ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Cuber]

Just adding my thanks for your efforts, skills and information.
Your dedication to this site is sincerely appreciated.
Well Done Sir !!!

[KWT]

Yeah thats true as well Kurtpage, without the rain though I'd guess that still probably would support 55kts I reckon?

Its a tough call as to how high they decide to go, not sure what I'd do to be honest!

[Dean4Storms]

The convection near the center does appear to be deepening, so there could have been a strong cell putting out those winds, not unheard of.

[Recurve]

Look at how far away Fay-influenced convection is, bursts forming along feeder band lines in the straits.

[JonathanBelles]

This is gonna be a long storm...and week.

[Lowpressure]

I was thinking the same with regards to thunderstorm wind interference. I wonder what readings would have come from that nasty complex south of Haiti earlier?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Crazy,is this set not valid,62kts?

224800 1816N 07454W 8430 01552 0104 +131 +131 196016 020 062 031 00

Those aren't flagged, but they do seem fishy with flight level winds of 16KT (20KT 10s gust)

well when you compare it to the 57kt FL they had in the VDM it fits rather nicely ..

the the only i cant figure out is why FL is so low .. also the 57kts although in the VDM i could not find it in an set of Hdobs.?

57kts was a surface wind not a flight level wind:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 22:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2008
Storm Name: Fay (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 21:58:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°17'N 75°22'W (19.28N 75.37W)
B. Center Fix Location: 60 miles (96 km) to the SSE (150°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 41kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 6 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:02:00Z

[KWT]

Impressive recurve to see convection being induced that far away from the center, I'd imagine the keys will get some convection and gusty winds even if the best case happens for the islands and it goes further west.

[deltadog03]

Ok, thanks!

[fasterdisaster]

57kts was a surface wind not a flight level wind:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 22:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2008
Storm Name: Fay (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 21:58:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°17'N 75°22'W (19.28N 75.37W)
B. Center Fix Location: 60 miles (96 km) to the SSE (150°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 41kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 6 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:02:00Z

Then what's this?

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:02:00Z

[KWT]

One other issue that hasn't been mentioned is if it does end up much further west it'll end up going over the loop current in the gulf (not sure its called that but you know what I mean!) and if it still has low shear then it could well develop very well, pretty much the further west it gets the higher the heat content it seems.

[Aric Dunn]

Crazy,is this set not valid,62kts?

224800 1816N 07454W 8430 01552 0104 +131 +131 196016 020 062 031 00

Those aren't flagged, but they do seem fishy with flight level winds of 16KT (20KT 10s gust)

well when you compare it to the 57kt FL they had in the VDM it fits rather nicely ..

the the only i cant figure out is why FL is so low .. also the 57kts although in the VDM i could not find it in an set of Hdobs.?

57kts was a surface wind not a flight level wind:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 22:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2008
Storm Name: Fay (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 21:58:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°17'N 75°22'W (19.28N 75.37W)
B. Center Fix Location: 60 miles (96 km) to the SSE (150°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 41kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 6 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:02:00Z[/quote]

remarks..
!

[fasterdisaster]

In that case this storm is definitely IMNPO at LEAST 50 kts.

[Vortex]

appears valid..I'd expect a bump up to 50-55..the reports coming in certainly are stronger than a minimul TS. Also, convection is firing and the overnight hours could provide decent strenthening if the center stays just offshore.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Crazy,is this set not valid,62kts?

224800 1816N 07454W 8430 01552 0104 +131 +131 196016 020 062 031 00

Those aren't flagged, but they do seem fishy with flight level winds of 16KT (20KT 10s gust)

well when you compare it to the 57kt FL they had in the VDM it fits rather nicely ..

the the only i cant figure out is why FL is so low .. also the 57kts although in the VDM i could not find it in an set of Hdobs.?

57kts was a surface wind not a flight level wind:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 22:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2008
Storm Name: Fay (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 21:58:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°17'N 75°22'W (19.28N 75.37W)
B. Center Fix Location: 60 miles (96 km) to the SSE (150°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 41kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 6 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:02:00Z[/quote]

remarks..
!

yeah I was looking at that after I posted it so it looks like from that VDM that they found 57kts surface and flight level winds which would support atleast 55kts if not even 60kts

[NDG]

Reconn about to go through LLC center, lets see what pressure it finds this time

225900 1835N 07458W 8426 01552 0095 +136 +136 244020 028 058 025 00

[Vortex]

it appears fay is also beginning to slow her forward speed.

[Recurve]

If you look at the wide view color IR, there are convection bands forming as far away as Sanibel and the west coast of Cuba. I'm a little amazed or my memory is bad. I've seen much more powerful storms in the Caribb of course, but I don't know about seeing convection popping so far away...just the result of a sprawling storm and the interaction with the trough I suppose. The moisture envelope does seem to carry almost to the Keys now.

[KWT]

Well i'd imagine given the system is slowly starting to look better again and deep convection is at least trying to develop over the center I'd imagine a slight pressure drop will be found.

Going to be a fairly stormy day in the Keys tomorrow as well as for Cuba no matter what track it takes, Ts force winds looks like they are going to hit that SE tip of Cuba within the next 6-12hrs.

[NDG]

Yeah, also might help in the MLC catch up.