ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ivanhater]

Dean is on duty tonight!

[ericinmia]

cpdaman.....

Zoom in just north of eastern Jamaica and speed up the animation and tell me what you see there........


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

It's clear as day just to the SW of the new ball of convection just of the cuban coast. Zoom in and take a look... speed it up... or watch however you like. But that is the ONLY place in that image that I see clouds moving east and west concurrently.. ie the center.
-Eric

[Dean4Storms]

Dean is on duty tonight!

LOL! I'm trying. MGC will tell ya that I can spot an LLC on Sat imagery like no other.

[Ivanhater]

Dean is on duty tonight!

LOL! I'm trying. MGC will tell ya that I can spot an LLC on Sat imagery like no other.

Lol, well im watching the NOGAPS roll out and see if it is sticking but it did initialize close to where you have it, hard to tell tho

[Bocadude85]

I see an outflow coming out of the convection to the north where they say the LLC should be even on Visible here......

Once again zoom in and speed it up........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

that isnt a outflow boundary.. convection would be collapsing not developing

[vbhoutex]

Zoom in here and speed up the animation, you'll see what Delta and I have been getting at.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html


It is lower level clouds, note the light gray colors.

Looking at that loop I see the LLCC right where NHC says it is. As Marshall says we will know shortly. I looked at some earlier(a few pages back)posted loops by Dean, etc. and what I think some are alluding to may have been an outflow boundary, which I note has now disappeared.

That doesn't look like an outflow boundary to me at roughly 18.8n 76.6w

I said that the outflow I saw earlier is gone now, but you are obviously seeing something I don't(could have missed it). I still see the LLCC very near to what NHC has come up with, basically just North of where you say you see something. Nightime sat loops are notoriously decieving sometimes too. Who knows? We won't for sure till the recon is in. I will say that I am becoming a little concerned(without having looked at maps depicting the ridging), that Fay may be going a little further West than some think while she is S of Cuba. This could have a large impact in the long run if I am correct.

[NDG]

Cuban radar shows nicely where center is, end of discussion of where you think it is by looking at the IR.

[cpdaman]

cpdaman.....

Zoom in just north of eastern Jamaica and speed up the animation and tell me what you see there........


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

dean your persistance (sp?) has paid off, i once again see what your talking about

although i'm not sure its at the surface we shall know soon!

[Dean4Storms]

I'll wait from here on Recon, I see a rotation there but not so sure as you point out with IR if it is at the surface.

[ericinmia]

Yeah, cuban radar shows it in line with the NHC... and many of us on here that have been trying to track it.

As others have said, (especially without visible at night) it is very hard to track a developing storm at night through IR/etc. Many other cloud movements can get you either all excited or confused.
-Eric

[vbhoutex]

Cuban radar shows nicely where center is, end of discussion of where you think it is by looking at the IR.

Bada bing!! Bada boom!! It appears to leave little doubt, unless there is a real stacking issue, which is doubtful with Fay now beginning to strengthen.

[tampastorm]

Cuban radar shows nicely where center is, end of discussion of where you think it is by looking at the IR.

Looks obvious to me.

[Dean4Storms]

Cuban radar shows nicely where center is, end of discussion of where you think it is by looking at the IR.

I'll admit that the radar is showing a circulation up further north, however radar does not show the surface and it would have to look through that heavy Precip to see down where I am talking about. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and will be the first to admit it.

[ericinmia]

Strange as it may be... the 00z canadian run has it fairly near this spot and then moves it west to wnw for a few hours before rapidly taking it north. I have trouble seeing that great of a turn take place though, unless this is one seriously square shaped ridge.

[AtlanticWind]

Cuban radar shows nicely where center is, end of discussion of where you think it is by looking at the IR.

I'll admit that the radar is showing a circulation up further north, however radar does not show the surface and it would have to look through that heavy Precip to see down where I am talking about. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and will be the first to admit it.

That is the center near the south coast of cuba, moving WNW too!

[tampastorm]

Cuban radar shows nicely where center is, end of discussion of where you think it is by looking at the IR.

I'll admit that the radar is showing a circulation up further north, however radar does not show the surface and it would have to look through that heavy Precip to see down where I am talking about. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and will be the first to admit it.

That is the center near the south coast of cuba, moving WNW too!

Where do you see WNW? I see still west

[PTPatrick]

well the NHC and pretty much every model has it clipping the SW tip that sticks off of cuba down there. Not sure why this is that big of a surprise. It should be moving nearly just north of west for now allowing it to clip the tip, not chop it off

[Jason_B]

I don't see how you can detect a wnw movement in that radar loop, in fact it hardly looks like it's moving.

[NDG]

Is hard to see its heading with only 45 minutes of images looping

[Dean4Storms]

Could the ULL or MLL to the west near western Cuba be displacing the MLC to the north of the LLC?