ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[AdamFirst]

:uarrow:

and another thing to note, if Fay deepens more quickly as it appears it may be trying to do expect some more right shifts in the models as fay attempts to move poleward and "finds" the weakness more easily.

looks like the GFDL and some of the other models that had Fay deepening fairly quickly may just be right...we'll have to see.

What do u mean by deepening? Sorry, I am very much an amateur when it comes to this stuff.

Deepening means strengthening.

[KWT]

The idea that if it gets stronger it will go further north is probably pretty vaild though should be noted that the GFDL is already a little far north of where this is.

Honestly the NHC looks decent enough, Fay is looking steadily better, its one of those systems that could undergo RI given its apperence isn't stunning still IMO yet still recon finds winds of 45-50kts. Still totally lop sided as well but thats what you'd expect with Cuba very close by.

[ronjon]

Well, if the intensity forecast is correct - and that is a big IF, then a CAT 1 hurricane won't be too bad for most of us since once inland it should weaken to a tropical storm fairly quickly. My only nagging worry is RI in the SE GOM - looks like it'll have 24 hrs after leaving the Cuba coast to intensify prior to the FL west coast landfall. If memory serves me, Charley really exploded in the SE GOM (I think it went from CAT 2 to CAT 4).

[gatorcane]

Should be noted here that this track is close to Charley and we all remember the way Charley altered its attack approach by only a small amount but it made a huge world of difference to the landfall zone, should the same happen here then somewhere could get a surprise.

I happen to agree. There are a lot of folks that live on the West Coast of Florida who remember how "lucky" they were and this means that everyone from Marco Island up to the Big Bend need to watch for a last minute turn. My larger concern is sudden intensification.

But remember after landfall Charley went to the east coast of FL, in this senario no matter where landfall is Tampa area should be affected in some way.

Not so sure about that. If Fay manages to take a track far enough away SE of Tampa, The Tampa area would be on the "better" side (NW quadrant) of the system. Usually the dirty side or NE quadrant is the worse side.

But since Tampa's in the cone residents should take measures to prepare for the worst, even if it never comes to fruition.

[storms in NC]

To all you posters jumping on the GFDL and Euro, looks like the NHC didn't put much stock in those runs today. Perhaps we'll know why in the 5 PM discussion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]


Well The GFDL has always done a very very good job. I really don't know why I wouldn't trust it now. I have said all along it would be more east of Fl and not the west side. And I Don't think she will go between Jamaica and Cuba either. I know I am not a met and don't clam to be one either. But you have the troff going off the coast now and Fay is feeling it. You can see it trying to pull her up to the North. You should see the turn in a few hours and go across Cuba tonight. She will be on a more of a NW track.

And I know you all see that I live in NC. I have never said it was going to come up this way. NEVER. 1 reason is cause I don't think she will make it up this far before she turns out to sea. Oh we could use the rain badly. I didn't know how bad till I did something dumb earlier. I took the water hoes and was running the ants out so I could kill them and my hose keep coming in farther and father then the water stop coming to the top and I couldn't get the hoes out. Had to get post digger and had to dig down 6 foot be for I could get my hoes out. I should have ran into water about 4 feet No water at all. that is how dry it is here. Shame we can't get the rain from Fay. Would be nice.
But any ways I trust The GFDL. I might eat crow NC BBQ style


Deb

[KWT]

Thats the issue Ronjon, if it does have a good set-up it could strengthen pretty rapidly, we've seen systems become monsters in 24hrs in high heat content, low shear set-ups. Though I think much depends on whether it can get better organised before Cuban landfall, IMO its getting slowly better and LLC is strong but convection still looks pretty poor, though bet it looks far better in 12hrs time...these systems usually take a good 12hrs after large land interaction such as DR to totally recover.

The simple truth is thus far ECM/GFDL has always been on the eastern side of what has actually occured, no reason why the same shouldn't happen again.

[Noles2006]

To all you posters jumping on the GFDL and Euro, looks like the NHC didn't put much stock in those runs today. Perhaps we'll know why in the 5 PM discussion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well The GFDL has always done a very very good job. I really don't know why I wouldn't trust it now. I have said all along it would be more east of Fl and not the west side. And I Don't think she will go between Jamaica and Cuba either. I know I am not a met and don't clam to be one either. But you have the troff going off the coast now and Fay is feeling it. You can see it trying to pull her up to the North. You should see the turn in a few hours and go across Cuba tonight. She will be on a more of a NW track.

And I know you all see that I live in NC. I have never said it was going to come up this way. NEVER. 1 reason is cause I don't think she will make it up this far before she turns out to sea. Oh we could use the rain badly. I didn't know how bad till I did something dumb earlier. I took the water hoes and was running the ants out so I could kill them and my hose keep coming in farther and father then the water stop coming to the top and I couldn't get the hoes out. Had to get post digger and had to dig down 6 foot be for I could get my hoes out. I should have ran into water about 4 feet No water at all. that is how dry it is here. Shame we can't get the rain from Fay. Would be nice.
But any ways I trust The GFDL. I might eat crow NC BBQ style


Deb[/quote]


The GFDL has been jumping around like crazy with this system... that's why you can't trust it in this instance. It's been very inconsistent (last night showed a category 4 storm in my neck o' the woods).

Oh... and 'round here... a hose and hoes are two very different things! Having hoes 6 feet deep would not be good. Not at all.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

19.4/75.4 appears to be near where the LLC is. Convection is firing over it and it appears to be strengthing on the visible, I mean the LLC. If it can move more westward for the next 2.5 degree's it will buy its self a day over the hot waters south of Cuba. That is the question, will it move more west-northwest in make landfall over cuba and follow its way up the spine, or will it past just south and move into a area of very hot water. The difference between how strong this system will be could be large.

I personally agree with the westward shift in the models. With a eastward hook once near 27 north. We will see.

[capepoint]

To all you posters jumping on the GFDL and Euro, looks like the NHC didn't put much stock in those runs today. Perhaps we'll know why in the 5 PM discussion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well The GFDL has always done a very very good job. I really don't know why I wouldn't trust it now. I have said all along it would be more east of Fl and not the west side. And I Don't think she will go between Jamaica and Cuba either. I know I am not a met and don't clam to be one either. But you have the troff going off the coast now and Fay is feeling it. You can see it trying to pull her up to the North. You should see the turn in a few hours and go across Cuba tonight. She will be on a more of a NW track.

And I know you all see that I live in NC. I have never said it was going to come up this way. NEVER. 1 reason is cause I don't think she will make it up this far before she turns out to sea. Oh we could use the rain badly. I didn't know how bad till I did something dumb earlier. I took the water hoes and was running the ants out so I could kill them and my hose keep coming in farther and father then the water stop coming to the top and I couldn't get the hoes out. Had to get post digger and had to dig down 6 foot be for I could get my hoes out. I should have ran into water about 4 feet No water at all. that is how dry it is here. Shame we can't get the rain from Fay. Would be nice.
But any ways I trust The GFDL. I might eat crow NC BBQ style


Deb

The GFDL has been jumping around like crazy with this system... that's why you can't trust it in this instance. It's been very inconsistent (last night showed a category 4 storm in my neck o' the woods).

Oh... and 'round here... a hose and hoes are two very different things! Having hoes 6 feet deep would not be good. Not at all.[/quote]

well, this is NC you know.....lol

[storms in NC]

You right I wrong types it wrong it is hose

[johngaltfla]

Thank you Senor. This one is looking bad for those of us in SW Florida. I'll be up early to determine if I'm making a Monday ice run or not.....looks likely at this point in time.

I really appreciate those graphics you put up. They are very useful.

[Noles2006]

:uarrow: You right I wrong types it wrong it is hose

lol, no biggie, I was just messing with ya!

hopefully you do get some rain from Fay!

[KWT]

I agree Matt, the only thing that will probably slow down strengthening before Cuban landfall is going to be just how close it is to Cuba. I suspect we could see a hurricane before it makes Cuba if it can build a CDO as recon has found 45kts winds, no reason why it won't deepen in the convection increases over Fay.

Tricky forecast, I do think the track will end up being further west of the NHC but not by a big deal IMO, maybe enough to but a little more time over water though and 6hrs may make the difference between 75kts and 90kts.

[senorpepr]

Not a problem. Hopefully I won't need to run any zoomed charts for Florida (or any place, for that matter), but I'm open to any ideas if that becomes the case.

I do plan on having some radar products up, coupled with surface observations, every 10 minutes or so.

[storms in NC]

BL need to get Dirt off. Bath time It is Sat night. LOLOLOLOL

[arlwx]

I'm just hoping this does NOT do a Charley. A relative of mine lost half her sunroom to Charley and the other half to Jeanne.

How? She was north of Orlando (in the Tavares area).

I think that not just the coasties in FL should prepare in case (1) Fay survives Cuba and (2) becomes Charlie's reincarnation. It looks like Crist is erring on the side of caution also.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Lots of deep convection trailing the main LLC, pretty classic sign of a system that has been over some large mountions fairly recently, I'd have thought that convection will explode back over the center in about 6-9hrs time providing its not inland again by that point which is possible given that little SE tip of Cuba.

[Bgator]

Well, it seems that Fay is the only story on Miami news. Watching channel 6, all they are talking about...

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Looks to be moving just a tad north of west. At this angle it might miss land. Any comments on this? Am I looking at it right?