

To all you posters jumping on the GFDL and Euro, looks like the NHC didn't put much stock in those runs today. Perhaps we'll know why in the 5 PM discussion.

Exacly GfDL and Euro have been all over the board. I think the NOGAPS and CMC have been more consistent.

[abajan]

Don't forget the hurricane shield that is over Tampa, no science I'm just playing the odds a hurricane will not end up there.

Something like a saying folks here have come to believe: "No hurricanes will hit Barbados because God is a Bajan". (Since Barbados hasn't been badly impacted by a hurricane since Janet hit us 53 years ago, people have grown to believe this.) These kinds of beliefs can be dangerous.

[JonathanBelles]

The Tampa Bay *Bubble* needs to be unbelieved!