Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[boca]

I'm going to have to go ahead and catch Ivanhater's back on this one. It's one thing for people to be cocky, and whinecasty about stuff but he takes the high road. In the entire intrastate discussion, he's probably the least cockiest of all right now (not that anyone has really crossed the line this time IMHO).

Outsider opinion.

Steve

Thanks Steve, you dont seem me syaing Nogaps will happen and the other models are wrong, just more interested in that solution for obvious reasons, Ive said numerous times my track is around the eastern panhandle, but ah people hear what they want. but C'est la vie

I back you too Ivanhater. The nogaps shows Fay heading in your general direction so rightly so you are concerned,as I would be too if I lived up there.

[Jason_B]

Folks in the panhandle can breathe a sigh of relief now that Fay is heading wnw and starting to follow the track.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

CRAP

I finally get a boat after living on the water for the last 5 years. And of course, Tampa doesn't see a serious storm in 80+ years, until I moor it at my dock.

[Weeks Bay]

jason b
what are you basing that on?

[cheezyWXguy]

Folks in the panhandle can breathe a sigh of relief now that Fay is heading wnw and starting to follow the track.

lol

[SouthFloridawx]

CRAP

I finally get a boat after living on the water for the last 5 years. And of course, Tampa doesn't see a serious storm in 80+ years, until I moor it at my dock.

Awwww.... sorry to hear that. Wait and see what's up, it's not over yet.

[Brent]

WOW

[sgastorm]

Code: Select all

900   

WHXX01 KWBC 170625 

CHGHUR 

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 

0625 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008 

   

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 

   

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 

   

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080817 0600 UTC 

   

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 

        080817  0600   080817  1800   080818  0600   080818  1800 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    19.6N  76.8W   20.6N  79.3W   21.5N  81.4W   22.5N  83.0W 

BAMD    19.6N  76.8W   20.5N  78.8W   21.5N  80.6W   22.7N  82.2W 

BAMM    19.6N  76.8W   20.5N  79.0W   21.5N  80.8W   22.6N  82.4W 

LBAR    19.6N  76.8W   20.4N  78.6W   21.5N  80.4W   22.9N  81.8W 

SHIP        45KTS          53KTS          59KTS          65KTS 

DSHP        45KTS          52KTS          43KTS          47KTS 

   

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 

        080819  0600   080820  0600   080821  0600   080822  0600 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    23.2N  84.1W   25.2N  85.3W   27.6N  86.2W   30.7N  86.3W 

BAMD    23.6N  83.3W   25.5N  85.4W   28.7N  87.2W   33.9N  86.9W 

BAMM    23.6N  83.5W   25.8N  85.0W   29.0N  85.9W   33.3N  84.8W 

LBAR    24.7N  82.5W   28.1N  81.7W   30.9N  81.0W   33.5N  80.6W 

SHIP        72KTS          77KTS          75KTS          65KTS 

DSHP        54KTS          38KTS          28KTS          27KTS 

   

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 

LATCUR =  19.6N LONCUR =  76.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  11KT 

LATM12 =  19.1N LONM12 =  74.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  13KT 

LATM24 =  18.7N LONM24 =  71.4W 

WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   35KT 

CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D 

RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =   50NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM 

   

$$ 

NNNN 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[Thunder44]

Tonight's 0z Euro has a track like the 0z GFDL, except it's slower and little further south along SC coast:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Nimbus]

The 2 AM models are still split giving a cone that extends from Mobile Bay east all the way to south Carolina.

The LLC appears to be just south of Granma Cuba moving WNW but we will get a better idea by this afternoon when recon gets in.

There is a weak ULL just to the west of Fay that could provide some extra steering to the north but the ULL circulation is rolling west. I'm still in the western track model camp for the upper air forecast. The ridge evolution is going to be critical.

Although I don't see any evidence of a Charley trough setup yet such as the GFDL is depicting, Fay is going to start recurving as she spins up. Unless there is a ridge building over the northern gulf later in the forecast the NOGAPS is not going to verify either.

The models should get caught up once they have a better initialization. Neither the LLC position nor the upper air environment is very clear this morning.

[webke]

The 06 GFS is following the GFDL
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[Aquawind]

The 06 GFS is following the GFDL
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

Geeesh.. This Fay chick is highly irritating and just won't go home!

[Trader Ron]

Dr Lyon's mentioned Naples/Ft Myers for landfall.

[Bane]

that's another shift east for the gfs, but it is the 6z model run.

[Bane]

btw, if that were to verify, parts of the southeast are gonna get flooded as it is showing fay crawling up the coast.

[Trader Ron]

Fay moving at 9-12 mph would not be good. Let's hope it's only a T.S.

[sunny]

I just find it funny people dismiss when models dont show their area, Im not dismissing the other models, just throwing out the other options...but carry on

And you don't fall under this category too? You're always jumping on every model that has shifted towards your area, you even posted a old forecast graphic of Ivan.

Perhaps because I live where they are showing So obviously more interested in those solutions, but you dont see me saying to throw the other models out..keep up

Not to worry Ivanhater, I'm watching the NOGAPS right along with you with extreme interest! It's been insisting on this general track since yesterday...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I've noticed that the 6z model runs have sped up the arrival time of Fay by a good 6-12 hours...

The 6z GFDL now shows Fay inland over central FL by Tuesday at 8am - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... l/slp9.png
The 6z HWRF now shows Fay just west of Tampa by Tuesday at 8am - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2 ... l/slp9.png
The 6z GFS now has Fay coming ashore near Port Charlotte by Tuesday at 8am - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... 6/slp9.png

[HurryKane]

What is going on with the BAMs taking a hard left?

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

A lot of faith goes into "eroding ridges". Katrina was supposed to go to Panama City based on these models.