ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Actually it is already moving slightly north of west, so a solid wnw movement should take place tomorrow and eventually NW just like the models are showing. No reason for the models to shift any further west than they are right now.

Yeah maybe its hard to say as the center is bound to wobble around and stair step to some degree at least but the 2hr mean from what recon showed was due west for what its worth.

Saying that longer term motion is indeed probably between 275-280 degrees over the past 9-12hrs, thats probably what really needs to be watched rather then short term wobbles and jogs.

[Dean4Storms]

This is not going to hit Pensacola.

Where do we buy your Crystal Ball?

P'Cola is still within the range of possibilities and within the NHC Cone last I saw. It is however at the moment a slim possiblity.

[Frank P]

Most of the links to the Cuban radars seemed to be off so here's the link that really works - all the radars are accessed from here:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

this one was working...

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... axw01a.gif

from what I can see it is still moving west... or at least some part of it..

[Shockwave]

This is not going to hit Pensacola.

Can you give some evidence to your confident answer? I'm still not discounting the fact of a Pensacola landfall.

[abajan]

This is not going to hit Pensacola.

Ought that not to be preceded by the S2K disclaimer, Jason_B?

[Ivanhater]

New bams out... bamd shift to west panhandle

[artist]

check out this radar -

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Pie ... AXw01a.gif

[cycloneye]

Getting organized:

[artist]

does it not look like the center is just on shore there?

[Dean4Storms]

New bams out... bamd shift to west panhandle

Yep, I saw that earlier and that was what I was referencing about all the BAMM models and others being toward the Panhandle now. We have the NOGAPS, UKMET and all the BAMM models swinging this way.

[KWT]

BAMD is way west, not sure why that would be the case mind you?

Also current mean direction is indeed 270 according to the latest data, exactly due west.

[caneman]

BTW here is a track for Ivan

That was more than a 96 hour forecast. We're now under 72 hours is GFS is right maybe even 66 hours for West coast landfall so you would expect a wider margin of error..

[Steve]

>>BTW here is a track for Ivan

First night I ever drank Absinthe as the city went under a curfew and I was on my bike. 5 mile ride home, despite a 30mph wind at my back, was still a little sketchy.

To stay on topic, here's a link the highres IR out of UWash.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Any news out of Hati/DR?

Another 2 degree's at a westward motion will give it another day over super hot waters.

[Ivanhater]

>>BTW here is a track for Ivan

First night I ever drank Absinthe as the city went under a curfew and I was on my bike. 5 mile ride home, despite a 30mph wind at my back, was still a little sketchy.

To stay on topic, here's a link the highres IR out of UWash.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e

Haaaa, heard that stuff was good, thought it was illegal in the states tho

looking forward to the 00z models..my best bet is still the western big bend area

[KWT]

Yeah caneman, still closeness to the actual time doesn't make a huge difference, I mean look how far away Katrina was when it dived SW compared to the guidence just 36hrs before, only one model picked up on that and that was the GFDL.

What should be noted is there is some slight shift from the models back and forth but the general track is unaltered, a turn to the north, maybe slightly east of north toward west Florida, or maybe eastern panhandle if it goes far enough west.

[jinftl]

Plus if you don't fixate on the black line....the eventual landfall point for ivan was in the cone even 5 days out....if you take away the black line for fay's 5-day....all the model runs, even the ones showing more west, are in the cone!

BTW here is a track for Ivan

That was more than a 96 hour forecast. We're now under 72 hours is GFS is right maybe even 66 hours for West coast landfall so you would expect a wider margin of error..

[Bgator]

Try not to pay attention to the BAMM models, it has only been said a million times, that they are close to useless in situations like this. GFS, GFDL, Euro, and other global models should be the ones looked at with higher confidence.

[tallywx]

does it not look like the center is just on shore there?

No, what you're seeing in that radar pic is ground clutter from the radar beam. That's not actually a core of precipitation but ground clutter around the radar site. You have to filter that out in your mind.

[fasterdisaster]

In a scenario that this were to go into SE Florida and then up the EC before hitting NC, are the waters suitable for strengthening off the coast?