ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[MWatkins]

Center is up near 20.5 78.5 plain as day on the hi-res visible...

[Bocadude85]

hmm wonder how much intensification will take place onces she clears cuba.?

[Sanibel]

what are you using or looking at to determine that, please share

NHC visible floater loop combined with center observation on cloud tops and, most importantly, NHC trop points that have been highly accurate so far.

Watkins could be right. The long-track difference is negligible. I think we'll see refire today past Cabo Cruz.

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on my amatuer opinion only I conclude the following...Fay appears to be a very sick girl right now and I wonder if it will survive the crossing of Cuba. The 11:00AM discussion should prove very interesting.

SFT

[Air Force Met]

Center is up near 20.5 78.5 plain as day on the hi-res visible...

I agree there is something there. If that is the center though...this thing is in big trouble....and has very little in the way of west winds to the south of it. Note the disorganized low level flow to the northwest of Jamaica.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[Vortex]

Center is up near 20.5 78.5 plain as day on the hi-res visible...

agree..just took a look and your right on mike.

[Jason_B]

Wouldn't be surprised if it drops to a TD over Cuba.

[stormy1970al]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL some more models are leaning toward a west panhandle landfall. Thinking if fay stays west and crosses over the isle of youth. Now that would be a typical scenario I could buy that one.

Please read the numerous discussions about not paying attention to the BAMS...or the CLIPPER in this type of situation. Ignore them. Act as if you don't even see them.

Ok I can act as if I don't see them. But the 8am spaghetti models compared to the 5 am shows more models tracking west. And climatology tells you these storms usually head to the panhandle a west coast hit is rare

Robbielyn,
AFM is wise. Always has excellent advice.

[Evil Jeremy]

When Fay does cross Cuba, it should be over a flat area. Cuba will not kill the storm, although it should weaken it. After that, it will have very warm waters to work with. It is all about the timing at this point.

[Vortex]

basd on trends this morning the euro may be on to something with a track further east than most guidance..

[cycloneye]

The 11 AM advisory has one of the forecast points as a hurricane:

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 78.6W AT 17/1500Z

[MiamiensisWx]

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...
635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

NHC mostly concurs with Mike Watkins' estimate...

[Evil Jeremy]

Hurricane Watch extended northward, and TS warning for the Keys. I think that SW Florida will get either TS or Hurricane warnings tonight, and the watches along the East coast of FL will be extended upwards and upgraded to warnings.

[HURAKAN]

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...20.5 N...78.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

[wxwonder12]

Did the NHC change at all the forcast point of entering florida on their 5 day cone map at all?

[johngaltfla]

Yup, Hurricane Watch up to my neck of the woods. I'm not shocked. I hope the Tampa crowd does not take this lightly. We have lots of jogs left in this forecast before the storm gets here.

[marciacubed]

looks like a slight shift to the right.

[Sanibel]

If that is the center then the upper feature is sheared well ESE and Fay will have trouble strengthening. ULL displacement of tops.

[Evil Jeremy]

Did the NHC change at all the forcast point of entering florida on their 5 day cone map at all?

Looks a little more SE than last time IMO.

If this thing tracks a little more north than expected, don't be surprised to see Hurricane Watches go up on the SE coast as well. Remember, all the winds with Fay are on her right side.