ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Steve]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH
AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN
AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAVE BEEN JOINED BY
THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THESE
MODELS CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE GFS...HWRF...
GFDN...FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS
FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE
BOTH SHIFTED EAST OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CALLING FOR A MOTION TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTER THE 48 HR POINT. EVERYONE IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST
LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.

[CrazyC83]

VDM in - it has strengthened to at least 45 kt (FL winds of 57 kt reported, supports 46 kt at 850mb and 51 kt at 700mb depending on level at the time)

[caneman]

Just bcause Tampa hasn't been hit by a major in a while means nothing. Look back in history and it got hit plenty. Hurricanes it seems tend to go in cycles in terms of areas that get hit and those that don't. Tampa coupld be entering a decade or two of weather pattersn that would favor hits. I've been saying since summer started that this weather pattern we've been in seemed to be conducive for us to get hit. We'll see.

[gatorcane]

i think this is a key statement from the NHC discussion for Floridians -- CAT 1 winds are no picnic either.

EVERYONE IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST
LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.

[Bocadude85]

why does the 5pm disc say the track was shifted eastward... looks like it shifted west to me

[CrazyC83]

Looking at data, an update or special advisory may be coming for the intensity change.

[KWT]

The simple fact is a 10 degree in track shift west and this landfalls much further north and get much longer over water.

This will be a hard one to call, it doesn't look great at the moment but recon has found winds that support 45-50kts and so if it can get 24hrs over water it could ramp up pretty quickly IMO.

[johngaltfla]

5 Pm track from NHC shows landfall near Venice FL with Fay moving north right up Tampa Bay.

Oh gee, that's good news (not).

I guess my Monday will be spent boarding windows. Folks if you have not started making ice in your freezer, this is the time to start now. You had also best start your power out for a week plan for Florida Flicker and Light.

The models have been somewhat consistent predicting a Cat 1 at least somewhere between Ft. Myers and the Big Bend and none of those scenarios are good for the Sarasota area.

I think the 0500 forecast will be your heads up my fellow West Coasters...

[capepoint]

In my opinion....

TPC could have saved a lot of typing by just saying that they are just as clueless as the rest of us whether it will be west or east fla and to check back at 11.

Does not sound to me that they are discounting the eastern scenerio as much as some would like them too. Track adjusted slightly east (to me) means, why move it now because we really don't know if or which way to move it.

Just like ALL of us, they are going to have to watch and wait for awhile longer before nailing down the florida question.

...and the suspense builds.....

[gatorcane]

i think this is a key statement from the NHC discussion for Floridians -- CAT 1 winds are no picnic either.

EVERYONE IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST
LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.

bump so the word gets out -- its important to complete preparations across the FL peninsula.

[Frank P]

It shifted east a tad at the end of the run.. see link

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

this is one of my fav links as it depicts the history of the NHC forecast plots..

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 45 kt at the moment, since they are flying at 850mb and 57 kt FL translates to 46 kt at the surface, while disregarding the SFMR over the shallower water.

[Bocadude85]

why does the 5pm disc say the track was shifted eastward... looks like it shifted west to me

anyone...,....

[Noles2006]

It shifted east a tad at the end of the run.. see link

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

this is one of my fav links as it depicts the history of the NHC forecast plots..

A little misleading, IMO... it appears to have shifted westward in regard to landfall... and eastward as to the end of the 5 days...

[cpdaman]

notice the ULL in the last couple hours to Fay's west , seems it's movement (on the east side anyway) has slowed down, are the promet's thinking this could eventually provide a bit more shear over fay (maybe tonite or so)? and is the location this ULL sets up playing a role in when fay turns more northward?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[Aric Dunn]

why does the 5pm disc say the track was shifted eastward... looks like it shifted west to me

anyone...,....

beyond 48 hrs

[SkeetoBite]

i think this is a key statement from the NHC discussion for Floridians -- CAT 1 winds are no picnic either.

EVERYONE IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST
LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.

[KWT]

Should be noted here that this track is close to Charley and we all remember the way Charley altered its attack approach by only a small amount but it made a huge world of difference to the landfall zone, should the same happen here then somewhere could get a surprise.

[gatorcane]

Charley was no surprise. NHC had Punta Gorda in the cone so their forecast was correct. Too many people looked at the line going to Tampa and forgot there was a cone. So again I urge Floridians to PLEASE look at the CONE. That is what is most important.

[TCmet]

Seems as though the center is consolidating around the convective burst around 19.4 75.1. Recon shows it getting more defined now.