ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CronkPSU]

is it just a strong wave again or is there closed circulation? what is recon saying?

[Emmett_Brown]

Have to agree that there is no clear center visible. The area MW pointed out looks as good as any...

[NDG]

Of course there is a closed circulation, but the question is where is the LLC if there is still one.

[cpdaman]

recon didn't say much (to me) they didn't fly over the center (they didn't go any further than 19.4 north) last nite , when they had the center placed at 19.6 , so perhaps we will know later this afternoon

[Dean4Storms]

This is very disorganized and I think the dry air to her west is also inhibiting convection especially on her western periphery. I can't see her strengthening too much before landfall on Cuba and then that dry air over the GOM may keep her somewhat in check before she landfalls in SW/WC FL.

[ekal]

I agree...looking at visible imagery looks like the center is up near 20.5 and 78.5, trying to redevelop convection over the center.

MW

That would be good news, as it would place the center closer to the Cuban coast.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree...looking at visible imagery looks like the center is up near 20.5 and 78.5, trying to redevelop convection over the center.

MW

That is the center.

[HURAKAN]

[Jason_B]

Fay's cloud tops are warming, be interesting to see what's left of her after she gets over Cuba.

[gatorcane]

Indeed they are and alot of the convection is on the eastern side. Latest VIS shows some convection trying to wrap around the center Mike Watkins point out above....

let's see if this is a trend and she starts wrapping all that convection on the east side to the west side to mix out the dry air to the west.

[Evil Jeremy]

Circulation looks like it is moving a little faster, now to the NW IMO. Also looks like a new burst of convection is starting over it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

I still see a WNW motion with no change in speed...

[robbielyn]

Personally I don't think the llc has completly cleared that tip just yet look for refiring this afternoon. there may be stable air ahead of it preventing rapid intensification, but it will tap in to those boiling hot waters and will get it's act together. So nothing much is happening right now, so now is a good time to get things done around the house. This afternoon we will start to see some action albeit slow

[HURAKAN]

[tgenius]

I still see a WNW motion with no change in speed...

GatorCane.. I pulled up the Vis loop.. is it me or is COC moving a hair north of the Forecast points?

[Sanibel]

19.85N-77.75W


Passing near or over Cabo Cruz, Cuba.


I suspect there will be talk in about 12 hours of reorganization and convection refire.

[wxman57]

I cannot find a center at all on high-res imagery

Me neither. I see Montego Bay, Jamaica just about 90 miles south of the NHC center has an east wind at 10 kts. Not an impressive circulation.

[gatorcane]

So here is the loop I am using. Just check the Trop Fcst Pt box to superimpose the NHC track. I see it very close or just over the second forecast point with maybe a west wobble (not movement)...in the last hour or so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

19.85N-77.75W


Passing near or over Cabo Cruz, Cuba.


I suspect there will be talk in about 12 hours of reorganization and convection refire.

what are you using or looking at to determine that, please share

[NDG]

Sorry cpdaman, I thought it would had been posted already.

Here is a radar loop from Camaguey, it does appear that the center is near 20.3N & 78.5W