ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[fasterdisaster]

The 11am advisory had Fay at 11pm tonight at 19.3N 75.4W, so based on that Fay is a little N and W of her 12 hour predicted position from 11am this morning.

Well all that means is she's going faster than predicted.

[Derek Ortt]

I wouldn't worry too much about the track of a poorly-defined center being a little north or south of the projected track for the next 24 hours. And don't look for any 90 degree turn tomorrow. Expect only a slow gain in latitude the next 24 hours followed by a gradual turn NW tomorrow night and Monday morning. It really makes little difference if Fay is a half degree either side of the forecast track, the turn will come. The only difference it might make is whether the center tracks inland along the western peninsula of FL or just offshore Tue/Wed.

Chris,

a half degree may make the difference between being over Cuba or over the Carib. Major implications for intensity

[Derek Ortt]

The 11am advisory had Fay at 11pm tonight at 19.3N 75.4W, so based on that Fay is a little N and W of her 12 hour predicted position from 11am this morning.

the forecast point was for 8 p.m., not 11

[wxman57]

The NHC track, not the cone is pretty much a split down the middle of the model consensus and the NHC usually puts more emphasis on the GFS. Many of the models do come west toward the Panhandle including most all the BAMM models, UKMET, NOGAPS and even some of the others. So yes, if Fay continues more westward than what the NHC track indicates it would be foolish to not give weight to those models in this situation.

Yes, NHC track is in the middle of the better model guidance (consensus models). BAMS (Shallow-BAM for weaker systems) is farthest west (red line on chart below). It's the only model that takes Fay to the FL panhandle, and it really shouldn't be used in the subtropics as it's not dynamical. GFDL (blue line) is farthest east. Note that the GFDL just made a major shift west to be more in line with the rest of guidance.

[KWT]

The 11am advisory had Fay at 11pm tonight at 19.3N 75.4W, so based on that Fay is a little N and W of her 12 hour predicted position from 11am this morning.

thats pretty close to where its actually at, I think wxman57 did make a very vaild point though that its not a very well defined center in regards to stacking issues and the LLC may wobble about a little bit as well.

Derek, yeah also the difference between scrapping W.Florida or hitting the Panhandle...

[shaggy]

I wouldn't worry too much about the track of a poorly-defined center being a little north or south of the projected track for the next 24 hours. And don't look for any 90 degree turn tomorrow. Expect only a slow gain in latitude the next 24 hours followed by a gradual turn NW tomorrow night and Monday morning. It really makes little difference if Fay is a half degree either side of the forecast track, the turn will come. The only difference it might make is whether the center tracks inland along the western peninsula of FL or just offshore Tue/Wed.

Chris,

a half degree may make the difference between being over Cuba or over the Carib. Major implications for intensity

If I've been reading correctly the high that is steering fay is a low/mid level high correct? If she gets stronger while staying south of Cuba isn't it possible that it then feels the effects of any weakness sooner and pulls north sooner threatening the S tip of florida with an earlier and possibly stronger storm than is being anticipated?

[KWT]

Yep model guidence still support west Florida hit wxman57, no reason for the NHC to change anything yet in terms of track unless this due west motion carries on for some time...

However general evolution is clearly the same in that it goes WNW, then turns NW slowly through to NNE over time.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't worry too much about the track of a poorly-defined center being a little north or south of the projected track for the next 24 hours. And don't look for any 90 degree turn tomorrow. Expect only a slow gain in latitude the next 24 hours followed by a gradual turn NW tomorrow night and Monday morning. It really makes little difference if Fay is a half degree either side of the forecast track, the turn will come. The only difference it might make is whether the center tracks inland along the western peninsula of FL or just offshore Tue/Wed.

wxman57,

a half degree may make the difference between being over Cuba or over the Carib. Major implications for intensity

Well, yeah, it could make a difference in the intensity if it's more over water rather than inland. I'm talking about the general track not potential intensity. But this storm is having such a hard time getting organized it may not be much stronger than it is now when it moves inland into Cuba in about 24 hours.

[Ivanhater]

wxman, that is not the only model having a FL panhandle..try the UKMET and NOGAPS



and she better start moving wnw now as those models show it moving wnw now

[KWT]

Should be noted the UKMO does sometimes overdo upper ridges a little too much from what I've seen in the past...

wxman57, this looks like one of those systems that has just crossed DR indeed, but eventualy its going to get stacked again, esp if the LLC slows down like it seems to be doing and when it does its got some explosive SST's to tap into, esp if it stays on the southern side of the guidence.

[Jason_B]

Actually it is already moving slightly north of west, so a solid wnw movement should take place tomorrow and eventually NW just like the models are showing. No reason for the models to shift any further west than they are right now.

[Dean4Storms]

The NHC track, not the cone is pretty much a split down the middle of the model consensus and the NHC usually puts more emphasis on the GFS. Many of the models do come west toward the Panhandle including most all the BAMM models, UKMET, NOGAPS and even some of the others. So yes, if Fay continues more westward than what the NHC track indicates it would be foolish to not give weight to those models in this situation.

Yes, NHC track is in the middle of the better model guidance (consensus models). BAMS (Shallow-BAM for weaker systems) is farthest west (red line on chart below). It's the only model that takes Fay to the FL panhandle, and it really shouldn't be used in the subtropics as it's not dynamical. GFDL (blue line) is farthest east. Note that the GFDL just made a major shift west to be more in line with the rest of guidance.

True enough

[Ivanhater]

BTW here is a track for Ivan

[jinftl]

We saw a west shift last evening, followed by an east shift today, and now a bit to the west again....if it is the trend that matters more than specific plot points far out in time...it seems there is only oscillation taking place....no clear overwhelming trend for several runs by a consensus of the models.

[Jason_B]

This is not going to hit Pensacola.

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 06, 2008081700, , BEST, 0, 193N, 757W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 0,

[KWT]

Actually it is already moving slightly north of west, so a solid wnw movement should take place tomorrow and eventually NW just like the models are showing. No reason for the models to shift any further west than they are right now.

Yeah maybe its hard to say as the center is bound to wobble around and stair step to some degree at least but the 2hr mean from what recon showed was due west for what its worth.

[Ivanhater]

This is not going to hit Pensacola.

Whew thanks, I was getting a little worried

[Steve Cosby]

Most of the links to the Cuban radars seemed to be off so here's the link that really works - all the radars are accessed from here:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

[blp]

I wouldn't worry too much about the track of a poorly-defined center being a little north or south of the projected track for the next 24 hours. And don't look for any 90 degree turn tomorrow. Expect only a slow gain in latitude the next 24 hours followed by a gradual turn NW tomorrow night and Monday morning. It really makes little difference if Fay is a half degree either side of the forecast track, the turn will come. The only difference it might make is whether the center tracks inland along the western peninsula of FL or just offshore Tue/Wed.

Chris,

a half degree may make the difference between being over Cuba or over the Carib. Major implications for intensity

Derek I was curious... If the system stays just south of Cuba tonight that will lead to a western shift in the models but if the system stays over carib waters and gets stronger say a hurricane won't that force the system to move more towards the eastern guidance in the longer term. Seems like the models have this interacting with Cuba tonight and keep it weak in the short term. Wanted to see your thoughts on this scenario.