ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Dean4Storms]

That Advisory will not have the Recon info

[cheezyWXguy]

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA STRAITS ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA

Im not so sure about the wnw movement. It seems more like 275-280...unless recon has confirmed differently...

[gatorcane]

Its already disorganized to an extent but cpdaman it does look WNW or north of due west. Its very hard to tell. Gator I think even if this hits the west coast well gets some weather out of this one.

posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

no doubt we'll get some weather but I find it hard to believe SE FL could experient CAT 1 conditions let along strong TS but I could be wrong. Maybe I'm just -removed- that it doesn't happen as my hurricane shutters for my house remain wrapped up in my garage

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has to make it another 1.2 degree's west to miss making landfall on that little piece of land. It has only .4 lat to the north to avoid doing so, I believe it will clip it or maybe go inland for a short time.

[funster]

It has to make it another 1.2 degree's west to miss making landfall on that little piece of land. It has only .4 lat to the north to avoid doing so, I believe it will clip it or maybe go inland for a short time.

Yup, it probably will clip it briefly.

[cheezyWXguy]

Its already disorganized to an extent but cpdaman it does look WNW or north of due west. Its very hard to tell. Gator I think even if this hits the west coast well gets some weather out of this one.

posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

no doubt we'll get some weather but I find it hard to believe SE FL could experient CAT 1 conditions let along strong TS but I could be wrong. Maybe I'm just -removed- that it doesn't happen as my hurricane shutters for my house remain wrapped up in my garage

You rearlly dont think that this will be even a strong ts by the time this gets to florida? It doesnt have to strengthen all that much to meet the definition of a strong ts. This could be a hurricane by the time it crosses cuba into the gulf, and the new hwrf brings it into st petersburg as a cat3. Theres a ton of potential for this storm.

[cpdaman]

i think he is saying since it is most likely to go over west coastal florida that east coastal florida will probably only get minimal tropical storm winds or gusts

[hurricanefloyd5]

Its already disorganized to an extent but cpdaman it does look WNW or north of due west. Its very hard to tell. Gator I think even if this hits the west coast well gets some weather out of this one.

posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

no doubt we'll get some weather but I find it hard to believe SE FL could experient CAT 1 conditions let along strong TS but I could be wrong. Maybe I'm just -removed- that it doesn't happen as my hurricane shutters for my house remain wrapped up in my garage

You rearlly dont think that this will be even a strong ts by the time this gets to florida? It doesnt have to strengthen all that much to meet the definition of a strong ts. This could be a hurricane by the time it crosses cuba into the gulf, and the new hwrf brings it into st petersburg as a cat3. Theres a ton of potential for this storm.

You have that model loop I can see to back that up please????????

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

it almost looks to be trying to move NW from that radar..

which...would mean alot of models would be a bit too far left...

Let's see if its wobbling or a trend.

[Aric Dunn]

[NDG]

Blowing up nicely

[Jason_B]

Is there a longer version of that radar loop other than just an hour?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When you look at it, you see that this is a very small storm when talking about the innercore fo the system. Yes it looks big but what counts is small.

Those high mountains on that island you would think should be able to force this system to slide to their south. Like trying to run into a wall. We will see.

[TexasSam]

Fay seems to be getting a nice round "center" on that cuba radar.

[cpdaman]

Those high mountains on that island you would think should be able to force this system to slide to their south. Like trying to run into a wall. We will see.

i don't think fay got the message, she appears ready to butt heads within the hour


sleep or wobble watching....

[NDG]

I do see a WNW, but definitely no NW heading just yet

[funster]

Fay seems to be getting a nice round "center" on that cuba radar.

She does seem to be. She has to get around those mountains and then she should have a chance to strengthen for several hours.

[Sal Collaziano]

Exactly. Very little unless Fay either covers more area or becomes more intense.

i think he is saying since it is most likely to go over west coastal florida that east coastal florida will probably only get minimal tropical storm winds or gusts

[fasterdisaster]

I think the eye-like feature is the MLC though.