ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

050700 1846N 07545W 8432 01568 0110 +149 +149 170044 046 033 007 03

46 knots FL

[NDG]

Nice flight level winds found so far SE of the center, recon should report back in the next round of reports as it moves through the center

050700 1846N 07545W 8432 01568 0110 +149 +149 170044 046 033 007 03

[cpdaman]

we shall see in appox 6 minutes (check recon thread)

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Can clearly see the center on shortwave. WNW I think

[NDG]

Could the ULL or MLL to the west near western Cuba be displacing the MLC to the north of the LLC?

They have been displaced all day, which is normal after a tropical system travels through high mountainous terrain.

[cpdaman]

yes they have but w/ the MLC to the south

[lbvbl]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Can clearly see the center on shortwave. WNW I think

yeah based on that Fay looks on track with NHC forecast model

[NDG]

050700 1846N 07545W 8432 01568 0110 +149 +149 170044 046 033 007 03

46 knots FL

And these winds are not even close to the convection nearest to the LLC, I am sure they will find higher winds than that.

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Can clearly see the center on shortwave. WNW I think

yeah based on that Fay looks on track with NHC forecast model

NOT moving north. What you see is the deep convective burst on the NE side wrapping around the center. Check radar. No hint of more than a 275 movement.

[PTPatrick]

Dont know if it was posted or whatever, but for what its worth, 0z NOGAPS has landfall about AL/FL border. So it trended back west tonight although nothing dramatic(I think it was showing a panama city landfall at 12z.

[AL Chili Pepper]

That sat loop looks like the LLC is right on top of the nhc track to me, and moving just N of W. Wish I could see what you all are talking about.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Can clearly see the center on shortwave. WNW I think

yeah based on that Fay looks on track with NHC forecast model

NOT moving north. What you see is the deep convective burst on the NE side wrapping around the center. Check radar. No hint of more than a 275 movement.

Right on NhC track as far as I can see.

[Scorpion]

I'm thinking that the mountains could actually assist Fay in wrapping up the inner core.

[cheezyWXguy]

Right on NhC track as far as I can see.

I think it may actually be slightly south of the 12 hour point. Current motion appears to be slightly further south than the NHC is calling for, based on radar. Not totally sure though.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm thinking that the mountains could actually assist Fay in wrapping up the inner core.

may be possible, but no matter what it is, based on radar i definitely see a tightening inner core.

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Can clearly see the center on shortwave. WNW I think

yeah based on that Fay looks on track with NHC forecast model

NOT moving north. What you see is the deep convective burst on the NE side wrapping around the center. Check radar. No hint of more than a 275 movement.

ummm maybe 280 or so

[boca]

Is the center just south of the Cuban south coast in the northern red dot with black towards the center.Not the one in Jamaica.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

What worries me now is that Cat 1 prediction near Tampa Bay. I highly doubt that will be the case. Hurricane Charlie is fresh on everyone's mind on the west coast. We all saw how those incredibly warm waters can radically explode an organized storm. The middle and west half of Cuba does little to disrupt a storm. That part of the country is relatively flat and merely keeps strengthening from occurring. At the speed Fay is traveling, it won't bite her too bad at all. Then when it gets into the gulf...watch out! She will explode in short order.

For Tampa, best case scenario is for it to go in like Charlie did, leaving Tampa in the front left quad. Any storm to Tampa's west is very bad news as far as storm surge. That is the "worst case scenario" as far as pushing a whole lot of water up into the bay...a storm approach from the ssw or s.

To top this all off...has anyone looked outside tonight??? See that big beutiful full moon that just smiles down on us? It's beautiful...until we realize that our highest tides occur with the full moon. On Tuesday night, just about 8pm, we have our highest tide around St. Petersburg of the month. It will be about 2.8ft. above mean.

That is the time that they would expect Fay to pay a visit nearby.

[mf_dolphin]

To top this all off...has anyone looked outside tonight??? See that big beutiful full moon that just smiles down on us? It's beautiful...until we realize that our highest tides occur with the full moon. On Tuesday night, just about 8pm, we have our highest tide around St. Petersburg of the month. It will be about 2.8ft. above mean.

That is the time that they would expect Fay to pay a visit nearby.

You're just full of good news All true but I really didn't want to hear it

[cpdaman]

what are the loops not updating for the last 40 min or so , stuck at 415 utc

same w/ ramdis

anyone have a site with some more up to date satelite pics, i'm also trying to make sense of the recon data, otherwise i think it is bed time (will be back at 9'ish) after some eggs and pancakes Yea