ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

interesting shot..

[wxman57]

Here's a mix of the various consensus models plus the GFDL and HWRF. BAMs should not be used out of the deep tropics in a changing environment. NAM shouldn't be used for anything. NOGAPS is generally pretty bad, too. I notice a little west movement in the guidance from 18Z, possibly because the GFDL has shifted back to the west. I'd discount that 90 degree left then 90 degree right turn in the CGUN model.

[lbvbl]

So what's everyones thoughts on the 11pm track? Expecting any shifts E/W?

[Shockwave]

So what's everyones thoughts on the 11pm track? Expecting any shifts E/W?

I'll say a slight change more westernly.

[Evil Jeremy]

So what's everyones thoughts on the 11pm track? Expecting any shifts E/W?

Slight west shift, but only slight.

[wxman57]

So what's everyones thoughts on the 11pm track? Expecting any shifts E/W?

NHC won't make a change. No reason to keep moving it 20 miles east, 20 miles west, 20 miles east, etc.

[Bgator]

So what's everyones thoughts on the 11pm track? Expecting any shifts E/W?

Maybe a little shift west, nothing major.

[Evil Jeremy]

A hurricane watch for the keys will probably come sometime within the next 3 full advisories IMO.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Advisory 081608

Tropical Storm Fay is recovering from her Hispaniola rendezvous while it moves closer to Cuba. Fay is also a very significant threat to the entire state of Florida.

(Remember do not focus on the center line)


Windward Passage…Northern Caribbean…Tropical Storm Fay. Fay is recovering from the mountains of Hispaniola. She is moving to the WNW toward the Granma Province of southern Cuba.

Fay has winds of 45 mph and will continue to gradually intensify near or off the coast of Cuba for the next day. The intensity may be close to hurricane strength just before landfall in Cienfuegos or Matanzas providence, Cuba. For right now I think that winds will be around 65-70mph at the possible 2nd Cuban landfall. Fay may pass very near to Havana, Cuba or just to its east.

From there I expect Fay to enter the 30-32°C (86-90°F) water. This in common with low shear should allow for the intensification of Fay all the way to a Floridian landfall. The intensity will likely be a category 1 hurricane at landfall. Where that landfall occurs is largely up in the air, but it will more than likely be on the western Florida coastline. The final intensity will depend on how far up the western Florida coastline Fay makes it. The NHC currently has a landfall in the Tampa Bay area. I am keeping the track just to the left of the NHC’s based on the current models that are left of the NHC forecast track.

There is a Tropical Storm Warning issued for the eastern half of Cuba , The northern Cayman Islands, and southern Haiti. I believe that the warning for Haiti will be dropped in the very coming hours. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the middle Bahamas, Jamaica, and the southern Cayman Islands. Those in either of these advisories should be expecting tropical storm conditions in the next 24-36 hours. 4-8” of rain is expected in all of these areas with greater amounts in the mountainous areas. Lesser amounts can be expected in the Bahamas. Mudslides and floods should be expected in the more elevated areas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect in central Cuba. Those in this area should expect hurricane force gusts, and possible times of hurricane force sustained winds around the area of landfall and to the right of Fay’s track. 2-4” of rain is expected in this area with rainfall up to 8” in the higher elevations.

The State of Florida is under a State of Emergency. The entire peninsula and much of the panhandle will feel the effects of Fay in the coming days. This is the time to prepare your houses and your lives for an impending hurricane or tropical storm. Heavy rainfall and high winds are expected in the next few days. Preparations should be rushed to completion. Surge may become a major threat for the bays on the west coast of Florida. Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches and warnings will be issued across Florida in the next day or so. Evacuations will be issued. Please heed these warnings. Remember that Charley took a turn early. I am not saying this will turn early, I am saying that you should take a better safe than sorry approach and be prepared.

Everyone in Cuba and Florida should be watching this system and preparing for its wrath.

Jonathan

[cpdaman]

i have heard some people mentioned that fay is in the same spot as dennis (conductive for strengthening) but it think there is a critical difference in that at the same longitude (roughly 76 west) dennis was further south (about 60 miles) Dennis approached from about a 310 degee heading. Meaning dennis was WELL SW and away from cuban mountains (by about 60 miles) or so, when comparing the differences in latitude at the same longitude. Thus the mountains are much more inhibiting as they are significantly closer , and second but less important dennis had a rather small CDO during his time S of SE cuba.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Denn ... _track.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hurr ... 50_UTC.jpg

anyway , any promets think that the SE mountains of cuba are a big hinderance for awhile with this thing

[Dean4Storms]

I would not expect any track changes until after the 0Z Runs come out with the recon samplings expected to inhance the outcomes.

[physicx07]

I agree with wxman, no change in track at 11.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

19.4/76.2 I would place the center. It is trying to form a centeral core, but it is having problems with doing so so far. Maybe because of the mountains to its north. If it stays south of the nhc's track and makes it past 78 west; that should change.

[Agua]

I haven't been keeping up with this, but has there been a recent Gulfstream IV sampling mission recently? If not, is one scheduled?
Thanks

[NDG]

New bams out... bamd shift to west panhandle

Yep, I saw that earlier and that was what I was referencing about all the BAMM models and others being toward the Panhandle now. We have the NOGAPS, UKMET and all the BAMM models swinging this way.

I find it interesting that the CMC showed the current track very well and was laughed at by some but it was right. It is now one of the ones with the sharpest recurves!

And so was the euro, it was one of the most southern forecasted tracks initially, and now also has a sharp recurveture.

[Vortex]

latest trends on sat and radar imply a slower heading and short term motion of WNW/NW

[carversteve]

interesting shot..

Is that the center to the se from that tip of cuba?..not sure how many miles>

[NDG]

17.4/76.2 I would place the center. It is trying to form a centeral core, but it is having problems with doing so so far. Maybe because of the mountains to its north. If it stays south of the nhc's track and makes it past 78 west; that should change.

Do you mean 19.4 instead of 17.4?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

17.4/76.2 I would place the center. It is trying to form a centeral core, but it is having problems with doing so so far. Maybe because of the mountains to its north. If it stays south of the nhc's track and makes it past 78 west; that should change.

Do you mean 19.4 instead of 17.4?

I fixed it

[artist]

aren't the bamm models pretty much useless out of the eastern atlantic?

How 'bout them Dolphins!