ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

Yes the ULL is on the move to the WSW. You can see the swirl in the WV loop here. Check it out just on the western tip of Cuba trucking WSW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Derek Ortt]

I cannot find a center at all on high-res imagery

[robbielyn]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL some more models are leaning toward a west panhandle landfall. Thinking if fay stays west and crosses over the isle of youth. Now that would be a typical scenario I could buy that one.

[Air Force Met]

This is not a healthy looking storm. Looks to be some stable air out to the west of the LLC on visible imagery. With tops warming...this is good news. Not saying it can't be a min cat 1 at final landfall...but its not going to do it anytime soon.

[robbielyn]

it's becoming more apparent that fay will turn due North than NNE..This will be critical to the Florida peninsula as those to the right of a storm in particular a storm moving N/NNE will receive the brunt of Fay. Those west of the center will receive little wind or rain.

I hope you are right and this thing goes east of tampa bay

[Air Force Met]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL some more models are leaning toward a west panhandle landfall. Thinking if fay stays west and crosses over the isle of youth. Now that would be a typical scenario I could buy that one.

Please read the numerous discussions about not paying attention to the BAMS...or the CLIPPER in this type of situation. Ignore them. Act as if you don't even see them.

[ekal]

I cannot find a center at all on high-res imagery

Looks extremely broad, with little rotation evident on satellite, as Chris mentioned earlier.

Fay may be over water, but land is inhibiting inflow in most quadrants.

[NDG]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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I am afraid that the NHC is being a little conservative with Fay, by the looks of it Fay will be traveling over much more water than anticipated yesterday, over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic basin and with fairly good UL environment I don't see why would Fay not strengthen to a Cat 1 before making landfall across Cuba into the FL straights where it could continue gaining strength and becoming at least a Cat 2 Hurricane making landfall anywhere between Naples and Cedar Key. I would rather overplay it than underplay the situation.
I think the models are not doing a good job with the potential strength given the forecaste UL conditions as it moves northward off the FL west coast.
How many times have we seen storms gain strength with 20-30 knot winds in the UL because of their parallel movement to those winds it does not affect them much, if anything it helps it ventilate.

[robbielyn]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL some more models are leaning toward a west panhandle landfall. Thinking if fay stays west and crosses over the isle of youth. Now that would be a typical scenario I could buy that one.

Please read the numerous discussions about not paying attention to the BAMS...or the CLIPPER in this type of situation. Ignore them. Act as if you don't even see them.

Ok I can act as if I don't see them. But the 8am spaghetti models compared to the 5 am shows more models tracking west. And climatology tells you these storms usually head to the panhandle a west coast hit is rare

[NDG]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL some more models are leaning toward a west panhandle landfall. Thinking if fay stays west and crosses over the isle of youth. Now that would be a typical scenario I could buy that one.

Please read the numerous discussions about not paying attention to the BAMS...or the CLIPPER in this type of situation. Ignore them. Act as if you don't even see them.

Ok I can act as if I don't see them. But the 8am spaghetti models compared to the 5 am shows more models tracking west. And climatology tells you these storms usually head to the panhandle a west coast hit is rare

If there was a ridge sitting in the Carolinas right now I would believe the BAMS or NOGAPS, but there is nothing but a weakness all across the SE US.

[Air Force Met]

I cannot find a center at all on high-res imagery

Me neither. Might be real broad. I do see a lot of strato cu...and that isn't good (well..depends on your desire for Fay...I actually want to sleep next week and watch some football today...so its kinda good).

[gatorcane]

I queried all Aug-Sept storm tracks passing within 65N of Fay's 8:00AM EST position and here is what I found:

3 panhandle hits
3 west/SW coast of FL hits
3 southern FL hits including SE FL and the FL Keys
-MANY Western GOM hits.

[Sanibel]

Looks to be some stable air out to the west of the LLC on visible imagery. With tops warming...

My instinct says the ULL will feed stable air into Fay from the west - BUT - the high heat waters and good convection mass will slowly allow Fay to reorganize offshore and slowly develop. It's in the tropics. "stable air" is relative over 31* SST's. Tops warming is a d-min - probably prior to refire later today.

[gatorcane]

BTW - kudos to the NHC so far. For such a complicated and tricky track, their cone (and the line for that matter) has hardly changed since the inception of this system. Amazing how good the NHC continues to get with tracking guidance.

If anything I see it slowly shifting right but not by very much.

Here is an animated loop of the 5 day cone:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[cpdaman]

cuban radar thru 945 shows southerly showers increasing around the center

the center is just SW of the last blowup of convection (near 21/79) so just sw puts the center about 20.4/5 78.7 or so

can anyone put up a animated screen saver of this CAmaguey radar loop (i'm a bit "slow" in that regard)

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

now the ramdis visible

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

what a mess on the west and south sides geez fay you got some time today , you may want to get yourself together

[Sanibel]

Because NHC's track has been unusually accurate I'm pulling all the porch furniture and deck plants in today. I cleaned the yard yesterday and did other supply preparations.

The persisting accuracy of the track forces me to assume a hurricane here tuesday morning.

It's crazy to assume a cyclone will stay at TS level across those waters at that forward speed at this time of year.

Now the track map looks like an 8am hit of Sanibel which is hard to time evacuations over or get good sleep for.

[MWatkins]

I agree...looking at visible imagery looks like the center is up near 20.5 and 78.5, trying to redevelop convection over the center.

MW

[tgenius]

I'm hoping things stay status quo.. so long as Miami doesn't get Hurricane Watches (which could become Hurricane Warnings) We do not have to activate our BCP plan...

[Air Force Met]

BTW - kudos to the NHC so far. For such a complicated and tricky track, their cone (and the line for that matter) has hardly changed since the inception of this system. Amazing how good the NHC continues to get with tracking guidance.

If anything I see it slowly shifting right but not by very much.

Here is an animated loop of the 5 day cone:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Because once again...the consensus modeling has been very good for this storm. If you forecast down the consensus track...and the consensus track is accurate...then so is your forecast.

Since the consensus track is usually the best bet...that is the reason the NHC keeps their forecast close to it. Hate to burst bubbles here...but it really isn't rocket science. They learned the trick from the JTWC (since it worked for them)...and the models continue to improve.

[HURAKAN]

So far, so good. Fay isn't becoming a nightmare and may just be our savior by filling up Lake O!!!