Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
GFS loop thru 150 hr riding up the east coast as a remnant low.

Did this initialize wrong? The center looks to be off DR.

[cycloneye]

canetracker,what did you see in the run that you discount?

The immediate NW movement.

Yes.I agree.It should start moving NW right now to then have the GFS track.

[canetracker]

canetracker,what did you see in the run that you discount?

The immediate NW movement.

Yes.I agree.It should start moving NW right now to then have the GFS track.

Agreed! Hope you did get your rains from Fay and fared well.

[DESTRUCTION5]

canetracker,what did you see in the run that you discount?

See that loop Luis? bounced al over FL!

[Dean4Storms]

That CMC run is on crack, it already has the center over eastern Cuba. Wrong!

[AtlanticWind]

That CMC run is on crack, it already has the center over eastern Cuba. Wrong!

All the computer models are tested for drugs , well maybe not the canadian

[Bocadude85]

Yes the models have been bouncing around but you have to admit most still bring it into sw or south central florida.. seems its been trending that way for awhile now

[canetracker]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time
The models may be seeing this weakeness in above link, buf Fay is still moving west per links below:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/170246.shtml

I do think she will feel the weakness and turn towards Florida, but the question is when?

[canetracker]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg
00z Canadian

[Jason_B]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg
00z Canadian

That would be really BAD for the entire west coast of the state.

[Ivanhater]

00z Nogaps..even further west..what gives?

[Ivanhater]

[Duddy]

00z Nogaps..even further west..what gives?

This is the weirdest I have ever seen the models behave.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Looking at the WV imagery tonight I just can't see how Fay can make it much west of the west Coast of FL.

Look at how fast the high clouds are moving west to east over the Panhandle. I really don't see it getting close to there. I believe that a West Coast of FL hit from Tampa South all the way to SE Coast of FL is the target here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[PTPatrick]

yeah Ivan hunter...that isnt rosy for Pensacola. But I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle as it almost always is. Being the brunt of the farthest west outlier isnt that bad of a place to be right now. As it stands you will likely be on the good side. Of course you know things change, and I wouldnt be surprised to see some more models bend toward p'cola before they settle somwhere in the middle of the panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

yeah Ivan hunter...that isnt rosy for Pensacola. But I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle as it almost always is. Being the brunt of the farthest west outlier isnt that bad of a place to be right now. As it stands you will likely be on the good side. Of course you know things change, and I wouldnt be surprised to see some more models bend toward p'cola before they settle somwhere in the middle of the panhandle.

Very true, my best guess is central to eastern panhandle right now, but the Nogaps aint budging, even more west tonight..just crazyness

[Steve]

Looks like it flattens the flow up near the coast a bit to get that NW heading.

http://www.francisperey.com/sailing/nogaps.htm

At the deep layer - maybe negatively tilts the next trough back toward 90ish and brings it in around a high coming down later.

Sea Level Pressure w/ 700 maybe showing a MS landfall. It's gotta be a left outlier - landfall Wed.

You can run the different levels and charts and see what it's doing. Not impossible, not too likely though you wouldn't think.

Steve

[Jason_B]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Looking at the WV imagery tonight I just can't see how Fay can make it much west of the west Coast of FL.

Look at how fast the high clouds are moving west to east over the Panhandle. I really don't see it getting close to there. I believe that a West Coast of FL hit from Tampa South all the way to SE Coast of FL is the target here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Agreed and that's why the consensus is further to the east over the peninsula. Patience people, the turn north may be delayed and the track may slightly shift west but in the end I'm sure the NHC will be on the money with this one just like they are usually all the time.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Forget the NOGAPS ivanhater, there are no other models that bring it that way -- at least the ones we should be paying attention to.

I just don't see a panhandle hit on this one. It's likely to track well to the SE of you which should bring in some NNW winds for your area.....and some dryer air from the north. You'll probably see a reduction in POPS as dry air subsidence reduces afternoon convection at least until FAY passes well to the SE.

WV loop analysis shows the small likelyhood that it could actually make it that far NW.

[Dean4Storms]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Looking at the WV imagery tonight I just can't see how Fay can make it much west of the west Coast of FL.

Look at how fast the high clouds are moving west to east over the Panhandle. I really don't see it getting close to there. I believe that a West Coast of FL hit from Tampa South all the way to SE Coast of FL is the target here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

That trough you see will be gone by Monday/Tues.