ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[johngaltfla]

Well, I'm calling it a night. Alarm set for 4:30 for another 12-16 hr work day. I'll take a peek at the NHC track, first.

Thank you wx for all you do. I'm up at 0430-0500 usually myself. I fear Sunday through Wednesday could be very long days here also....

[cpdaman]

recon is going out tonite guys? i had some confusion from reading the recon discussion thread

[caneman]

Can some post the image for Eastern Gulf heat potential? I think it is called TCHP. Shows how strong a Hurricane the water could support right now. Thanks

[ekal]

More than adequate, except adjacent to the W FL coast.

[wxman57]

Can some post the image for Eastern Gulf heat potential? I think it is called TCHP. Shows how strong a Hurricane the water could support right now. Thanks

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[Evil Jeremy]

From the 11 PM:

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[wxman57]

No track change on latest advisory, as expected. Slightly weaker.

[jaxfladude]

Still watching Fay closely..............

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

I think it's just right enough of trop points to stumble on Cabo Cruz. Like wxman57, there could be questions of intensity because of this.

[Evil Jeremy]

Actually, the new track looks slightly more east on day 5. I have full screen copies of both, and am comparing them closely, and it looks like the new track has landfall a little more south this time.

[SkeetoBite]

72 hour point just barely north. no significant change. Forecast to expand quite a bit.

[jaxfladude]

Well the 'Fish won a game vs my home town team the jags even if it is a Pre-Season NFL game...congrats, now back to Fay....
I hope that all of Fla plus the far Panhandle( and eastern LA, all of coastal MS and AL) will watch the progress of Fay....the forecast is for Fay to be a bigger size so alot/some parts of Fla may be under Fay....

[Jason_B]

Really not looking good for Tampa.

[wzrgirl1]

looks as if i may be able to breathe a little bit of a sigh of relief here in west broward....although things can change overnight

[johngaltfla]

Looking worse for Englewood and Sarasota. The key thing is that we have to worry about rapid intensification as the waters here are extremely, uh, toasty.

Sunday night and Monday morning will not be dull for the west coast of Florida and its residents...

[Evil Jeremy]

Is the recon flight going out now the Gulfstream one, or did that one already go out?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, I'm calling it a night. Alarm set for 4:30 for another 12-16 hr work day. I'll take a peek at the NHC track, first.

Since I spend half an hour before work as an engineer looking at weather, an hour at lunch, twenty minutes or so during the rest of the day, and an hour or two at home, looking at sports, weather, and political blogs, I'd say 16 hours a day of looking at weather would be a paid hobby.


I wanted to be a met, my Dad said the mets at American Airlines weren't paid well. I guess he had a point, I doubt many mets out of college start in the mid/upper 5 figures. I read a scary story about PSU grads, AccuWx, and starting salaries about five years ago. Ok, they don't get paid much, but they get paid for doing what they like.


BTW, my boss knows, big storm offshore anywhere US, and add an hour during the day of checks on satellite, recon, and the weather blogs. I haven't mentioned Storm2K, he might start reading and figure out how much time I spend.

back on topic- how come Fay looks better on land than offshore?

[Jason_B]

Well the 'Fish won a game vs my home town team the jags even if it is a Pre-Season NFL game...congrats, now back to Fay....
I hope that all of Fla plus the far Panhandle( and eastern LA, all of coastal MS and AL) will watch the progress of Fay....the forecast is for Fay to be a bigger size so alot/some parts of Fla may be under Fay....

I think it's safe to say everybody west of the panhandle is in the clear, models strongly agree with a west coast Fla landfall and every time we second guess the NHC's track we end up wrong. It slowing down is a good sign it's about to finally turn north.

[Sanibel]

The heat potential offshore of Sanibel showed maximums of 150-165 knots. Explosive potentials. This is the pefect set-up for a shocker RI system people didn't take seriously.

NHC map gives us a morning storm passing us at peak around 9:30am.